Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

He is being cornered.

He will retaliate.

Sad time for the world.

Ultimately though the decision on using nuclear weapons doesn't just lie with him though.

However you assume he is surrounded by sane peoole who don't support him.

However there are those who totally agree and support him.

They have been brain washed into thinking Russia needs to do this.

I don’t understand why Russia hasn’t crushed Ukraine. I thought Russia was a massive military power, and a dictatorship in all but name that cares little about it’s ordinary people and their resources when it comes to this sort of madness. So why aren’t they winning? Surely they have the resources and the reckless disregard to?

Putin’s Generals will have places in his bunker. They won’t suffer for pressing the button. I know he’s as mad as a box of frogs, but he also is at the stage of dictatorship where he just shoots anyone who disagrees with him or his loony evil genius plots? In which case, there isn’t going to be a lot of opposition at any level, is there? It’s all a bit bleak out there (I may have missed something obvious. I don’t watch much news. There’s too much inane filler and it’s not very informative)

I know what you mean, a situation of him rather pressing the button than being defeated or any sign of it, he is crazy and it's scary

No of course not as he can’t do it alone he needs three of them and they all have wives and kids, wider families. It’s mutually assured destruction, a Detterrant, Russia would be gone seconds later. So no.

This is really interesting!

I wanna say no, but I also thought he was too clever to invade Ukraine, which was really stupid 🤔

I’m a bit worried he may actually be mad, like psychopath mad.

Well he is a nutcase and possibly mentally unstable too so i wouldn’t put anything past him.

I still think it’s unlikely though

I don't think so. I think a really important thing to bear in mind is that these speeches are also designed for domestic consumption. It's really essential for Putin to persuade the Russian public that the West poses an existential threat to their country, and talking about the threat of nuclear war is a good way to keep people believing the war is necessary. Ordinary people in Russia will be just as terrified by the idea of nuclear war as we are.

In fact, I remember reading an interesting study carried out after the Cold War that studied the fears of teenagers in Russia and (I think) the US. The most common fear in American teenagers was the death of their parents, with nuclear war second. The results were the opposite in Russia- teenagers there were most afraid of nuclear war. Those teenagers are now adults who will remember that terror, and I suspect playing on those fears is partly a control tactic. I don't know if you've ever watched Russian state TV (I don't recommend it if you're nervous) but it's full of outlandish discussions of Russia's nuclear capabilities and contemplation of a nuclear conflict. This is for domestic viewing, so it must serve some purpose, in Putin's mind at least, to keep ordinary Russians afraid of nuclear war.

I also find it comforting to remember that we've been very, very close to nuclear war before and always stepped back from the brink. Nixon actually sent nuclear-armed bombers to fly directly at Soviet airspace during the Cold War to try and intimidate them and we're all still here.

Putin was always going to rattle the sabre- I'm actually surprised that he hasn't rattled it more. But as far as I'm aware, there has been absolutely no change in Russia's nuclear stance beyond some fighting talk from Putin. I'm not saying we shouldn't take the threat seriously, but we've been here before, and here we are still alive.

If you're anxious, I think it's best to disengage with it if you can. He's rattled the sabre before, and he's going to do plenty more rattling IMO. Best to be prepared for that and try not to let it get to you too much. It is unnerving but it isn't unexpected. He's trying to mess with your head- don't let him!

Follow the money and see where this latest ‘news’ leads to.

The last few crises helped the banks, big pharma and big defence. Whose turn is it now to have a payday?

It’s not a conspiracy theory. It’s realpolitik.

I think world wise there are more weapons pointed at Russia, he would be stupid to try it .

Those saying that nobody with "wives and kids" would help push the button are very naive. Ambitious people can get to the point where they're prepared to throw a lot under the bus to get closer to power.

There would be nothing to have power of if they did that. Russia would cease to exist as much as we would.

Oh, I agree - my point is that they're entirely not rational - but that they're unlikely to be sentimental types in this kind of situation.

Also. I wouldn't rely on this if I was someone responsible for making strategic decisions, but I'm not so I don't see anything wrong with being comforted by the thought. When the war began, we were expecting something totally different from the Russian armed forces to what actually transpired. If they neglected their conventional equipment to the extent we've seen, I do rather wonder whether their nuclear capabilities are what they're cracked up to be. As I say, I wouldn't bank on it, but there's sod all I can do about it and it's a soothing thought.

Serious question (as I can see there are some here who know/understand all of this better than I)

If it got to the point where world leaders were satisfied that he was going to do it - wouldn't they then just meet his demands? God knows what they are btw, I had to tune out of this last time it came up as I had began having panic attacks. Bastard.

I know people shouldn't bow down to a bully but a (very selfish and cowardly) part of me thinks for christ sake just give him Ukraine and piss off. It's mindbloggling to me how the rest of the world are at risk over this.

They won't suffer immediately but they would when they eventually had to leave the bunker to a nuclear wasteland. It wouldn't be a case of retreating to a bunker, having a nuclear war and then emerging unscathed when it's all over I don't think. Starting a nuclear war would mean sacrificing their own futures, bunker or no bunker.

NO

I think he may well, he's reaching nothing to lose territory. it's time for NATO boots on the ground now, we are going to have to fight.

But surely NATO boots on the ground would be taken as the West initiating war directly with Russia? So I don't think that's likely.

I think it's inevitable, so we should take the initiative and fight on our terms, not his.

I wonder the same thing…

If, in some crazy parallel universe, Putin did actually press the button (gosh I hope not), where would he aim?

Would you have given France to Hitler ? They won’t stop at Ukraine if they’re allowed to “win” this. Putin will only listen to a robust response, nothing less.