To think wealthy people will leave Scotland?

[Juniperberries25]

..if the YES side win a referendum? Surely a lot of successful businesses and people who are wealthy/ comfortable/ have paid into a pension will not want to risk all their assets becoming worthless? Or am I missing something? Higher taxes, unknown currency, economic uncertainty, hard border, national security concerns etc

It would cost BILLIONS to set up new Government bodies (eg DVLA, Passport office, MI5, MI6, Amy Navy, RAF to name a few) so surely taxes will be much, much higher than rest of the UK?

Just to clarify I am NOT a fan of Boris but surely he will be long gone by the time Scotland actually became independent after YES vote (probably at least 10 years, just look at the BREXIT timeline).

Please don't flame me, I am just wondering what people think as I genuinely don't get how the benefits outweigh the risks.

I don't think anyone is thinking yes voters would leave! It's the no voters leaving that is a worry. No voters and big employers. Scotland already has a higher proportion of employees in the public sector than the rest of the UK. Who will pay for them? Higher tax levels?
However, people often say they'll leave when facing difficult situations but they don't. Except in Brexit when initially it looked like businesses wouldn't leave after all. Then suddenly they started to move employees and HQs abroad.
Ultimately, though, Scots will probably vote with their hearts and not their heads.

We'd need a Scottish passport printer...

Yes, that's all independence requires. A bit more office equipment. 🙄 😄

I don’t see us staying here if it was a yes vote. Already pay higher taxes and that’s before they need more money to fund all the set up costs.

Bank of Scotland is separate from Royal Bank, which is owned by NatWest. Lots of ‘facts’ being sprouted off here with no substance.

I believe that many Scots consider themselves first Scottish and second European. Brexit has most definitely strengthened the SNP's hand

This. I'm not in Scotland, but my Scottish family will possibly vote differently this time because of fucking Brexit. Many of their friends feel the same way - vehemently anti-Brexit, now pro-independence. These are left-leaning, politically-astute, thoughtful people. The effect of Brexit was damaging beyond belief. They want to get away from Brexit-fucked England and hope to feel closer to Europe as a result.

It’s likely to be the same promise of sunny uplands and it’ll cost them again as it turns out to be misguided

Plenty of English people will want to move TO Scotland if it becomes independent.

In practical terms the negatives for Scotland leaving the UK massively outweigh the advantages, that's beyond doubt - people will suffer and be worse off financially than they are now. All independence has going for it is the Braveheart-style nationalism, but many are willing to vote themselves poorer in return for independence (as was the case with the EU referendum before).

As the UK has found after Brexit, leaving a union has consequences. There are so many UK assets in Scotland that will remain UK assets after Scotland leaves. Businesses, skills, resources that belong to the UK now will still belong to the UK afterwards - Scotland will either have to purchase them or see them head south.

I must say I don't fear Scotland leaving the UK now as much as I did at the last referendum. Back then I worried it would be damaging for the rest of the UK if an integral part of it voted to leave. Now, I'm not particularly bothered. It will be good to be on the side with all the aces during negotiations. What exactly will Scotland be offering during negotiations if they vote for independence? Oil maybe, but much of that is UK oil, and anyway we're reducing our reliance on fossil fuels over the next few years. Scotland might walk away from their share of the national debt, but that will reflect very badly on them given that they will need to borrow money in future.

The main reason for me to no longer be that bothered about Scotland leaving though is that it's now very clear that they will keep pushing for referendum after referendum until independence happens. There's no point clogging up parliamentary time with it. Get it over and done with, and let the Scots deal with the fallout for the next century or so until they come crawling back, cap in hand.

Wales wasn't and research has shown that the English resident in Wales disproportionately altered the voting statistics

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wealthy-english-blow-ins-swung-welsh-brexit-vote-r3qkpmnn3

But if we join EFTA we need a hard border with England. Which makes no sense.

i was a staunch remainer, but it’s not a simple “well just join the EU/EFTA and all will be fine”

I am Scottish, a higher rate tax payer, not an 'uneducated bigot' as @CombatBarbie would have it (this kind of vitriolic mud-slinging is absolutely appalling and completely unnecessary), and I would dearly like to live in an independent Scotland. I love this country, where young people have free access to higher education and I can see my GP the same day as I phone for an appointment and I have glorious scenery all around me. Many of my friends are also higher rate tax payers and none are talking about leaving if there is a yes vote. But if a large number of people do sell up and leave, then that will mean that property prices drop and make the country more attractive to incomers. As a Scot I don't know what it's like to be English in Scotland, but I do know that about 80 per cent of the people who live near me are English, so as the majority of the population in this part of Scotland I guess they can't feel that they suffer much prejudice. At any rate, they are very welcome here!

