Liz Truss has resigned. Part 4: The Desolation of Boris

[sunnydaytoday0]

Continuation from last thread, for those of us following all the action on Monday.

And yes I'm a LOTR fan, so tried to continue the theme in the thread title 😉

Until he announces what he’s cutting …

It won't matter, he will say its "Global Events" etc etc and we'll all believe it....

He'll cut, then relax in 2023/24...

I don't bet but if i did, it would be the Tories win the next election, with around a 30 to 40 seat majority :(

But Starmer still leads on best prime minister 34% vs 30%

And voting intention virtually unchanged Conservatives 23% Labour 51%

So very very small 'bounce' so far but as you say early days

He won't even need to say "Global Events", he'll just say "It's Labour's fault".

Yes I know that sounds nuts, but that's how its done these days – extremely successfully.

Remember the double pass that was Brexit?

1. Tory austerity slashes services and disability benefits.

2. Johnson, Gove et al run Leave campaigns claiming people's suffering is because of the EU; paint "£350 m" on a bus; etc.

3. Tories repeat "Get Brexit done" like a doll with a string in its back and get re-elected multiple times. Despite being so split on Brexit that they've struggled to find prime ministers who had actually supported Leave.

<shrug>

It's not the only area where The Tories Done It but have successfully made out-of-power Labour carry the can. I fully expect to see this technique repeated in time for the next election. All groundwork laid by anonymous social media, of course, to get the ideas firmly entrenched before the Parliamentary party risks repeating them.

I have to hand it to the Tories, this strategy has been awesomely successful. Repugnant. But successful.

@PerkingFaintly Exactly...

After 12 years and everything worse than when the Tories first came to power, you'd think we might have learned but we haven't & i don't think we ever will.

Labours lead imho will quickly evaporate & with boundary changes next year...

Starmer also has a serious problem now that the Tories have got a leader who, whatever you think about policy etc, is at least vaguely credible. He's got himself this far by barely differentiating Labour from Tory policy at all - abstaining on corporation tax rises, supporting spycops, talking tough about protestors, abandoning his pledges re nationalisation of utilities etc. Instead, almost his entire focus has been on the poor quality of Tory leaders - Johnson's bufoonery, callous disregard at the beginning of Covid followed by law-breaking during it; Truss's manifest incompetence at considering the markets' perceptions of government decisions.

What some of us may have overlooked is just how easy this was. Not hard to paint yourself as more credible than the government when they have a clown then an idiot as leader. But by the same token, all they have to do then is get a reasonable, capable, intelligent leader (like Sunak) and then what? What does Labour offer now that the Tories don't? The answer to this is not obvious.

And it's even worse. In last week's PMQs Sunak made some digs at Starmer's record on personal credibility: his attempts to overturn Brexit before turning round and pretending to be happy with it; his support for Corbyn before stabbing him in the back; his promise to the Labour membership to spend millions on nationalisation programs before abandoning them all. Up until now the mainstream media have ignored Starmer's complete lack of personal integrity or genuine political conviction, because it's been a weapon with which to fight the left and they're happy to support him in that. But with the left now safely back in their box, if shining a light on Starmer's weaknesses can help the Tories get reelected, they'll likely oblige.

Meanwhile Sunak can't present himself as the conviction politician who was willing to lose the leadership election against Truss to admit difficult truths.

Sorry, meant Sunak CAN present himself as the conviction politician...

Unclear how a party that has made the UK a laughing stock in terms of economic policy (Brexit) and global leadership (repeated governments with no mandate, so many front bench politicians clearly not up to job) can in any way be described as ‘successful’. That Braverman is still in a job - extraordinary.

I think a lot will come down to money. The triple lock, no increase in tax bands (effective tax increase), mortgages (increase in rates next week) and bills. Sunak will be tested on that. It is easy to be popular when spending money. It is lot harder when you cut, and people feel poorer.

On a side note it'll be interesting to see how much interest rates will increase next week, especially now the Bank of England's decision is coming before rather than after the Autumn budget. I'm guessing 0.50 - 0.75%.

Successful at getting elected - particularly when you consider exactly the factors you mention, and how many compelling reasons there are for anyone even slightly rational not to elect them. I think that was @PerkingFaintly's point.

Sure, but for most people - and in reality overall - there are only two options. And what are Labour offering that promises to change any of that?

I agree that there are only two options, but the perception of being disconnected from the pain people experience financially is particularly Conservative. Starmer has to make his case, but when I hear the Conservatives say how compassionate they are, you know they are very worried.

That class of people who supported Johnson and gave him his majority, turning away from Labour, are most likely to be badly affected.

If elections are won in the centre, then the group of voters who will paying most are the middle classes.

These are people who vote for financial stability. But on a best case scenario they will face hundreds of pounds more in expenses per month, and that is before interest rate raises, inflation and bill increases. If your government's decision making costs you hundreds a month and you get less, then you are in real trouble in electoral terms.

Meanwhile Sunak can present himself as the conviction politician who was willing to lose the leadership election against Truss to admit difficult truths

Sunak has just u-turned on charging for missed NHS appointments, despite promising this on live TV... this highlights Labour's problem, had Starmer done similar, the printed media would crucify him.

This i think explains Starmer's caution.

The Tories, regardless of leader always get a free pass, pretty much whatever they do, even Truss got away lightly, considering what she did.

So the public, who pretty much aren't interested in politics, don't get the full story.

Not if the message, backed by the media, is that these increases are as a result of "Global Events" and the UK is doing better than many in comparison... & Brexit will make us even better off....

the Govt is saying that mortgage rates are lower here than in the USA (as if these economies are similar)... not saying UK rates are higher than most comparable EU countries....

No one is pulling them up on this, its just nodded through.

If Sunak is smart he will do a windfall tax. He has 50 billion a year to find, and a windfall tax on energy producers, not time limited, would go a long way to addressing some of that.

Again, a picture of the queen sitting alone at Prinde Philips funeral, Boris raising a glass and Sunak grinning with the caption "fixed penalty notices for partying" will do the job.

Nothing speaks louder than an image.

Hilarious that republican MN would use the Queen for their cause.

I'm not a republican, I'm a military brat.

And what are Labour offering that promises to change any of that?

Currently nothing, they don’t have to until a GE is called. And they’d be stupid to offer anything now because the Tories would just steal it. They were pretty quick to swoop in on the windfall tax.

Initial reaction looks encouraging on YouGov

Long time to go and as policies come up his race and wealth aren’t the only things anymore. We’ll see, hard to say at this point.

I know a way to increase GDP by 4% and add £40 billion to tax receipts…

Whether the Tories are seen as even remotely electable comes down to 2 main factors that have nothing to do with current polling:

1. Whether Sunak manages to keep his factionalised dysfunctional party together - he was a competent chancellor but how good a manager of internecine squabbling is he, does he have the charisma to compel some semblance of unity? 2. The extent of the economic pain they inflict.

Of course polling is only a snapshot. I didn’t say otherwise. Rather that we’ll see, it’s some time off.

That goes for both parties. Glad he’s hitting some key elements though.