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Energy bill price cap predicted to go to £3850 - 3 x what it was a year ago

667 replies

cakeorwine · 27/07/2022 20:40

There is an AIBU here - but really it's posting for traffic

Russia is having 'maintainance issues' so has reduced the gas flow to Europe to a low level.

Gas prices have soared again.

Price cap prediction - £3850 - about 3 x what it was a year ago.

This is going to affect all of us

www.theguardian.com/money/2022/jul/27/uk-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-3850-pounds-russia-cuts-gas-supply-further-europe-pipeline

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
AppleBottomRats · 27/07/2022 23:50

LoisLane66 · 27/07/2022 23:30

The media is quoting numbers for an AVERAGE family (whatever that is)
Is it still 2 parents and 2.4 children in a 3 bed house?
IMO there is no average family so the numbers don't necessarily allude to your situation.

I believe it is literally just the average (mean) domestic usage. It’s not based on a specific household size or type.

PickAChew · 27/07/2022 23:56

RB68 · 27/07/2022 21:19

I think we need a fundamental change in how we cook and heat homes. Our housing stock is terrible and houses built as cheaply as possible rather than with the long term cost of ownership taken into account.

How inefficient is oven and hob cooking - all the wasted heat.

We need to radically look at how we keep food (fridges and freezers) how we cook it and how we heat our homes and provide hot water - it is all very inefficient at the moment.

Then you add on how we use electricity in the home - or rather waste it with hairdryers and stylers, phone charging and other electronics, the way TVs and so on use electricity as well.

I am terrified of the bills and we are having a new more efficient boiler fitted (alth still LPG unfortunately) we will have solar and batteries installed and I will be looking seriously at all our electronic equipment and asking what we can do without.

We have actually been spoilt over the last 30 yrs or so regarding the cost of these essentials.

How are you accessing mumsnet?

lastminutedotcom22 · 28/07/2022 00:01

Or gas and electricity bill was £85 now it's £158 and we had a letter saying we owe them £750 and so we now have to pay £229 a month

If it goes up 65% in Oct and again in January that will be crazy. It's a frightening situation. It'll be about £4-500 a month which just isn't sustainable for anyone is it? Unless your loaded and it doesn't matter but for ordinary working people - I know my 2 best friends and I were talking about it and it's a scary prospect.

I agree tho - no COBRA meetings on this is bizarre it's going to affect so many people - I have visions of my daughter sat in her classroom with her coat on!!

LilacPoppy · 28/07/2022 00:01

Can someone explain because I keep getting confused. Just the predicted 65% increase in October mean that the standard variable unit charge and daily charge will both be 65% higher than they are now? So for example if the daily unit charge was 10p a day that will then by 16.5 pence a day and if the unit charge was also currently 10p a day that will then be 16.5 pence a day or does it mean something else?

cakeorwine · 28/07/2022 00:03

LilacPoppy · 28/07/2022 00:01

Can someone explain because I keep getting confused. Just the predicted 65% increase in October mean that the standard variable unit charge and daily charge will both be 65% higher than they are now? So for example if the daily unit charge was 10p a day that will then by 16.5 pence a day and if the unit charge was also currently 10p a day that will then be 16.5 pence a day or does it mean something else?

I think we will see that in October

OP posts:
MidnightMeltdown · 28/07/2022 00:10

I'm with eon and was paying about £65 per month until April this year, when they offered me a 1 year fix at £135 per month until the end of April 2023. I remember people debating on Mumsnet about whether or not to fix, when to me it seemed like a no brainer.

I'm fortunate that my home energy prices won't be affected this winter, but it will still affect everything else. Restaurants, shops, pubs, cinemas, supermarkets etc must use a massive amount of energy and they will have to pass that on.

No idea what to expect next April. Also wondering whether there will be energy rationing the way things are going.

lovescats3 · 28/07/2022 00:23

Martin Lewis said the other day there is momentum gathering on people planning to refuse to pay energy bills and you can't be disconnected.Also EU have been discussing energy rationing in the last couple of days so don't know if they got wind of this

LilacPoppy · 28/07/2022 00:44

@cakeorwine thanks I don't know whether to fix with elf or not . My tariff end this month. Currently paying £106 new tariff £426!

LilacPoppy · 28/07/2022 00:45

*EDF

PeloAddict · 28/07/2022 00:56

I'm definitely worried
Fixed my rate last sept and wish I had gone for 2 years instead of 1
Current spend is
£27 ish electric a month
£10 on gas

PeloAddict · 28/07/2022 00:57

These are my current rates and annual usage

Energy bill price cap predicted to go to £3850 - 3 x what it was a year ago
SandinJuice · 28/07/2022 01:02

GoodnightRain · 27/07/2022 22:50

We didn't know what to do with regards to fixing our rates. We didn't in the end because the price seemed ridiculously high. Nothing compared to recent predictions though. I really wish we did, I feel like we've made a massive mistake, so worried.

