I started being a real energy nerd at the wrong time, so I don’t have accurate figures for a whole year. These are my best guesses. (Apologies for length. I wanted to show my working. TLDR: Even with cutting use to the bone, I need to earn £3000 more this year than last year to pay my fuel bill)
My DD should have been £80 pcm (they insisted on £99, but I clawed £300 back in credit over the year, so I was right!) November 2020-2021
Last winter I implemented EVERY single no or low cost energy saving hack I possibly could. Oven only on twice a week and stuffed to the gills, microwaved or quick hob food the rest of the week. Fridge and freezer turned down (up?), garage freezer defrosted and off, smart plugs to turn things off at night where possible (I only have so many smart plugs). No tumble dryer, DW and washer on eco cycles only, absolute minimum and only when full. Washed bedding once a fortnight, clothes only when really dirty (easily three days for me. Two for the kiddo). Showers twice a week if not seeing anyone, max three times if I needed to be polite. Smart radiator valves where possible, rads totally off in some rooms, heating at 18°C for an hour morning and night, 17°C the rest of the time. Completely off if we are out or at night. Solar nightlights and bedside light for me. I go to bed when the kid does and watch TV on my ipad or read by a kindle or solar light. The camper has a solar panel, so I charge kindle/iPad/solar lights in that. Added chimney blockers, and taped up the cat flap and dryer vent. Added draught excluding tape to external doors and loft hatch. I stopped using convenient appliances like the boiling water tap or food mixer and just did without. I don’t see what more I can do and stay in the 21st century.
I was cold and uncomfortable, even in April and May. I couldn’t afford to go out, and couldn’t afford to keep my home comfortable. It was grim. It did make a difference - about £15 a month. I estimate without the March rise, I’d need to pay £65 a month to be just-about-bearably uncomfortable, but miserable by anyone measure. That was in spring though. Obviously usage is less over the summer anyway, so I’m not totally sure of my figures going into winter.
Now I’m slightly better off. I could just about afford the extra £15 quid a month. Only it isn’t £15. Even with every possible cutback, my energy bill is likely to be about £250 a month (I’ve been offered a fix for £360. It’s including the 20% uplift the energy company insist on, even though they were wrong AND excluding my usage decreases, so I reckon £250 is in the ballpark). And I’ve already cut ALL waste, all nice-to-have’s and some normal usage.
So, I’ve put my metaphorical jumpers on, and I’ve still got to find an additional £170 a month. That’s more than twice my food budget. I can’t just divert it from savings, I’m on the bones of my arse and have no savings.
The point I think OP was making (and I think Mr MSE is also making) is that you can’t thrift your way out of this. Even with borderline-unbearable sacrifices, energy bills are STILL going to increase beyond many people’s capacity to pay them. Even with lowered usage, £170 isn’t a small amount to find for an average earner with average expenses. It’s the equivalent of a basic rate taxpayer’s salary decrease of £3000 a year.
The poverty line has effectively just gone up by £3000 a year. And that’s just energy, not including petrol, travel, food or other necessities which will also rise as a result. Wages have not risen by £3000 a year. Everyone who had £3000 to spare last year will not have anything spare this year. Anyone who had less than that, or has higher energy costs than me or can’t and or isn’t prepared to make the sacrifices I have made (and no one should have to) will have less money coming in than going out.
Who said putting jumpers on is bailing out the boat with a teaspoon? You’re absolutely right. Jumpers, energy saving kettles (FFS Boris! Do you ever learn when to STFU? You have no clue and it’s not your call. Stay out of it) and turning down the thermostat is nibbling at a problem that is going to bite back hard.
(I’ll be ok. I’ve got myself a second winter job. With a bit of luck, I’ll have a bit spare for food increases and Christmas as well. But not everyone is in a position to earn £3000 a year more, are they? And what will they do?)