Slow down of Suburbanization- will more people move to flats and small houses in the cities to reduce petrol costs, gas bills and electricity bills

[onthefencesitter]

My DH is convinced the above would happen. He thinks that the growth of the suburbs (commuter towns and outer london) was accelerated by expensive property prices in central areas but also by relatively low costs of fuel and gas for many years. This would no longer be the case so will people opt for smaller homes in locations where you can cycle and walk everywhere, thereby reducing costs. Did this happen in the 1970s?

I am not so sure...

Flats, no. Not with the way leasehold is in this country, and also the newer flats in particular aren't fit for an increasingly warmer climate. If we had more flats that didn't tick either of those boxes then potentially, particularly as we get further away from the general trauma of lockdown.

Smaller houses in cities, yes they probably look more attractive now relative to a larger property further out but requiring a two car lifestyle than they would've done a couple of years ago. I don't mean people are going to choose to squish into a two up two down with their 2.4 children, but three or four bed semis or terraces with a garden and/or lots of green space nearby plus public transport might seem more desirable than stretching yourself a bit more for the 4 or 5 bed new build for the sake of a bit more space.

I was trying to choose between a flat in z3 london and a 2 bed terraced house in the home counties in 2019

why not a house not so far out?

i think the flat probably did have a communal garden. on another note, I live in a flat and have a washer dryer and it works very well for us now.

the flat I am considering is on the ground floor and has garden access. Would bring my washer dryer with me when I move!

My point was that there are probably lots of reasons that 4 bed flat was not the ideal family home but yet she was very excited to consider it because I think when you have been stressing about finances for a long time, the thought of no mortgage to pay is such a big relief that it makes up for a lot of inadequacies. We haven't experienced a winter yet with such high gas bills so we are in unprecedented territory. I mean its like- would you rather give your children a childhood where they have a garden to play in but mum and dad are always stressed about money and saying no to ice creams and days out; or would you rather have a place with lower running costs so you can breathe a little and switch on the heating once in a while and buy a treat occasionally for the kids?

I didn't really like any of the areas in z5 or z6 and the house wold have been the same size as the flat really or even smaller when you consider the staircases...

I think your DH is correct that many people will think more about living costs into when making property decisions. Plenty won't but I think yes some people will make do with three beds when they might previously have stretched to get four. I hear that solar panels are now adding increased value on sale prices for example.

The UK housing market is a crazy place though and so I am not sure we will see massive price drops in any type of property. The desire for outside space or good schooling is still strong. The crime rise in urban areas is likely to track poverty issues so that will create a different push/pull effect.

We looked many years ago at a larger, cheaper house 20 miles from work vs a smaller, slightly higher cost house 1 mile from work. We chose the smaller house and logically it was a better investment because we needed to spend less money on day-to-day running costs so more of our money was going into the asset. I would be even more likely to think like this in the current climate.

I do think people will become more cautious about overextending themselves - once you have been through a painful period (like the one we are facing ) it takes a while to relax again afterwards.

We are in for a bumpy few years

Well I decided to go for a terrace in z4 instead of a semi detached which was the original plan. The saving has meant I'm getting solar panels fitted & any other energy saving stuff I can. It's ideally not my forever home but I also made sure if I have to stay there there is enough space to grow.

Personally I think when you have dc, teenagers need their own space.

@onthefencesitter - but it’s easier, especially with young children for them not even to notice the lack of expensive days out and ice creams if they have a garden.
A nice garden can have paddling pool, sandpit, picnics, friends over, ice creams from supermarket in freezer.

A flat you have to take out ideally every day to park, buy ice creams there, take bus or drive to those places.

My 2 year old is just as happy with an ice lolly in the garden, playing with friends and toys out, as the days we take him to a zoo or something.

larger house also means space for dh and I both to work from home. No expensive commute costs or childcare

and pre pandemic I wouldn't have considered further than z3 but I'm actually tired of so many people 😆

I also think gardens are a must have with dc, it doesn't have to be big but some outside space.

The more I think of it the more I reckon suburbs or at least areas in the sort of middle rather than outer or inner rings iyswim might become more rather than less desirable. A middle ground.

