Climate change: just how f***ed are we?

[obsessedwithsleep]

Obviously it's on my mind at the moment and it seems that nothing of any significance is being done. Like we're just watching those juggernaut come down the road and not even trying to the move the car.

Anyway, as the title says: how awful will the future be? What is the most likely degree rise by 2100? What does this actually mean in reality?

Would love to hear people's thoughts and wisdom.

When really the only real way to ever solve this was always to have less. To tread more lightly.

This is what it comes down with - unfortunately most people in the western world want more, not less, and to hell with the consequences.

This is what it comes down with - unfortunately most people in the western world want more, not less, and to hell with the consequences.

I think that most parents would willingly sacrifice anything to save their children

How many posters on here where they are asking about whether to have a third child actually take climate change into account? If I had kids I would be a lot more careful.

How many families need to have a dog, 4x4, new every thing, foreign holidays? I can’t believe how bad dogs are for climate change yet how many people have them now?

we are screwed, people are too selfish and too lazy to do anything apart from fill up their recycling bin.

No, it’s not. That is a myth. Did you not read the report showing that the UKs total CO2 emissions are at 1945 levels….we have way better lifestyles and more than we did in 1945 post WWII Britain. In addition, on a per capita basis, our CO2 emissions are the same as they were in 1860- are we living like the overworked Victorian poor in the unsanitary slums without even a bed to sleep on? No.

And no, we didn’t reduce CO2 emissions by “outsourcing” most of the gains is due to eliminating coal. In other words greener energy sources has not only massively reduced CO2 emissions but also allowed us to have a hell of a lot more and better lifestyle at the same time.

Going back to medieval lifestyles is not necessary at all. The drastic changes needed are simply shifting off fossil fuels and on to green energy. It’s been happening since the 1960s. We are simply in a transition period where we are feeling the pain of our ancestors emissions.

Yeah because just anyone can be a nurse or doctor. Quite honestly I like living rurally I don’t want to live in a rat race city and so would not like the living in a commune idea

@Dashel

I think having kids is exactly what makes people start to think about climate change. Suddenly you care for something way more than yourself! If I'd been less ignorant of climate change before having mine (2) I'm not sure I would have had any. And I certainly wouldn't have any more. I spend my life now consumed with fear for their future and that's what makes me want to do whatever I can. I can't believe most parents don't wake up once they have children. Ps I don't fall into any of those other over-consuming categories listed, perhaps because I'm aware that's what they are now. I don't know if I was before tbh

It's really not, and that's due to psychology, not resource availability. Because humans are demonstrably easy to manipulate, even more so with social media and booming populations.

The 7 going on 8 billion people in the world are not going to be able to collectively enact the changes needed, because most of us - quite reasonably, given our evolutionary background - not able to comprehend such scales.

And because we're too busy bickering about localised race issues that are fairly small fry compared to "we're making the continents where brown people live uninhabitable".

It's not the children in the UK that will need saving though is it? Not for generations if at all. If my sons flat is too hot I can buy him an air conditioning unit. If he can't afford afford an electric car, I can buy him one. And that's how it works for most people. They will do whatever it takes to save their family and disregard every one else. And because we are a wealthy country with a moderate climate we will be the last to suffer. Populations in almost all other parts of the world will die out before we do. And those reducing numbers will mean quite bluntly that we can get away with doing even less and buys us time to develop technology that might be helpful. And of course if nobody does anything at all -absolutely nothing- the world will be fine and will naturally reduce our population to sustainable numbers.

I’ve thought this for a while

But you have two children, in a country where each generation consumes more than the generation before. If you moved your family to almost any other country you would all consume less.

I take your point, but

@Discovereads There are lots of jobs involved in producing food for a community, you don't need to be a farmer to dig up potatoes or pick cherries. I am sure brain surgeons could do a day a month or whatever to help feed their community. While we can't all do brain surgery, there are many other jobs that need doing in hospitals, someone needs to prepare meals, and it would be great to have someone bringing water and tea around. I know that, because I was left in a room for 12 hours without water after giving birth. I'm flexible on how it would work, but the ethos would be a sharing of skills and resources and building up local communities, rather than transporting things and people all over the place. Basically I agree with others that we don't need so much stuff to be happy. You can't eat money, and we may all be happier living more closely connected to our local community. The facelessness of modern services is alienating for many,

Totally agree, anything which consumes stuff has a carbon footprint. Why do people need 5 dogs? Do they not realise the burden that has on the planet. One medium sized dog is like having building & running a SUV and also note Greta Thunberg has two of them.

