Slow down of Suburbanization- will more people move to flats and small houses in the cities to reduce petrol costs, gas bills and electricity bills

[onthefencesitter]

My DH is convinced the above would happen. He thinks that the growth of the suburbs (commuter towns and outer london) was accelerated by expensive property prices in central areas but also by relatively low costs of fuel and gas for many years. This would no longer be the case so will people opt for smaller homes in locations where you can cycle and walk everywhere, thereby reducing costs. Did this happen in the 1970s?

I am not so sure...

I don't think so after the pandemic. A lot of people learned very quickly to value outdoor space and a home with plenty of separate rooms. Thanks, lockdowns.

No. He is wide of the mark I think.

There is such great demand for family homes and people will (in theory) always want to find space, greenery, privacy.

so, no.

This time two years ago everyone was saying it was the death of the city and everyone would move to the countryside and work remotely....

I don't think he is right either. On the other hand, I do have a colleague who is paying £700 per month for his 5 bed detached in surrey plus commuter fares so it is not a cheap decision.

I guess its a question of whether people swallow the cost, freeze or perhaps think of more creative ways to pay it like intergenerational living.

£700 in energy bills

www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85058067#/?channel=RES_BUY

This is only 50K more expensive than my current flat (in north london) and about 100k cheaper than the 3 bed room ground floor flat(with garden access) than I am looking at. It is cheaper than a lot of houses in commuter towns esp when you minus the commuter fares and the costs of running two cars. It is EPC B. It has 3 double bedrooms and a garden. 0..5 miles from station. Its not my taste at all but it would tick a lot of boxes for a family with 1 or 2 kids (majority of families). Not much home working space but i guess you can bike to the office?

I don't think that will happen until leasehold is reformed. The recent scandals have shown how vulnerable flat owners are - to unfair terms, short leases, missing freeholders not to mention rip off management companies. Who would choose that if they could afford the stability of a house?

You could buy share of freehold or where freehold is owned by residents. Thats what I did.

On a side note, I do have a colleague who just bought a £600k one bedroom flat in canary wharf! He was actually renting in surrey but bought in canary wharf. Thats a totally different market though!

For me, i bought in zone 3 and a house the same size would be in excess of a million so not really an option for a first time buyer. Definitely not an option when interest rates are rising!

Worth reading. If in a hurry, just read the numbered subheadings in bold print.
If you are hoping for " blame Brexit", don't bother.

ourfiniteworld.com/2022/08/23/why-no-politician-is-willing-to-tell-us-the-real-energy-story/

Also, some news from the European Union:

oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Belgium-PM-Next-5-10-Winters-Will-Be-Difficult-As-Energy-Crisis-Persists.html

Surely the hope is that current energy prices are a blip due to Russia and may revert back to normal levels in a year? Am I being too optimistic?

Oh, just reading the links on the previous post now. That's a bit depressing!

Possibly but too early to tell. Depends how long the expensive petrol, energy bills and slow wage growth lasts.
I live in a flat that's walking distance to everything and no commuting costs. Was meant to move to a Victorian terraced house further out earlier this year. Now I'm glad we didn't. We have a cheap mortgage, well insulated property, fewer travel costs and smaller energy bills. We are waiting it out here for a few more years then will see if it makes sense to move.

If housing operated as a free market then possibly - but because it is highly regulated and slow moving then it’s unlikely to happen on a large scale

I used to be more open to moving further out but not as much now. Esp since DH cycles to work and to get shopping. But I am not sure other people will think the same way esp for people who are used to their big houses and living further out. I think they may just try to cope...

Thanks for sharing that Waterwitch. It's interesting, but concerning at the same time.

I don't know generally but I chose a smaller house and garden within walking distance of station and town centre over bigger house and vastly bigger garden further out/semi rural. That was 5 years ago and I haven't regretted it, mi as I'd prefer more space - the location more than makes up for it. I did this largely because I'm a single parent with 4dc and don't want to become and constant taxi service as they grow up. They can cycle or walk places easily, as can I.

