Page 17 | Black Monday anyone? The tories should be in jail

Upthebracket22 · 2022-09-26T05:51:16+00:00

The pound is now at its lowest point against the dollar since decimalisation in 1971 at 1.03. It’s probably going lower and the Bank of England will likely need to step in with an emergency interest rate rise today. Black Monday possibly? All because of the mini budget on Friday. The Tories should be in jail. Especially if their rich backers were shorting the pound as it appears to get rich.

the80sweregreat · 26/09/2022 11:26

Most jobs are not offering full time hours these days.

icelolly12 · 26/09/2022 11:26

The idea is to fire up growth, and get the country into better shape and then tackle those on benefits and in poverty. I am afraid we haven't got time to wait for those at the bottom of the ladder to fire up their ambitions and go and take one of the million or so jobs that are currently available, and help with the recovery effort. We need action right now. By the time of the next election, most of the middle classes will feel the benefits, the rest will have to wait or work harder.

Growth comes from investing in public services and people. Free or cheap transport to get to work. Healthcare for a healthy population. Free or cheap childcare so parents can work.

It doesn't come from cutting taxes to the wealthy and giving no help to those at the bottom.

Blossomtoes · 26/09/2022 11:28

Starmer has agreed with many of the policies with the exception of the 45% tax rate removal

And the small matter of not borrowing the cost of the energy price freeze but taxing the providers’ £170 billion profits to pay for it. Not much at all really.

Carmakomelian · 26/09/2022 11:29

Fladdermus · 26/09/2022 11:10

A a swede living in Sweden and an elected member of my local community, I'd say yes I know quite a lot about Sweden and our issues. How about you?

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Burn.

Fladdermus · 26/09/2022 11:29

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:26

I will ignore your untrue and petty comment about my parents. My family are among the kindest and most liberal people you are ever likely to meet. I don't think you even know where Sweden is on the map, much less live there, otherwise you would be fully aware of the issues, and yet you seem oblivious to the real issues - why do you think the far right are doing so well? Because it is going so well?? Are you kidding me?

Italy is just about to have their first ever far right government since Mussolini but you are so narrow in your thinking you can't see beyond these shores - wake up for fucks sake and smell the coffee. Your Corbynista views are not working or appealing to anyone! You have been out of office for 12 solid years - what does that tell you?

The opposition are a bunch of badly dressed, mumbling misfits with no plan and no policies. You still have no chance of winning. That is the sad part of this, the Cons can do virtually whatever they like and still win as there is no opposition to worry about!!!!

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Oh dear. You ok hun?

Quincythequince · 26/09/2022 11:30

poetryandwine · 26/09/2022 11:22

@sst1234 has made a massive unwarranted assumption, reflecting a major gap in her argument. She says (I paraphrase) that growth is the only way out, and that the problem we who disagree have is that we don’t like this.

Well, @sst1234 I happen to agree that ultimately growth is the way out. But the idea that tax cuts primarily benefitting the rich, aka trickle down economics, leads to growth, lost whatever traction it had over 35 years ago when it led the USA into economic gloom.

The only economist @Quincythequince and I can find happy with this plan is Patrick Minford, an Applied Economist at Cardiff Business School. The list of distinguished economists condemning it is not short. One of the best articles for the public is from the Nobel laureate (Economics) Paul Krugman in the New York Times. Unfortunately it is behind a pay wall. I would welcome advice on extracting it for MN. Then there is the striking feedback from the markets, which have neither ethics nor feelings.

@sst1234 skipped over these points entirely, preferring to bandy about cheap accusations of hysteria.

Thanks poetry very useful posts.

poetryandwine · 26/09/2022 11:30

In my first post today I also quoted the pound at USD 1.03. A PP said I was mistaken and she was correct - it had already recovered from that. She quoted 1.08 and it is now at 1.07.

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:31

icelolly12 · 26/09/2022 11:26

The idea is to fire up growth, and get the country into better shape and then tackle those on benefits and in poverty. I am afraid we haven't got time to wait for those at the bottom of the ladder to fire up their ambitions and go and take one of the million or so jobs that are currently available, and help with the recovery effort. We need action right now. By the time of the next election, most of the middle classes will feel the benefits, the rest will have to wait or work harder.

Growth comes from investing in public services and people. Free or cheap transport to get to work. Healthcare for a healthy population. Free or cheap childcare so parents can work.

