Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

We have to remember that there is a chain of command and that it is likely, if not probable, that when Putin gives the order he will be disobeyed and overthrown at the point. Putin also knows, of course, that the West's most destructive weapons are pointing right at him.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/07/biden-putin-nuclear-threats-tactical-strike-us-response-analysis

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/07/intense-dread-and-infighting-among-russian-elites-as-putins-war-falters

Two nice pieces on the topic though neither comes up with any meaningful answers. But both well researched esp. the second piece.

The trouble is....we don't know whether any of those close to Putin would agree to a strike even as a way of winning favour with Putin. Yes, at the top everyone is horrified at the war, but its going on and mobilization though badly done is happening. That was a red line for Putin but he has crossed it. Very hard to predict

My grandparents and likely yours grew up with war in Europe and the Nazis killing on an industrial scale in the heart of the continent. Many other generations also grew up in the face of war, plague and pestilence. I don't mean to be flippant about your fears, but I wouldn't worry about our children growing up in 'a world like this' when the world has always been like this.

I know, you’re right and I know that there are people who are actually affected by it whereas I’m sitting in the comfort of my home worrying about something that probably won’t happen.

No, only USA has first strike policy .

No. I really dont.

Honestly the headlines have been even more irresponsible of late.

Can I just ask why is everyone so sure putin is on his way out is he confirmed to be deathly ill ?

No it isn’t confirmed and he’s been rumoured to be at deaths door for years.

Big explosions on the bridge joining Crimea to Russia this morning, interesting to see how that develops.

This was a sobering read in today's Telegraph.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/07/west-denial-putins-nuclear-bombs/

Putin’s dreams – of Ukraine reincorporated into Russia, of breaking Nato, of Russia leading a global anti-Western alliance – are collapsing around him. We do not know exactly what will come next, but we know disaster for Russia’s imploding armed forces probably awaits and that at some point Ukraine’s armed forces will probably break Russia’s land corridor linking Crimea to the Donbas.
At that point, Putin will make one of the most fateful decisions of the century: whether to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.
I spent parts of our Tory party conference in the company of Ukrainian MPs. Our Ukrainian friends believed that the nuclear decision point would come sooner rather than later. I cannot say definitively whether Putin will use nuclear weapons, but I know the best way to reduce the risk of such an extraordinarily dangerous decision will be for the collective West to take this threat seriously.
We live in serious times. Saying Putin is bluffing is no longer serious.

Bob Seely is Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight and sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee. He has a PhD from King's College London in Russian military strategy

We live in very serious times and we are led by Truss and the Conservative party. We can only hope that Biden and the top EU leaders can find a way to move to some kind of settlement with Russia. And what about the Ukrainians in Ukraine? Would they really choose nuclear destruction for many of them rather than some form of compromise? It was online that some top expert believes that the decision to use nuclear weapons has already been made.

Most experts are clear that the decision to use weapons of mass destruction hasn’t yet been made. There are many red lines that have already been crossed without escalation to that degree.

In terms of what the Ukrainians want they’ve made it abundantly clear that they want their country back and fuck me do they deserve it. No compromise with someone like Putin is futile because he can’t be trusted to abide by it. He would use any agreement to regroup and come back harder. Experts in geopolitics will be working tirelessly to negate the risks but I would be almost certain that the solution won’t be found in capitulating to Putin.

Just a thought. So from what I understand it isn’t just a case of putin pressing a red button to fire a nuke but that there’s a chain and other people have to do their part. I’ve heard people on different threads saying that hopefully someone would take him out or stop him but what if he just has yes people around him or gets people in power who are exactly like him. I saw on another thread that Kadyrov and Prighozin could end up leading the military and that things would get really bad and escalate.

What are peoples thoughts on this? Sorry if it makes no sense. I’m just very anxious about it all.

I'd be very surprised if most Ukrainians wouldn't prefer being part of Russia to seeing themselves and everyone they know die of radiation poisoning.

Just wondering how the average Russian person is feeling ! Watching the mother’s screaming about their sons being conscripted was bad enough . Hopefully it will come a time where everyone has had enough and will revolt ! If Putin is stupid enough to order a nuclear attack in Ukraine I think all hell will break lose .

Putin is currently like a wounded animal, so I wouldn't completely rule it out. However nuclear weapons have come a long way and it's no longer a case of nuclear holocaust or nothing. I can't see him launching all out nuclear war on the world, but part of me wonders if he might just be mad enough to use tactical battlefield nukes on Ukraine. The would be terrible of course and lead to many deaths. I still don't think it's very likely, but I'd say more likely than MAD. Most of the world's secret services will be watching him intently. Nuclear weapons take a lot to manoeuvre and launch, he'd been seen doing this before he could launch anything. You don't just hit a big red button and let them fly.

As others have said, there's a chain of command and few of his commanders or oligarchs would support it. People in his own country are beginning to rise up in protest. His political allies will be having serious doubts about him. Someone would put a bullet in him before it got that far.

Russian establishment doesn't change often, but when it does change it happens quickly as the result of back stabbing at the highest levels. My money is on that happening, personally.

The NPR the US equivalent of the BBC quotes a Harvard Professor saying the probability of Putin using a nuke in Ukraine is 10-20%,

www.npr.org/2022/10/04/1126680868/putin-raises-the-specter-of-using-nuclear-weapons-in-his-war-with-ukraine

www.belfercenter.org/person/matthew-bunn

Q. So is Putin just trying to appease some of his critics, or might he actually use a nuclear weapon?
The Russian leader is probably the only person who can answer this question with authority. Most nuclear experts say the likelihood of Russia actually using a nuclear weapon is still relatively low, but given Putin's current predicament, and his public statements, the threat is seen as increasing.
Bunn said his best estimate is that there's a 10 percent to 20 percent likelihood that Russia might use a nuke. While that's a pretty low probability for most things in life, when it comes to nuclear weapons, it is "intolerably high," Bunn said.

Compromise with Putin? Trouble is, what happens next time he fancies a land grab?

Nothing is worth the price of an annihilated world and at some point, some imperfect dirty peace will have to be brokered because that's how the world works and it will probably be the US calling the shots. They abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban with indecent haste and a lot of broken promises.

The world won't be annilated. Ukraine is most at risk and they take the risk everyday of all kinds of weapons anyway. There is no need for a 'dirty peace' negotiation. Putin is on his way out. Let's sit tight.

We just have to wait and see. I doubt strategic weapons would be used but they do have battlefield nukes that could be used.

During the Cuban crisis there was a Russian sub that was going to release a nuclear weapon against the American fleet but the second in command apparently stopped the captain and made hom see sense.

I'm worried about doddering Joe biden, he has a red button too. Hope it's not next to the one he presses to summon his nurse for a nappy change .

What an infantile comment

@colddayinhell - the threat of a nuclear war was far greater in the 1980s than it is now. I remember seeing those "safety adverts" like instructing kids how to cross the road (green cross code) and "kids, say no to strangers". Except these ads were about what to do when a nuclear bomb has gone off near you. Also, there was that documentary-drama in 1984 called "Threads" which was the most terrifying thing I've seen on TV. It gave me a recurring nightmare.

>I'd be very surprised if most Ukrainians wouldn't prefer being part of Russia to seeing themselves and everyone they know die of radiation poisoning.

No.

Also as someone who is in touch with two or three relatives in Ukraine every week, the nuclear scare isn't raised as much as it is around me in western europe.