Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

He's got a small willy though. Not much to wave there.

Hope not. The thought scares me, but I tell myself, 'well, if Stalin didn't, Putin probably won't'.

RTT? A poster said that if Putin uses a (as in one) nuclear weapon, then Russia will be flattened. I don't think that would happen. Flattening Russia wouldn't benefit anyone. The usual thoughtless gung ho rhetoric. We need actual grown- ups holding sensible negotiations.

No idea of the back story here but can only assume when ppl refer to Russia being flattened it’s referring to if putin did nuke someone every country would nuke Russia. No idea if that would actually be true but this is assumptions about people’s references.

Can anyone explain what’s actually going on here. Everyone in the west apart from Ukraine are just going about their merry business and don’t really care about Russia. Obviously most care about what putin is doing to Ukraine but that’s it. You read the news, make a inner brain head shake of disapproval, think about the poor Ukrainians for a brief moment and move on until the next day.

And I am not trying to make light of the situation. It’s truly horrific. But I mean Russia really isn’t on anyone’s minds if it wasn’t for this Ukraine situation so why does he have a vendetta here. Most people are just trying to get on, do the school run, not fuck up at work and remember to pick up a pint of milk. Why does he think the world revolves round Russia?

On one level I think there are 1,000,001 different things that could go wrong from it not launching to it being shot down over their territory leaving them to deal with the fall out. Rationally having seen how awful their equipment is he shouldn’t do it, but he’s not exactly rational. I think the chances of him doing it are small, the chances of him doing it ‘successfully’ - in his terms - are tiny.

Having followed this fiasco very closely since it began, frankly, I'd be surprised if Putin had any functional nukes. God knows, the rest of their equipment is falling apart.

Putin trying to be Billy BigBollocks

That is the kind of rhetoric I would expect from crazed putin propagandists. I would file all such statements in that box.

See failed launch of Russian air defence missile in Ukraine. Won't fancy a nuclear missle boomeranging back on Russian oil.

My last post was meant to quote notdaddycool.

No

If the US keeps helping Ukraine then yes, I have NO doubt he will. The US needs to back off.

No, I don't think that is what would happen. It would depend on where he decided to strike, but assuming it was a low-yield strike somewhere unpopulated- the basis of the RAND war games I've looked at- then NATO would have to think strategically about how to respond. In the scenarios described, the responses considered were proportionate, not necessarily lobbing everything we have at Russia in any and all scenarios.

This is not to say that there are any scenarios where the use of nuclear weapons wouldn't be a disaster- it is extremely dangerous for any country to get the idea that 'limited' nuclear use could ever be something to be contemplated to achieve a result.

Just the US? It is not just the US arming Ukraine. The Western world is pretty united on this front. It is not NATO either. It is not US/NATO against Russia. That is Russian rhetoric.

Whatever you think about the post and it's place in this thread, that is one fucking hollow-souled comment.

I hope not. I see a mad man cornered and losing and that worries me. I just hope not. We have to stand and support Ukraine in this

I work on the basis that Putin is usually five moves ahead. An off-ramp is essential.

Hopefully he’s too busy writing condolence letters to the families of people who have fallen out of windows, fallen down stairs, drowned in swimming pools, etc.

Surely there has to come a point where even his most ardent supporters think “wtf”?

🙄

If the US keeps helping Ukraine then yes, I have NO doubt he will. The US needs to back off.

The value of the dollar has shot up again today. Funny that.

🤦🏻‍♀️

Naive and quite frankly pathetic post

Give your head a shake

Russia will be far more successful playing the long game of rocketing inflation in the west and high energy prices - I’d actually be more concerned about China invading Taiwan where 90% of microchips are made.

That teamed with the current cost of living crisis would make any form of comfortable living completely inaccessible for the majority of people in the west.

I believe Putin is playing the long game - Russia are like Vietnam where they just have so many troops to sacrifice. His military equipment is old so he will just drag this out as long as the rest of the world suffers economically.

Starting nuclear war, creating an everlasting nuclear winter and destroying the lifestyle his oligarch backers enjoy isn’t the plan.

@Bus5 - I’m going to apologise for my above post. I responded before reading the rest of the thread (I should know better by now!).

I’m sorry you’re feeling that way with young children and anxiety - it can’t be easy and it’s understandable. AIBU can be a harsh place to post, so maybe just bear that in mind - that’s not a criticism of your post, just a heads up that you might get jumped on (which I did).

Anyway, there have been a few good posts on here offering views as to why it’s unlikely, hopefully they give a small measure of comfort. Personally, I’m going with the “their kit isn’t up to scratch” approach and ploughing my way through the never-ending stuff that needs to be done in the house/garden etc. I find getting pissed off with endless chores is a good distraction!

Putin was being used by his so-called allies as a test cattle prod to the west, he failed to destroy and consume, despite momentarily stunning the herd, who are now tougher, stronger and more aware and confident than ever. Watch how quickly his 'allies' queue up to stab him in the back and try to take his place. Putin is finished and nuclear threats just make him look more pathetic. Like a flea riddled starving rat waving a twig in front of a wolf.