Not really.

on the flip side, your own home rather than flat will be easier to add solar panels and batteries, easier to do own water conservation grey water system all because you don’t have to get get permission from freehold or other owners.

Garden you can grow some own produce if food prices rise. And more likely to have driveway for electric car and bike convenience.

With cost of entry fees, restaurants and cafes increasing, I’m glad we have a large garden and house big enough to host people at ours instead. Far cheaper. My child is entertained most days for free in our garden either alone or with friends visiting, and the local area is open woodlands, for biking and walks.

I think our current housing stock is not fit for the new weather patterns, and long term it needs to be rebuilt with better insulation for winter, passive air con for summer, and also ways to generate electricity and recycle water. Doing this would give us an opportunity to question the way we build homes.
Personally I prefer a small house and a big garden to cook outside and grow some veg. I'm worried these will become luxuries.

I think he’s wrong. Sorry.

People will always want space. It’s at a premium in the country. Give me a garden over a pokey flat any day.

I think it will depend on many factors so will affect different cities differently.

There was a thread few days ago: www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4617716-what-happens-when-people-cant-afford-to-actually-get-to-work?page=6&reply=119479001

So I think it may well be an issue - and as a young couple we liked living near city center.

When we moved here wondered why flat weren't being renovated/built in city center as by trains there several large cities in commutable distance and in last few years that's been happening.

We are out a bit though it's just walkable - that's was school catchments playing a role and have a garden and green walks and spaces round us which we did appreciate very much in lockdowns.

Future of heating may also play a role - not sure our garden is big enough for heat pump not sure what they plan for flats post gas boilers.

Its not always a choice though. There was a lovely mumsnetter perhaps a year ago (pre cost of living crisis) who was downgrading from her big house to a 4 bed flat with 3 kids and pets. So she would have zero mortgage and less financial stress. The flat was an ex housing association flat hence the generous layout!

I predict the energy price cap would hit £8k-9k at some point. its already £6k by January. Some households would be paying £10k. You can switch off the heating but you still need electricity to cook, to charge the phone, for lights. And of course inflation would skyrocket cos there is no protection for businesses, 20%-25% inflation here we come. For basics, it would be much much more...

Are you worried about losing value on your flat? 😉

I actually think there's an issue with affordability in many parts of London & other cities. So much movement as been driven by huge equity gains however it's much harder to do that. So people are naturally getting pushed out.

Obviously the pandemic/wfh has changed things driving more to the countryside but I was driving through Surrey yesterday & did think (in some parts) you get a great house but you have to drive everywhere even to walk your dog which may become prohibitive with fuel prices.

I also considered the outer suburbs eg z4 outwards less desirable as they don't tend to have convenience or countryside however it's these areas I expect to see more growth as I know for myself I just wants more space after the pandemic but I don't want to be in the home counties.

who was downgrading from her big house to a 4 bed flat with 3 kids and pets. So she would have zero mortgage and less financial stress. The flat was an ex housing association flat hence the generous layout!

Was there a garden shared or otherwise with that - because could see that working but big plus for me with house with garden over flat was ability to line dry especially when we started having kids.

People often cite launderettes as an answer but last place we lived didn't have one and here it is a trek across other side of city.

It's not just us a family living in 4 ned flat above shops I know- so no garden sat lack of line drying washing and letting younger kids out unsupervised is a big thing they miss and have to work round.

Did this happen in the 1970s?
No. Because the economy was spread throughout the country, not concentrated in London.
Can we move jobs/employment rather than people please?
Love from,
The Provinces.

I was trying to choose between a flat in z3 london and a 2 bed terraced house in the home counties in 2019. I am glad i picked the flat because my monthly fixed costs are much lower.

with 2 London commuters, it would be £8000 per annum for rail season ticket for both of us and even if you go in 3 times a week, its almost the same price as going in everyday. Today, my DH bikes to work and I take the tube and with hybrid working, its £150 per month for both of our travel costs including travelling to the city on the weekend for leisure.