Re overpaying (or not):
I am with Octopus, who allow you to set your own level of DD via the website. I imagine there are limits, like they won’t allow you to pay £2.50 if you are using £300 a month or something, but so far I haven’t found those limits. I have both reduced and increased my DD to suit myself.
I watch my energy use like a hawk. Initially it was just electricity, because I have an EV, solar panels and battery which are still quite new, so I am still very interested in seeing how they perform. Then last winter Octopus ran a campaign to help people reduce gas usage, so I started watching gas as well. I also became very clued up on tariff options and this has worked out well for me (so far).
At the end of January I chose to make a one-off payment and increase my DD, because although my electricity tariff was fixed until November and I knew I would soon start receiving credits for both exporting excess generation and my share in the Ripple wind cooperative, I also knew the rate I paid for gas would soon go up (was on SVR at that time) and predicted to go up again in the Autumn. So I decided I would build up a nice big buffer over the summer. At that time, it was anticipated prices would start coming down in April 2023, though that no longer looks likely. The lowest my account reached was -£66 in mid February and it’s been rising ever since. It’s now £234, of which £175 is the extra I’ve chosen to pay at £25 per month.
If it came to November and I was tons in credit, I could drop my DD and give myself a payment holiday over the Christmas period. If it got to November and I was starting to eat into the credit, well hopefully it would buffer me through the winter and I wouldn’t need to increase my DD much, if at all. Manageable outgoings are important to me - we are one year into our early retirement, and currently living (in a planned way) on regular withdrawals from investments rather than a pension. So while we could withdraw more to give ourselves a ‘pay rise,’ we want to avoid that as long as possible. We moved into a new build a year ago and it took them 8 months to decide on our Council Tax band. So we are now paying 20 months of CT over 12 months, which amounts to £380 per month, but from April that will drop a lot - don’t know what next year’s rates will be, but we will only be paying 12 months, not 20. If I can keep our monthly outgoings within budget until then, we should then have more slack.
So what I’m driving at is that I am closely monitoring energy use, the prices I’m paying and the direction of the market, and I am managing my DD myself to keep things under control. There may be price shocks ahead, but no surprises, e.g. when our current gas tariff ends in April, I may very well need to increase the DD in preparation for the following winter, But by then the CT will have dropped, so should be manageable.
Having been in the house a year, I’ve just calculated our total usage:
gas 9,700 kWh
electricity 3,050kWh
Electricity should be no more than 2,500kWh per year from now on as the solar was installed part way through the year. 80% of my electricity is at 7.5p during the cheap 4 hour window, the rest of the time it’s 40.9p - I’ve just fixed at that for the next year, and swallowed the more than doubling of the standing charge and day rate. I’m anticipating an annual electricity bill of around £550.
My gas is on a Tracker tariff which moves with wholesale prices - but capped at 6p until April. People joining the tariff now have a 16p cap, and a higher standing charge. If I assume that by next April the cap will have gone to 20p, my maximum gas bill for the next year will be £800
Total annual bill £1,350, minus about £300 credits from the wind turbine and £50 for export, leaving £1,000 for me to pay. But the government are going to give me £400 towards it, so I only need to pay £600.
Conclusion: my DD of £75 will be enough. But I will continue watching my usage, and the market, and adjust if I need to.