Black Monday anyone? The tories should be in jail

[Upthebracket22]

The pound is now at its lowest point against the dollar since decimalisation in 1971 at 1.03. It’s probably going lower and the Bank of England will likely need to step in with an emergency interest rate rise today. Black Monday possibly?

All because of the mini budget on Friday. The Tories should be in jail. Especially if their rich backers were shorting the pound as it appears to get rich.

I love it when people talk about 'rich Tory backers shorting the pound' thus showing that they have no idea how the financial markets work.

The current sterling crisis started when the Asian money markets closed last Wednesday.

the real weathervane to watch is 10 year gilt yields - currently above 4%. Remember what happened with Greek bond yields in 2014.

Yes we are in a sterling crisis and the BoE will step in to stabilise.

The derivatives market is pricing in a 1.5 percentage point increase by November. Rates will top 6% by May.

Tighten your belts folks we're in for a ride :-) but I'm not really sure how you'd put anyone in jail for it.

Problem is we have borrowed way too much since 1997 and we are now going to pay for it

You seem confused.

Cutting taxes does not happen in isolation

Having more income after tax is great, but not at the expense of inflation wiping out all of that NOMINAL gain in income.

How hard is this to understand?

The only people who will have a net real gain in income until 2026 are the ones making over £150k

Everybody else is poorer in real terms.

Do you get it now?

not to mention the long term decimation of public services that is going to be necessary to pay for it.

That's what I don't get. People go "ooh, must vote Tory because Labour would increase my tax bill by X-hundred pounds!" with one half of their brain. And then with the other half of their brain they complain about the state of the NHS (which Labour started, against Tory objection, and reinvigorated under Blair/Brown after years of Tory decline), public transport, schools etc.

And the two halves of their brain just manage to never talk to each other.

Problem is we have borrowed way too much since 1997 and we are now going to pay for it

Not if we can get our grandchildren to.

Problem is we have borrowed way too much since 1997 and we are now going to pay for it

Ah, so it IS all Gordon Brown's fault!

I KNEW IT!!!

Why do some of the staunch Tory supporters on here think we can have an economy like the US? Have they never realised that energy is sold in $s

I wouldn't say that. Brown for the most part continued the neo-Thatcherite monetary policies that he'sd inherited.

he was, unfortunately, a big fan of Modern Monetary Theory which we now know to be a mirage.

he allowed the remnants of our manufacturing sector to decline but this arguably has been a global issue due to the rebalancing of manufacturing towards the East.

Only Germany has continued to be a strong manufacturer in Europe and that is only because they could use their strength to impose their exports on weaker, southern European economies. Now that Vlad has them by the short and culries, their dominance is coming to an end and they are having to step in to nationalise their faltering energy firms.

My point being that the West's stagnation is a global issue that's been going on since the late 70s and I don't think it's helpful to blame Brown, who was really just another common or garden neoliberal.

I picked 1997 becayse it was the last time we had a surplus. Ever since then the deficit has widened and widened and now is at a point where the international money markets have lost confidence.

The current sterling crisis started when the Asian money markets closed last Wednesday

The £/$ rate didn’t really change much weds-Fri am though, it only really started falling after KK started speaking, and continued to fall after that.

Thank you for a clear breakdown. That made a whole lot more sense to me.

The two points are interrelated but have different impacts.

I read the trickle down economics approach has never worked. That may factor in too…

I cover bond markets and stg was pricing in tax cuts as they had been flagged. However, the degree to which they slashed taxes then sent it plunging today

so 'tldr basically we are royally fucked. Credit maxed out, forced firesale economy, mass business failure and unemployment and a housing market crash.

Halifax and Virgin Money have announced they’re ceasing mortgages to new customers until the situation becomes clearer.

Safe to say this mini budget has been an utter disaster.

The pound is currently at USD 106.75 according to Bloomberg.

@Kissingfrogs25 is another contributor notable for decent writing but utterly devoid of analytical thought. Goady. Even claims to know that @Fladdermus can’t find Swden on a map, when @Fladdermus is actually Swedish.

All the recent threads about government policy have at least one such contributor. Maybe it’s the same person under different names? Maybe they are from Conservative HQ? I really think that when it becomes clear they will never make a meaningful point it is best to ignore them.

I'm going America in the next month. I'm wondering what to do, but dollars now or see if it improves

Well a good thing that Truss has done is open discussion about taxes and public services so people can start making those connections in their brains.

Tax is not a dirty word! It’s needed for a stable society.

Tax is the privilege paid to enjoy a stable society.

Some key workers like teachers, nhs staff and police officers could actually end up paying more tax because the 1% income tax rate is offset by freezing the threshold at which you start paying tax.

Research by Lib Dems published in Guardian

All the recent threads about government policy have at least one such contributor. Maybe it’s the same person under different names?

During partygate the same couple of boris apologists with exactly the same writing style sock-puppeted relentlessly, so nothing would surprise me.

Remember: there are some for who all is going swimmingly. Who cares if it's a few of a few ?

Sir Keir when he wins his landslide needs to listen to progressive forces in his party and beyond such as Andy Burnham looking for electoral reform. Establish a Royal Commission on electoral reform, vote it through Parliament and have the next election done on PR terms. Also, having a government of national unity, good tories welcome (the rest in that disused jail were bringing back) and a 10-year plan for rebuilding our economy and society.

Probably involves rejoining the single market, and mass housebuilding programme making the UK an attractive place to invest again thinks Atlee's post ww2 government that built our NHS and welfare state.

The working title maybe For the Many not the Few!

@Grumpybutfunny people who have zero hour contracts which by the very nature means that their hours on a week on week basis, are just marked down by the government as having done the minimum because if they don’t put that tick in the box the weeks that they do indeed only work 16 hours those people would get absolutely no assistance from the government. In this scenario the reality of it is it’s the universal credits people being kind to them because they do in fact work full time hours every week.

Absolutely a smash-and-grab.

They're in your house looking for valuables to take and sell.

You will do nothing though, as you don't believe your eyes...

Wake up UK! 😩

Direct, verbatim quote from yesterday’s interview. I heard it with my own ears. Does it miraculously become fiction when the Guardian prints it?

Virgin Money and Halifax have just pulled their mortgages for new customers. Cannot offer them in the current volatile economic situation. 1922 letters being submitted (allegedly). BOE and Treasury forced to make statements to try and calm the market.

I am not an economist but this is all shit scary, to me. This is not how a stable country operates.

I found this on Reddit today -

Are UK citizens going to walk out into the streets in masses, demand that this shit show stops now and get Truss to step down?

Or are UK citizens simply going to keep swallowing this BS nonsense from their Gov that will ruin their country's future?

Anyone out there with GCSE Economics ? A C will do. Please pop round to Number 10 and explain to Mr Kwarteng How Things Work. He needs some help.