Please, god, don’t tell me someone said we have the Bank of Scotland so that’s ok?

🙋‍♀️ Very high earners with kids, recently had an offer accepted on a house in Scotland (we're in England). Delighted with the prospect of another referendum! Will both be voting yes if it goes ahead (and if we're eligible at the time).
It's not like England is doing so well, or has been for quite some time.

Get it over and done with, and let the Scots deal with the fallout for the next century or so until they come crawling back, cap in hand

I hope we go crawling, cap in hand, to the EU first.

I've run out of words for how angry Brexit makes me.

So much scaremongering here.
There is a theory that countries need all their high-earning citizens to function economically. England has taken this approach and yet businesses are really struggling as they can't attract enough of the lowest-paid workers to fill the jobs available. So businesses are closing in England as a result.
You need a balance of workers.
Personally I think there are far too many higher-earning people in Scotland who are buying up holiday homes and causing disruption to the local economy, rather than enhancing it. It needs a reset.

And I know plenty of ex-pat Scots who will return if Scotland becomes independent. Scotland needs more families and younger workers, it does not need wealthy retirees and second home owners.

It would cost BILLIONS to set up new Government bodies (eg DVLA, Passport office, MI5, MI6, Amy Navy, RAF to name a few) so surely taxes will be much, much higher than rest of the UK?

Most of that doesn't need to be set-up again, or could be done far more efficiently.

A smaller country wouldn't need the same alphabet soup of defence and intelligence organisations. The entire UK armed forces (army, navy, RAF) combined is about the same size as the US Marine Corp, and other than the nuclear deterrent (which the SNP doesn't want) operates a comparable range of integrated forces. It's arguable now that having the UK forces divided into the different services is inefficient.

Denmark, which is a useful comparison in terms of size and economy for an independent Scotland, operates a unified force about 1/4 the size of the UK military. I'm not sure on the position of the SNP vs. NATO commitments other than their non-nuclear stance.

Westminster is likely to see a military force capable of global projection as more important than an Independent Scotland. Forces and infrastructure will be withdrawn south in the medium term, but initially Scotland can rent the bases to Westminster in exchange for maritime defence. Would an Independent Scotland need a large standing land army for its own purposes? It will need maritime air and sea patrols that can be combined with fisheries protection. It will arguably need a small multirole air/sea air force. Beyond that, it's politics rather than defence needs.

Most of the practical infrastructure to fulfil the roles of HMRC, DVLA, HMPO, etc. already exists north of the border.

I am a Scot. I don't like the SNP (they have a few good policies, but not enough to make up for their attitude), I'm not in favour of independence. But the antidemocratic set-up that comes with a Westminster government is making the status quo less attractive and the risks of attempting independence look much less. The willful self-harm of the Hard Brexit line the current Government are taking and the Opposition are not objecting to leaves the future prospects of a United Kingdom looking no better than those of an Independent Scotland.

The major risk is that it will drive home the wedge in the Union that Brexit started. There'll be renewed calls for a referendum on a United Ireland before long. English Conservative Hardliners will drive the break-up of the Union if unchecked.

I imagine that they will. If there's one thing that the wealthy don't like, it's parting with their money and they seem more than happy to put themselves to quite some inconvenience to preserve it. I don't think the prospect of them leaving will be much of a factor in which way people would vote though.

With remote working , I guess you can have a Scottish based job and live in England so pay English income tax?

To qualify for EU membership, Scotland needs to have
a) a deficit below 3% (currently 24%)
b) five years fiscal stability using its own currency. So not using the pound sterling.
c) Would then have to accept the Euro as a condition of membership.
d) not be vetoed by a single current member state.
e) accept a hard trade border with England.

This means
a)savage austerity to reduce the deficit - massive tax rises and benefit cuts, cuts in public services, redundancies in the public sector.
b) spending millions to launch a new currency, set up a central bank/lender of last resort/alter every vending machine in the country
c) spend more millions to then change the currency to the Euro.
d) being in limbo, outside both the EU and UK for at least five years.

Slightly tangential but I am Welsh, living in Wales, and continued to be appalled that Wales as a whole voted to leave the EU. So much EU funding now gone. Talk about biting the hand that feeds. That there is any talk at all of Welsh independence baffles me as I'm sure Wales must receive far more from the UK economy than it contributes.

I assume the same about Scotland and my gut feeling is that independence would be a net loss, but don't know enough to comment more strongly.

Wonder why people are so opposed to a hard border in Scotland when Boris is currently reneging on a legal agreement to prevent a hard border in NI and there is no outrage? Why are English people so triggered by people wanting their nations back as they were? Leave us deal with the 'dire' consequences people foresee

Oh that’s why I’m getting letters from virgin money. Dormant Clydesdale savings account! Suddenly makes sense ta.