Yes is possible.
No its still not a given. And there is every chance it won't happen.
Even if it does happen, its likely to be limited in duration and scope. It is liable to be a week, two at a push. And not necessarily nationwide.
It absolutely is a case of media frenzy on this one.
We are in Millenium Bug territory on this one. You contigency plan so it doesn't happen. The Millenium Bug didn't happen, so people believe there was no problem, but there was no problem because the correct contingency planning was in place.
When it comes to critical infrustructure, fail safe black up plans are essential as part of responsible goverance. The fact we are seeing it, and the government are openly talking about it being a potential issue and there being so proper planning for it rather than simply saying 'no we will be fine' is a) reassuring despite the optics b) what should be happening if the risk is being taken seriously.
Here's the thing - 3% of the gas we imported was Russian, so our exposure to the problem is much more limited. Yes there is increased competition for demand of whats left but we had secure contracts for most of that, and what it means is we will pay through the nose for it, but we can still get it. This isn't the case in other places in the EU which makes it more complex for them. Reasonably we can reduce our consumption as a nation by considerably more than 3% with better efficiency WITHOUT the need to disconnect households. A lot of the rhetoric about cuts/prices is actually driving that behavioural shift anyway (those behavioural scientists who monitored covid are keeping themselves busy)
Where there is an increased danger of an issue is through a black swan type of event - this is where risk is stacked and why there is so much more need for contigency planning this year, perhaps more than others.
For example: We know that there was a stand off between the Norweigen navy and the Russian navy over the gas pipeline that supplies the UK from Norway. We know that the Russians DID successfully sabotage the Nord Stream pipe (which they'd switched off supply to several countries for already). And its difficult to patrol such a large area so there is a real risk of a sabotage.
Or if there is some sort of failure in the system either here or abroad, there are far less contigencies to source energy from alternative sources, thus making energy security more vulnerable. This is possible due to our aging infrastructure but can largely be managed and has been looked at.
A example of a black swan which is perhaps more probable here in the UK could be an extreme weather event, and if we have issues thats where they could hit us. (A very cold spell - which would ordinarily potentially cause outages, is more risky this year).
But as it stands, we have infrustrature which is aging but we should have enough capacity, if demand is down. Which its is. Several electricity generating facilities that were due to be decommissioned have had urgent reviews and they are being kept on line for slightly longer to add depth to our ability to supply energy.
Everyone should be permenantly prepared for a possible electricity cut anyway, as they happen and can't 100% be prevented.
In the medium to long term, we have issues I'm more concerned about and thats more where I take issue with government on planning and energy security issues. So I do take it seriously, and do think there is an ongoing issue.
But its not the risk that people are perceiving it to be either. Because people fail to understand the purpose of contigency planning and how it creates a paradox of creating more anxiety, but where it happens it actively reduces the risk of it playing out in a worse case situation.
As say, don't panic.