I think no but for other reasons. Living in leasehold is crap and dealing with management companies or other joint freeholders is too.

the kids in my development just play in the communal garden. there is a paddling pool in summer and they play in a somewhat feral pack lol.

A lot of flats in london do have private gardens though, they are maisonettes. warner flats in walthamstow or purpose built edwardian flats. My Dh hates conversions which is why we opt for 1930s purpose built but I am looking at one with garden access now.

I am not saying there are no downsides; and of course people will buy houses if they can afford the £6k/8k-10k energy bills and the 25% inflation! I am sure many of us would buy houses with gardens in Chelsea if we could comfortably afford it! The question is how many homeowners can afford it going forward given that 66% of households would be in fuel poverty by January...

crime stats will become more relevant I think as it's likely to increase!

and of course people will buy houses if they can afford the £6k/8k-10k energy bills and the 25% inflation!

If energy bills are going to hit 10k a year then I think most people aren't going to be focused on whether they should buy a flat or house!

Those with jobs will get wary of changing.

Costs of moving too, plus I think certain systems will be on a go slow at best.

I can think if a 3rd reason but I am not putting here.

I do think it will happen though. For reference, energy price cap was £1137 in Jan 2019. It is now going to be 3554 in October. £6000 in January according to cornwall insights. £10k at end of 2023/beginning of 2024 is a matter of time.

I am preparing my finances in preparation for that. putting away money so I am living as if I have to pay £10k in energy bills yearly (which I probably wouldn't as i live in a 2 bed flat but its better to be safe). The war in ukraine isn't going to be ending any time soon.

we all have to live somewhere, whether its a flat or a house. Whether we are renting or owning, its all the same housing stock...

With cost of entry fees, restaurants and cafes increasing, I’m glad we have a large garden and house big enough to host people at ours instead. Far cheaper. My child is entertained most days for free in our garden either alone or with friends visiting, and the local area is open woodlands, for biking and walks.

This!

In a post-Covid world my observation is people are moving further out of London (and other large cities), as they no longer need to commute on a daily basis. I’m not sure we’re going to see a reverse to people moving back to city living as your DH predicts.

What do you think such high energy bills are going to do to hospitals or schools?

What will be the impact of spending all your money on bills & nothing left for the wider economy?

What is it going to do to businesses?

I think it's very naive to think it's a case of saving up & "Ill be fine". There will be huge ramifications.

Of course there are going to be huge ramifications. None of us like this and our government should be doing something instead of putting their heads in the sand. I have no idea how businesses, hospitals and schools are going to cope. There may be government intervention to help businesses, hospitals schools and the most vulnerable. But there wouldn't be one for me. or for many of the people on this thread (if they are on average or above average household income). Certainly if you are in the position to buy a house or a flat and are of working age, there definitely wouldn't be much help (if any).

As an individual, I can't control what the government does or what the energy price cap is . All i can do is try to protect myself as best as I can.

I actually think the more likely senario is that people will stay in bigger houses, further out, but house share more.

Either multi generation so grandparents old house, children stay and pay household bills and food as no rent, and grandparents help with childcare more.
Or more people share with other friends and family or take in lodgers, all to help contribute to bills, but giving you the garden and social aspect.

A small flat is fine in community areas, but if you have no space to host and can’t afford to go out, I can see many people getting lonely.
A large flat will cost the same as house of same size to heat so it’s irrelevant really

As I said if the average person is going to be paying 10k a yr bills I don't think whether they buy a flat in z3 or a house further out will be the most pressing worry.

And for the ones that can still afford to buy & pay the high bills there may be some more compromises eg terrace close to a station rather than isolates detached in the home counties however I can't see them swapping the detached for a flat closer in.

can't see them switching who are set on a detached in the home counties

Not sure what happened to my post (was eating) but hopefully you get the gist.

@Caspianberg yes multigenerational living will likely become more common.

isn't it cheaper to heat one floor as opposed to two floors. Also if on upper floors, you can rely on the heat from bottom floor flats?

I find in winter, i often don't need to switch on the heating for that reason...