Same here. Martin Lewis was saying to not fix earlier in year or late last year. Our fixed rate came to an end and we went onto the standard variable. We're already in a debt repayment plan with Stepchange but when our bills go up we won't be able to afford our monthly payment and will have to default. Our child is off to Uni and we get the minimum maintenance loan that we're having to top up - I honestly don't know what we're going to do. We just can't cut back anymore or conjure up more money. I've heard they can't cut you off if you have anyone under 16 in the house.

Our energy suppliers wanted to take £285 this month for duel fuel

MidnightMeltdown · 28/07/2022 01:04

PeloAddict · 28/07/2022 00:57

These are my current rates and annual usage

That is cheap rate, your bill will double in September when the fix ends. It's about the rate that I was on before my fix ended in April.

SandinJuice · 28/07/2022 01:06

Sorry cut off there - so our DD before was £148 a month. I asked if it was going to be 70% more than £285 in October and they said probably. We just can't afford that.

Friars23 · 28/07/2022 01:17

An article by a Labour member of the House of Lords, Prem Sikka, suggesting ways govt could help address this crisis. I expect the government will not entertain these suggestions as not part of their economic model :(

“The cost-of-living-crisis has become an existential threat to a large part of the UK population. The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Retail Price Index, has risen to 11.8% and is expected to climb and further deplete people’s purchasing power.

People’s capacity to manage the economic crisis is depleted by shrinking incomes. During 1970 to 2007, real wages grew by 33%, but fell to below zero in the 2010s. The government is now offering a pay rise of 4%-5% to public sector workers, which is likely to become a benchmark for many private sector workers. This is effectively another pay cut in real terms. The government plans suggest that real wages in the UK are forecast to shrink by 6.2%, or average of £1,750, over the next two years. Meanwhile, the rich with pay packets above £170,000 secured an 11% pay rise.

Corporate profiteering is responsible for nearly 60% of the current rise in inflation. Oil, gas and energy companies have been declaring record profits and dividends. In winter this year, the average annual domestic energy bill is expected to increase to nearly £3,363, nearly three times the cost of a year ago. The government has given some help to households but none to schools, hospitals or businesses. The majority of households will receive a grant of £550, leaving them to find the rest. In essence, the grant will be handed straight-back to energy companies. This fails to check profiteering and the rate of inflation.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation estimates that low income families will hand over 26% of their income after housing costs in 2023/24 to pay for gas and electricity compared to just 12% two years previously. A single, childless, working-age person on a low income can expect to pay 67% of their income to meet energy costs. Working-age lone-parent low-income families will lose almost a third (35%) of their income to energy bills.

Millions lack saving buffers to manage the crisis. Some 1.3 million families had no savings even before the pandemic. Nearly half of all families had savings worth less than a month’s income. Some 8.2 million UK households, one-in-three, are expected to be in fuel poverty.

Millions of Brits face the choice of living in a cold home, going without food and other essentials, not paying bills, and getting even deeper into debt. There is a strong prospect of riots and social disorder.

The Tory government is not the one for listening but it needs to change its policies to avert a deeper crisis. At the very least, it needs to do the following.

1.Immediately increase the state pension, benefits and wages in line with inflation to give people some breathing space.

  1. Cap energy price rises. Earlier this year, France capped gas and electricity prices at 4%, whilst they increased by 54% in the UK and filled the coffers of energy companies. Capping reduces the rate of inflation and prevents high energy cost from feeding into consumer prices for food, and essentials
  1. Bring energy companies into public ownership. France is fully nationalising EDF to increase the government’s policy options.

Any mention of public ownership sends neoliberals into cold shivers and raises the question about how this will be financed. Governments which have handed £895bn of quantitative easing to speculators can also use the same process to bring the energy sector into public ownership. If that is considered to be inflationary, then the appropriate amount of cash can be removed from circulation via taxes on those with the broadest shoulders.

Those not convinced by this argument need to be reminded that public ownership results in acquisition of assets. These assets can be used to borrow money or sell bonds to finance the acquisition. This is essentially the business model of private equity and can be used for public ownership.

  1. Reduce demand for energy by encouraging people to use public transport at affordable prices. Since 2020, residents of Luxembourg have been able to ride trains and buses throughout the country without buying tickets. In Spain, travel across commuter routes on certain parts of the state-owned rail network will be free from 1 September until the end of the year. In June, Germany launched a €9 unlimited monthly travel pass giving people unlimited travel on public transport throughout the country.

Such policies, funded out of taxation, reduce demand for energy; reduce traffic congestion and pollution, improve social mobility; control inflation and help with the cost of living crisis. They are only possible because the transport system is in public ownership.

The same should be possible in the UK.
In 2020-21, the government handed £16.9bn subsidy to railway operators, but this has not prevented high fares as large parts have vanished into dividends and executive payand duplication of administrative costs across more than 100 companies involved in running the railway system. A publicly owned transport system, gives governments more policy options and people a respite from soaring costs.

  1. Make efficient use of energy. Government needs to give poorer households grants to insulate homes.”

leftfootforward.org/2022/07/prem-sikka-here-are-5-immediate-steps-the-government-could-take-to-tackle-the-cost-of-living-crisis/

Friars23 · 28/07/2022 01:22

Joyjoj · 27/07/2022 23:37

Why is gas supposed to be going up to this extent,to my knowledge we only get 3% of our gas from Russia,or am I just imagining it all?