It doesn't come from cutting taxes to the wealthy and giving no help to those at the bottom.

Who the fuck is going to pay for your free transport, your extra benefits and public services, your good healthcare? You are absolutely deluded, and I mean that kindly. Your thinking is so redundant of all reality. It is Father Christmas policies.

You need the wealth creators, the cutting edge industries - they make the difference between having a welfare system and having nothing.

You are still living in the land of fairy tales and nanny provides everything, you have no grasp at all on the actual fiscal reality.

1245J · 26/09/2022 11:31

Well, interesting. I have just got off the phone on a client matter. Working in corporate finance. Work on an inward investment of £300m at Heads of Terms stage has now suspended. It is going back to the core investors to decide, but likely now to be mothballed until November 2023 at the earliest, might even be 2024. Reason - the UK underlying finance rate projections are too unclear now and so the money is going to the US.

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:32

Fladdermus · 26/09/2022 11:29

Oh dear. You ok hun?

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I am feeling bloody marvellous!
This has been a long time coming 😘

Foronenightonly01 · 26/09/2022 11:33

@Fladdermus - whether you’re right or wrong your starting to come across as a bit unpleasant and childish. Why not keep to actual debate…

Foronenightonly01 · 26/09/2022 11:33

*you’re

newrubylane · 26/09/2022 11:34

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:09

The idea is to fire up growth, and get the country into better shape and then tackle those on benefits and in poverty. I am afraid we haven't got time to wait for those at the bottom of the ladder to fire up their ambitions and go and take one of the million or so jobs that are currently available, and help with the recovery effort. We need action right now.

By the time of the next election, most of the middle classes will feel the benefits, the rest will have to wait or work harder. Don't forget for the huge grants and extra money coming their way for energy etc etc for those really struggling.

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Unemployment is at its lowest percentage rate since 1974. But we do have a smaller labour force, mostly due to over 50s taking early retirement. Also, a lot of liquidity in the labour market, mainly due to Covid and Brexit (though the shortfall of EU workers is now being made up for by non-EU workers, luckily). Not sure what this budget is going to do to help with any of that...

Carmakomelian · 26/09/2022 11:34

Ponoka7 · 26/09/2022 11:24

@Kissingfrogs25
"I am afraid we haven't got time to wait for those at the bottom of the ladder to fire up their ambitions and go and take one of the million or so jobs that are currently available"

How many of those job bs give enough money to live on ? I'm helping someone job search at the moment and there are very few jobs over 26 hours a week. Supermarkets are offering 7-16 hours. There's very little in the way of top-up benefits for people who don't have children. The gig economy and the jobs available have been completely ignored by the Conservatives and is just getting worse.

Have you considered that the people at the bottom really don't have time to wait for the wealth to trickle down from the top (via a nice villa in the south of France, and a few offshore investments)

IndigoC · 26/09/2022 11:34

sst1234 · 26/09/2022 07:38

The pound didn’t drop just because of mini budget. The bigger problem for the markets is that interest rates are not going up at the same velocity as the US. If you’re going to have the largesse of printing £450bn in two years to shit down the economy, then rates have to rise to deal with it. The US can afford to to do this because it has a strong economy right now, because believe it or not their economy is structured in exactly the way that people around here don’t like. There is no easy way out of this. You don’t like it, but growth is the only way out of it. This low productivity economy has been on QE life support for too long. The re structuring of the economy though lower taxation and big investment (private and public) is needed. That latter is yet to happen and takes a lot longer.

But why is it so difficult to have rational debate here. When you read the comments on this thread, it’s hysterical shrieking.

The key difference is most Americans take out 30 year fixed mortgages so the US can raise rates without impacting current mortgage holders. Here it’s going to quickly catalyse a serious recession. The current projection is now for 5.5% bank rates here, which would mean 7-8% interest rates. That will decimate the housing market, driving many into forced sales.

poetryandwine · 26/09/2022 11:35

1245J · 26/09/2022 11:31

Well, interesting. I have just got off the phone on a client matter. Working in corporate finance. Work on an inward investment of £300m at Heads of Terms stage has now suspended. It is going back to the core investors to decide, but likely now to be mothballed until November 2023 at the earliest, might even be 2024. Reason - the UK underlying finance rate projections are too unclear now and so the money is going to the US.

Very sorry to hear this, 1245J. I think there is much more to come.

