I've keep my eyes on this over the last few years and looked at what triggers riots. There are certain circumstances in which they almost always occur.
The big drivers of riots are youth unemployment rising above a certain level and food shortages.
Now this country (not including Ireland or Northern Ireland in this) hasn't seen a large scale food riot since 1766.
There was localised unrest in 1816 when there was a failure to have a summer and subsequent food shortages due to a failure of the harvest, all due to a volcanic eruption. Interestingly during this crisis, though there was famine and localised unrest, Britain still faired better than other European nations as they were able to import more grain than other countries thanks to the empire and the abolition of certain laws restricting imports.
Now the situation as we go into winter, does realistically lead to a situation where people have no food. Food banks won't be able to meet demand if the people who have usually donated are also financially struggling which seems likely to be the case. So then what?
If they weren't going to take to the streets over the various outrages of the past few years, why start now ?
There is talk that there will be loads more shop lifting and thefts, which is true, but when you get to the scale of the problem being suggested, even that isn't really viable. And this is where, the idea that even if you are better off you are going to escape this. People still have to go to the supermarket to get their own food. I can see people getting mugged in the car park for trolleys of food, though thats not going to be the approach many will want to take. Its simply a question of the sheer numbers of feeling desparate and being hungry. Once that reaches a certain level, there is an inevitability of unrest.
I simply don't buy into the idea that people will just 'suck it up' because they are British and they've taken previous crisis on the chin. They can't. That means SOMETHING will HAVE to give on a collective scale. And thats liable to be riots or looting incidents. I don't know whether you've seen CCTV footage of it happening in shops in some parts of the US in the last couple of years. Almost like social media led flash mobs. I suspect we will see something similar starting here. Middle classes, wanting to abide by the law are likely to join local protests instead but with tensions running high, I can see these getting out of hand in some towns and cities.
With Covid and Brexit we haven't simply seen a situation arise where there has been desparation to this level. There were concerns, but it never reached a crisis point at that level. There were scraps in some supermarkets over empty shelves but thats it. We've not seen things getting out of control here. People generally speaking saw the benefits to themselves to stay home and follow the rules. Why is anyone going to listen to the government when they can't feed their kids though?
Whether the government want to intervene or not is beside the point. The numbers are so frightening that its inconcievable for them to not do anything. The only question for me is whether they will go far enough. I remain unconvinced. People have to have food in their hands physically. Not promises of help and talk of tax cuts. Unless whatever is done has a real world impact, then it won't be enough. This isn't one where hot air and platitudes are going to be enough to stop unrest.
My worry at this point, is just how out of touch the government are, in terms of understanding the figures involved here and just how many people are going to be unable to pay bills and buy food. In the last 3 years the government has been very reactive rather than proactive in terms of 'reading the room' with the general public. I get the feeling this might be the one that breaks the camels back. The numbers are just that bad.