I think it’s because gas and electricity is sold on the wholesale market and supply and demand is part of it but there is speculation involved. This article explains some of it.
www.thenational.scot/business/19867988.speculators-driving-massive-energy-price-rises/

PuzzledObserver · 28/07/2022 01:26

LilacPoppy · 28/07/2022 00:01

Can someone explain because I keep getting confused. Just the predicted 65% increase in October mean that the standard variable unit charge and daily charge will both be 65% higher than they are now? So for example if the daily unit charge was 10p a day that will then by 16.5 pence a day and if the unit charge was also currently 10p a day that will then be 16.5 pence a day or does it mean something else?

It means that the total bill for the “typical household” will go up by 65%. The “typical household” uses 12,000kWh gas and 2,900 kWh electricity, apparently.

The April increase of 54% broke down something like this:

Electricity: standing charge up 100%, price per kWh up 33%

Gas: standing charge up 10%, price per kWh up 75%

The total increase for October will be announced in late August, but the suppliers have a certain amount of wiggle room about how much they put on each element, so long as the total bill for the mythical typical household doesn’t exceed the cap. Many people think the standing charges may not rise at all, and it seems likely that once again it will be the gas price per kWh which will bear the brunt of it.

PuzzledObserver · 28/07/2022 01:39

we are on moderate household income (£70k)

Is that moderate these days?? Gross or take-home? Median full-time earnings are around £29K, I believe.

20 years ago I worked in IT and earned close to £40K including bonus. Then I moved into a vocational occupation and took an instant pay cut. Over the years, I guess I have lost touch with what professional people typically earn these days. Now I’m retired and can only dream of a household income of £70K.

OTOH - no mortgage, no kids, no commuting….

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 02:46

gryilla · 27/07/2022 21:09

What do you propose the government should do?

Ohhhh tough one. Maybe have focused some of its 12 years in office on energy and food security. Nuclear, renewables. We have one of the windiest countries on Earth and are surrounded by coastline...

Maybe not trash the currency on purpose (Brexit) so that everything essential we import (45% if food and even more of fuel) is 30% more expensive than this time last year just on the weakness of GBP to USD?

Just off the top of my head, as a start.

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 02:47

No we don’t, because we got rid of our gas storage. Who on earth thought that was a good idea?!

It was a very stupid idea obviously. But was only ~10 days of storage anyway so more an emergency backup (which would be great of course!) than a solution to the problem.

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 02:51

But this is not a Brexit thread. This is a thread about massively increased energy costs coming in a few months time - and it's not being talked about much.

In many was inextricable unfortunately as the huge balance of payments deficit - which has quadrupled since Brexit - means GBP has fallen like a stone. And we buy our energy in USD...

Certainly international energy prices have risen. But oil was more in USD per barrel in 2004 than now. Price at UK pumps for petrol then? £1.30 per litre.

The Government trashing our currency on purpose is the elephant in the room here which has made everything MUCH worse than it had to be. Some people at the time said they didn't mind if Brexit made them poorer, it was worth it. I hope they will now step forward to foot the bill not expect everyone else to pick it up.

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 02:53

MasterGland · 27/07/2022 21:19

My concern is the standing charge. If this doubles again, it will be scandalous. It penalises the poorest in society, and limits your ability to reduce your bill by curtailing your usage.

My neighbour was asking me this morning if I knew how to go about being disconnected from the gas network...

The standing charge is tiny compared to the unit costs, unless someone is using barely anything at all. Which I suppose if this continues some people may be.

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 02:55

The worst country economically bar Russia?! What, globally? On what basis?

Not globally. Lowest in the G20 other than Russia - which obviously has massive economic sanctions imposed on it.

Shameful, that UK politicians won't even face up to this and pretend it's the same everywhere. It isn't.

www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/06/uk-economic-growth-slower-every-g20-russia

SheeplessAndCounting · 28/07/2022 03:14

rainingsnoring · 27/07/2022 22:32

Agree @cakeorwine . I don't think a lot of people realise how serious this is and how much impact it will have. It's not just households but businesses who are not protected by the price cap. This is in combination with the cost of everything going up, people wanting higher wages (understandably) and the cost of borrowing rising.
It's not all caused by Putin either. That's obviously what the Tory Party want you to believe but it's not true. The cost of energy was already rising significantly. The sanctions were not going to work in our favour but none of the Western leaders thought about that in their arrogance.
As the OP said, the government need to take this more seriously instead of acting like the muppet show plus hangers on.

Of course they thought about it. Do you think they believed Putin would play nice and take the sanctions on the chin?! Of course not. They knew this would happen. However, the alternative courses of action had even worse outcomes so they had to do this. Or do you have a better idea, mumsnet foreign policy guru?

Booklover3 · 28/07/2022 03:22

The Government doesn’t care… they won’t step in until there is civil unrest. Doesn’t matter which one of them takes over. Neither of them will
be struggling to pay their bills will they?

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