Endlesssummer2022 · 26/09/2022 11:36

‘Would love to hear what Rishi Sunak has to say about current situation - he is keeping very quiet!’

He’s one of the reasons we’re in this mess and have a kamikaze budget to try and sort it out. It’s been one increasingly worse strategic error after another since the Conservatives first came in under David Cameron. They have all had a part to play. Brexit, Furlough and other giveaways whilst keeping interest rates so low for so long has snowballed into where we are today.

Roomytrouser · 26/09/2022 11:36

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:09

The idea is to fire up growth, and get the country into better shape and then tackle those on benefits and in poverty. I am afraid we haven't got time to wait for those at the bottom of the ladder to fire up their ambitions and go and take one of the million or so jobs that are currently available, and help with the recovery effort. We need action right now.

By the time of the next election, most of the middle classes will feel the benefits, the rest will have to wait or work harder. Don't forget for the huge grants and extra money coming their way for energy etc etc for those really struggling.

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Exactly, it’s an “easy” boost to the headline figure which has no benefit or is detrimental to the majority. Economic growth is only viewed as a positive if the benefits are shared. Otherwise it’s just wealth hoarding by the few. There’s no guarantee that this extra income is going to be invested in the UK.

Carmakomelian · 26/09/2022 11:36

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:31

Who the fuck is going to pay for your free transport, your extra benefits and public services, your good healthcare? You are absolutely deluded, and I mean that kindly. Your thinking is so redundant of all reality. It is Father Christmas policies.

You need the wealth creators, the cutting edge industries - they make the difference between having a welfare system and having nothing.

You are still living in the land of fairy tales and nanny provides everything, you have no grasp at all on the actual fiscal reality.

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Except that logic only works if we have a decent taxation system, and importantly, don't cut taxes for the highest earners

CherryGenoa · 26/09/2022 11:38

Growth comes from investing in public services and people. Free or cheap transport to get to work. Healthcare for a healthy population. Free or cheap childcare so parents can work.

It doesn't come from cutting taxes to the wealthy and giving no help to those at the bottom.

Exactly, successful rural SMEs in the south of England where I am can’t fulfil orders because they can’t recruit staff. Brexit didn’t help at all but so many of the population have caring responsibilities limiting the hours they can do without affordable child or elder care, or can’t get to work at the right times because rural transport is so poor. Investíng in these things would free up more workers and would help the economy much more than giving more money to hugh earners.

Carmakomelian · 26/09/2022 11:38

What do we think interest rates will peak at? And how many people will lose their homes thanks to the "Conservatives".

Blossomtoes · 26/09/2022 11:38

Foronenightonly01 · 26/09/2022 11:33

@Fladdermus - whether you’re right or wrong your starting to come across as a bit unpleasant and childish. Why not keep to actual debate…

Think you tagged the wrong poster there - surely you meant @Kissingfrogs25?

Alexandra2001 · 26/09/2022 11:40

Kissingfrogs25 · 26/09/2022 11:31

Who the fuck is going to pay for your free transport, your extra benefits and public services, your good healthcare? You are absolutely deluded, and I mean that kindly. Your thinking is so redundant of all reality. It is Father Christmas policies.

You need the wealth creators, the cutting edge industries - they make the difference between having a welfare system and having nothing.

You are still living in the land of fairy tales and nanny provides everything, you have no grasp at all on the actual fiscal reality.

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Nonsense, you need a balanced economy, sure you need wealth creators but you also need a skilled and healthy workforce.

Its not one or the other but with govt borrowing costs through the roof, the wealthy likely to leave the UK and the lower paid not wanting to come here as the £ falls, we wont get either.....

Its actually Sunak who called Truss's policies "Fairy tale" economics.

Blossomtoes · 26/09/2022 11:40

That will decimate the housing market, driving many into forced sales.

To whom? Who’s going to buy all those houses?

BirmaBrite · 26/09/2022 11:41

Well, interesting. I have just got off the phone on a client matter. Working in corporate finance. Work on an inward investment of £300m at Heads of Terms stage has now suspended. It is going back to the core investors to decide, but likely now to be mothballed until November 2023 at the earliest, might even be 2024. Reason - the UK underlying finance rate projections are too unclear now and so the money is going to the US.

But surely they should be willing to wait and see how it all pans out, just because it isn't clear now, doesn't mean it won't all work out marvellously at some undefined point in the future