Carbon footprint really needs to be understood properly - it is like supply chain, you have to follow the links back to source.

Sorry pressed send to soon. I meant to say: I take your point, but it assumes that the next generation will be just as bad and perpetuate the problem. My experience is that the generation below me etc think very differently and are angry about what they're inheriting

How many earths do we need to sustain our lifestyles?

In the UK about 2.6 apparently. I often wonder about this - obviously there is a lot of variation, with some people vegan, some not, some driving SUVs and others not, some going on foreign holidays, cranking up the central heating, or whatever.

But say my own consumption were 2.6, how on earth could I get it down to 1? There are lots of things I could give up - my horse (though really I'd have to shoot him, as passing him on to someone else doesn't remove the effect of keeping him in hay and vets), my car, foreign holidays, actually maybe any holidays at all, central heating... Which of these things would get me down to 1? Would I need to give up all of them? And if I did, what about the other 67 million people in the UK?

Of course, there is so much whataboutery in climate change discussions. "I'm not giving up flying, because what-about-Chinese-coal." "I'm not giving up meat, because what-about-people-with-three-children." "I'm not ditching my car, because what-about-private-yachts."

Individuals can't fix it, and governments won't.

I think that most parents would willingly sacrifice anything to save their children

I can't say I see much evidence of that. Parents are just as guilty of wanting more as anyone else is.

I haven’t read the whole thread but population is not strictly the cause. It is the over consumption of minority of the world’s population that have causes this.

eventually we have to go to steady state but before that we need to reduce consumption. However this is not possible when our livelihood is taken hostage to growth. We have to move the mindset from quantity to quality.

My Great Grandma (and I had the privilege talking to her) was born in 1800's. She lived to be 105 years old.
In her childhood the seas froze over every winter and it started snowing in early November.
In my Grandma's childhood (still pre all our usual climate-change culprits) the seas froze partially. It started snowing in November.
My mum's childhood in the 50s - the seas froze along the shoreline only, the snow falls would start in November/ December. Mum used to ice-skate down residential streets, so plenty of ice still. Mind you, no plastic bags in sight yet!
My own childhood never saw the sea frozen. It snowed for my Birthday mid-December. I didn't ice-skate down the streets (no such ice) but could do on a frozen lake.

These days the ice is not there for skating anywhere (apart from the arena! ) . It snows sporadically but the cover doesn't stay.

Are the winters changing? Yes. I can trace it back to the eighteenth hundreds. The lone cow my Great grandma kept must have had quite some flatulence. So did the horses.

I understand that it's comforting for some to feel in control of every aspect of our meagre lives. But c'mon now - it's a bit big-headed to think one can control processes that are (factually) as old as this planet itself!?
Amusing really.

So glad that @DuesToTheDirt posted the How many Earths? How many countries? - Earth Overshoot Day link.
As a shorthand I always say only 1 in 5 can live the US lifestyle, and only 1 in 3 can live the European life. I see that China has risen to 2.4 from about 1 and India is almost at 1 now.

So we're not only screwed on climate change but have been, for literally the last forty years or so. There's not point pretending that overpopulation is a myth when the planet just can't support that level of living, and if we can't stop ourselves, then events such as covid and other zoonotic transfers will push us there. Most of us have known that for a very long time, and some made serious efforts to reduce consumption. Yes we have options, we just don't need to indulge that often.

Exactly this!!

I understand that it's comforting for some to feel in control of every aspect of our meagre lives. But c'mon now - it's a bit big-headed to think one can control processes that are (factually) as old as this planet itself!?
Amusing really.

Yeah, it's a big joke.

If we have degrowth in west, poorer countries can enjoy the fruit of their own labour and resources.

we cannot ask other countries to pay for our lifestyle.

As someone who's fairly knowledgable and with a brother who's an expert, we're pretty f*cked.

One climate scientist's prediction. It's extreme but also not unlikely:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/18/britain-hothouse-extreme-weather

@restedbutexhausted Exactly. This stat isn't exact, but something like the richest 20% of the world cause 80% of climate damage.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56723560

Yup. One that no one wants to mention.
We’re like cockroaches. We’re greedy and don’t seem to be evolving. We just consume more and more and more. It never ends.

I think the future is bleak.
There will be war, it’ll be the only way to reduce the population and ensure there are enough resources to go around. Perhaps not in the near future, but in our children's lifetime, it’ll be inevitable.

What do some posters mean by ‘we need to adapt’? How?
The rich won’t. They’ll carry on as they are.