Climate change: just how f***ed are we?

[obsessedwithsleep]

Obviously it's on my mind at the moment and it seems that nothing of any significance is being done. Like we're just watching those juggernaut come down the road and not even trying to the move the car.

Anyway, as the title says: how awful will the future be? What is the most likely degree rise by 2100? What does this actually mean in reality?

Would love to hear people's thoughts and wisdom.

I didn't say anything about horses, you must be replying to someone else.

However, people do criticise the impact of sheep and cattle so I suppose that horses are similar. That said, I'm rather dubious of those claims anyway, going vegan has a fraction of the benefit of ditching the car or stopping flying. It's also less of a benefit than paying off your mortgage.

Now you mention it, I've been meaning to ask my local stables for some manure. I also need to find a local sheep farmer with some dags to get rid of, to keep the weeds down on my veg patch.

Well, net zero plan has to be rewritten now ... goodlawproject.org/news/we-won-net-zero/

Maybe that was for me, I mentioned my horse. Like all pets, he uses up resources. I have to drive to go and see him, most days in the week. He eats grass and hay, land that could be used for food for people. He (and I) have equipment (saddles, rugs etc.) that requires manufacture and end-of-life disposal. Sometimes he needs the vet or the dentist, who also drive to the yard, and have their own equipment and facilities that also use up resources.

Everything, absolutely everything that we do has an impact of some kind.

@DdraigGoch Sorry, I must be too hot! @DuesToTheDirt I see what you mean. My friends keep horses on their farm, and I've only ever thought of them as very handy for free manure.

According to the science the point of no return may have been about 20 years ago. As usual politicians have acted too little too late. We just need to deal with it now.
I'm a lifelong environmentalist, now a public health professional and green party member. Cop26 last year was the end of me caring about it. Life is literally too short to get angry at our useless political leaders. I'm just glad we decided not to have kids.

Yep, this ^. Absolutely terrifying.

many changes are already baked in but it can become worse. We can still have a liveable planet as opposed an unliveable one.

Very much depends on if we start to reverse the emissions this year. I don’t see it happening tbh. The temperature has already exceeded predictions, emissions have never been higher. So then depends on the overall temperature rise if we taken action, when or not. From what I can gather - 2% which I personally think is very likely - means huge sea level rise in UK, which will affect industry and property.

i think we’re also looking at mass migration, resource conflict, food insecurity and rising prices, beyond what we’re seeing now and depending on the political scenarios, civil society collapse - all feasibly by 2050. I’m not at all optimistic.

Our short termist outlook and political infrastructure has essentially pushed addressing this into the long grass for 40 years and we’re now past the point of reversal. They and their industrialist friends were merrily making hay. The mega rich have only become richer and so they’ll protect themselves from the worst effects.

www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Europe.pdf

www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-what-will-2c-and-4c-of-warming-mean-for-global-sea-level-rise/

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/10/net-zero-2050-deadly-procrastination-fossil-fuels

We are victims of our own success....there are simply too many of us. I suppose ecologically when the population gets too big of any species the ecosystem cannot cope and many have to die...if not all. Sorry to sound depressing.

Plus we we are greedy polluters and always want more which is our downfall. I used to care too much but gave up.

I didn't learn to drive till i was 30 because of emissions...most people thought i was mad. What hope is there with that mentality?

Global news podcast: "UN climate chief warns humans are poisoning the planet"

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?i=1000570525760

Bunker podcast: "Will we be ok? Facing the climate emergency"

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000570802939

Considering the speed at which the rainforests have been decimated and at current rates will all be gone in 100 years. These have been around for millions of years and gone in a relative nano-second. We’re absolutely fucked.

Perhaps that’s the solution. If there were elephants in more rooms there’d be less room for people. So the world population would decrease.

I suppose it depends what you mean by fucked. Will the human race be wiped out ? I doubt it.

Will there end up being a lot less of us ? Probably.

I'm pretty sure the UK is well placed to handle climate change. We are overpopulated, so scrub off half the population, but I doubt whether in climate terms it will get too bad. it might even be quite good to have a warmer climate here. We can grow wine and other crops. The sea level will rise but we can either accept the decrease in land available or build flood defences to claim it back.

Unfortunately we don't live in isolation, so unless we make ourselves pretty much self sufficient, we'll be affected by the wars and chaos that happen everywhere else in the world as a result of it.

The modern world is supported by massively complex supply chains, so what will happen in climate change is that countries will turn increasingly inwards to focus on their own problems if the situation there is not too bad, or invade others if it is.

Since a lot of the products we rely on these days are made of hundreds of thousands of components from hundreds of different countries its highly likely the future won't be about gadgets or anything complex, but back to the simple things, that is if the nuclear war doesn't wipe us out as people get increasingly desperate.

Human beings are just too short term in their outlook to deal with these sorts of issues. Ditto many of the issues associated with nuclear power. So the issue will deal with us. The earth has been through all sorts of nasty stuff in the past. Massive periods of volcanism, snowball earth. Multiple mass extinctions. Asteroid impacts. Each time life bounces back in a few hundred million years.

No one is going to stop saying they have a right to have as many kids as they want. No one is going to stop going on nice foreign holidays. No one is going to stop eating meat. No one is going to turn the heating down. You only have to look at the threads on here to understand that. People think they are entitled to these things, and that putting a yogurt pot in the recycling somehow cancels out all of the environmental impact of their lives.

We're rapidly using up all the agar gel in the petri dish and we're going to hell in a handcart, so best to enjoy life while you can. It's not something I can stop. So I don't worry about it. I'll be dead by the time it all kicks off.

So I don't worry about it. I'll be dead by the time it all kicks off

That, unfortunately is why we are in the mess we are in, no one really cares.

Might be better to prevent the worst effects but we'd rather wreck the planet and us instead.

Where’s Thanos when we need him.

D'you mean Thanatos?

Thanos definitely had the right idea at the end of that film. Thinning out the human race by half is pretty sensible.

I don't think people would rather wreck the planet.

Most people care and would like not to.

It's just that they don't care enough to curtail their own lifestyles in the process.

It's far easier to blame China/rich Tories/Americans than it actually is to stop going on polluting jet flights and buying tat.

The world has managed to co-operate in the past for the benefit of the environment, see CFCs for example. The problem is though this had relatively little consequence on the life of the individual.

Now we are asked to make a lifestyle change that actually hurts. And very few people are willing to do it.

What was really sad about the half human race gone. Was more than enough food, more wild spaces etc and immigration freedom. So better all around.

Well you did say you'll be dead by the time effects are really bad...? i think thats a lot of peoples attitudes too, hear it all the time, even with people with grandchildren.

fwiw unless Govts start legislating and fast, what the individual does is meaningless.

So one example would be to limit engine size to say 1200cc, having driven a Seat Arona with a 1000cc engine, its hard to believe anyone really needs bigger, exceptions for farmers etc & no we don't need caravans! Black boxes in all cars, monitoring speeds... there is plenty we can do without drastically limiting our lifestyles.
EU puts in these limits and manufacturers would have to comply, as its such a large market.

EV's are unaffordable and are very environmentally damaging....how is a carer going to be able to buy a EV? but business and money make more sense!! so it wont happen.

You go first, i'll let you and your family starve to death or blown to bits in a war over land/water/resources.

How does having a mortgage contribute to climate change?

If person made climate change is causing all the problems, what happens as the developing world ... Develops? As an emergent middle class in China and India and African countries want TVs, cars, consumer goods, cheap tat, holidays etc?