Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons?

[colddayinhell]

I'm getting very nervous about the ramping up of the war and Putin's calling up of 300,000 reservists. It feels like this is a major escalation. I know that any use of nuclear weapons would mean instant retaliation but it no longer feels like a MAD scenario as it almost feels now like he wants a scorched earth and has nothing to lose and doesn't care that it would destroy everything.

I completely agree, this is not a remotely viable alternative to Putin. As hard as it may seem to imagine, it’s worse.
@PlinkPlonkFizz , with respect, you really need to do some research.

His quickest dirtiest route to infamy is to destroy the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant blame it on Ukrainian missiles and beat a retreat leaving a huge Chornobyl-sized wasteland.

When he gives speeches he sounds 'normal' in the respect he can still function in front of crowds. God only knows what is going on inside his diseased mind ?

I think this might be what happens anyway without any nukes being used.

@Igotjelly his judgement is off. I am not saying he didnt used to start wars for no reason, or that he used to nice. But in the last two years - his judgement is off......and that makes him very unpredictable. Its not sudden, I know Merkel talked about him being somewhat unhinged years ago but it has become substantially worse since Covid. Two years of paranoia, living almost on his own etc etc has impacted on his sense of reality, self belief in the simplicity - fear of the West and historic need to deal with this once and for all. He is a person who has spent too much time by himself, thinks that what he thinks is what actually happens etc etc. And I dont just mean this in terms of the decision to go into Ukraine but how it was done - etc etc etc

It's going to be very difficult for anyone to get near him to end this. Apparently he's gone very reclusive , he's believed to have medical issues , hopefully one of the medical team will take matters into their own hands.

On his 70th birthday #pedoPutin is trending on Twitter. 😂

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-latest-news-direct-threat-of-nuclear-weapons-use-biden-half-of-ukraines-tanks-stolen-from-russian-forces-just-one-world-leader-wishes-putin-happy-birthday-12541713?postid=4608954#liveblog-body

and

edition.cnn.com/2022/10/07/politics/joe-biden-nuclear-weapons-russia-vladimir-putin/index.html

Sounds like Biden might have had an unscripted senior moment and officials are desperately rowing back on it.

He might.
He's dying anyway so he may want to bring everything down with him.

I presumed the 'he's gone off script' rhetoric about Biden is to appeal to voters to make him seem less establishment and more free wheeling. That often makes politicians poll higher, the feeling they've rebelled a bit. There's no way he'd just wander around making Armageddon statements off the hoof without telling anyone.

Partly the reason that Russia have had such a kicking by Ukraine is because so much of their equipment was either obsolete or in very bad repair. Same with the poor troops - many of them don't even have boots that fit!

So it's highly unlikely the somehow, magically, Russia's nuclear arsenal has been carefully maintained in tip top fashion.

They send cosmonauts into space regularly without any issues and run atomic reactors I think we can be sure they have enough nukes in working order to be serviceable should they decide to do so. There is probably not a lot of stuff bar soap and bog paper you can nick from an atomic weapons establishment and it requires a high level of scientific competence which is miles away from dodgy recruits and badly serviced out of date tank kit and the like.

Can I ask how people are dealing with this situation, from a personal point of view? Are you discussing it with your DHs and DCs? Making plans for if the worst happens? By worst I obviously don't mean a direct hit on your city, because if that happens no decisions will need to be made.

Nothing anyone can do. I’m not concerned for myself - I’ve already had a life, I can cope with dying. But my poor babies who have barely even lived yet… 😭 I am terrified for them.

It is highly unlikely that here in the UK we will receive an attack from a nuclear weapon if we did then it really is kiss-the-world goodbye time. The lucky would die first so there's no point in worrying about it.

Talk about it frequently with ds (23). He's worried about it on and off. I tell him to keep off social media /news sites for a bit.

There's nothing anyone can do really so you have to be pragmatic. Although Id personally like it if we could have access to cyanide tablets if in dire straits but obviously there are plenty of very good reasons why that won't happen. Starting mass fear for a start. And the rest.

True but most nuclear warheads are all to a greater or lesser perishable and have to have (very expensive) refurbishment done on them on a regular basis.....

Given what we have seen with other equipment I wonder how much of the money from the refurbishment budget went where it should have done, and how much of it ended up in politicians and senior/very senior officers back pockets?

Hasten to add that you are sadly probably right in that they have "enough" that would work...but maybe not as many are as viable as they think.

Has anybody ever heard of the mass killer finally turning the gun on himself?
Putin the strong leader couldn’t live with failure.

Putin wouldn’t hesitate to press the button.

Im talking about it with my oh, he’s very calm about it all, thinks nuclear war will never happen. I am panicking a lot more but strangely find comfort in threads like this. I find myself going between feeling calm and reassured to seeing the latest news about it and been in a total panic. It’s my little ones I feel so sad for growing up in a world like this.

Just to reiterate....you do not need to discuss this with your children, unless they are in Ukraine. Nobody is going to hit the UK. I am stating this from a professional position. The media love a nuclear story...I get daily calls to comment about it on all major news channels and often do. The UK is not currently at threat from Russian nucs. It simply isn't. Yes, its a 'function story to write about it but that doesn't make it real

But the unlucky have some decisions to make. Difficult decisions when you're cowardly and a parent. I also wish I had access to cyanide pills or similar.
Yes, our generation and the couple before us have totally fucked things up. I doubt that those coming after us would do better though.
I've always thought that there would be nuclear war at some point - it was just a matter of when. If someone produces a weapon then it will be used.

Do you think Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and if so what will the response be from the West?

I think it's more likely he uses say hyperbaric bombs in downtown Kyiv and potentially kill 10s of thousands of folk and destroys the cultural heart of Ukraine before cutting and running than he would use nuclear weapons. But what do I know we are dealing with an increasingly deranged madman with a nuclear arsenal seemingly still in full control of the executive.

It's interesting that the US intelligence let it be known that the daughter of Dugin with a car bomb in Moscow was a Ukrainian hit job.

It shows the world the US has limits on its warfare, in the face of nuclear threats.

It implies the US is keeping Ukraine on a tight leash to threaten Putin with the release of this control if he escalates.

The US ruling class doesn’t want to be poisoned, fall out of a window or blown up, as has been threatened recently by Putin propagandists

@Rachy11as I said in my previous post- this time last year the risk was zero, in March is was 0.01 but now I don't know. It's highly unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility.

The Western response - they already stated they will respond through conventional rather than nuclear means and I believe them. The West is obviously hoping it doesn't go that far. My assumption would be a major aerial bombardment of Russian military installations across Western borders. I do not think they will hit major Russian residential cities i.e. I would assume (if they are 'smart') NATO wouldn't go for Moscow itself, because it's a civilian target etc Geneva conventions etc. The trouble is it will be a major operation to properly target the Russian military - and then you would hope the Russians don't target the Baltics or Scandinavia. I still think they will be reluctant to get boots on the ground but the jwtd might start flying in the skies.. However, geographically Russian troops are focused very much on Ukraine and there isn't much left on their other borders.

I think we’re unlikely to see much in Kyiv, it’s culturally very significant to Russia.