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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think wealthy people will leave Scotland?

1000 replies

Juniperberries25 · 16/06/2022 08:09

..if the YES side win a referendum? Surely a lot of successful businesses and people who are wealthy/ comfortable/ have paid into a pension will not want to risk all their assets becoming worthless? Or am I missing something? Higher taxes, unknown currency, economic uncertainty, hard border, national security concerns etc

It would cost BILLIONS to set up new Government bodies (eg DVLA, Passport office, MI5, MI6, Amy Navy, RAF to name a few) so surely taxes will be much, much higher than rest of the UK?

Just to clarify I am NOT a fan of Boris but surely he will be long gone by the time Scotland actually became independent after YES vote (probably at least 10 years, just look at the BREXIT timeline).

Please don't flame me, I am just wondering what people think as I genuinely don't get how the benefits outweigh the risks.

OP posts:
LetitiaLeghorn · 16/06/2022 09:27

Having seen the shit show which is Brexit, breaking up the UK would be 10 times worse.

These massive permanent changes to the basic governance and structure of countries shouldn't be a simple 50% vote. They should require something like 75% of voters to vote for it. Brexit is done now but we should at least try to learn from it so we don't keep making the same mistakes.

queenatom · 16/06/2022 09:29

I've said before that the only way I can see my parents leaving Scotland and moving down to where we live is if there's a Yes referendum decision.

Podgedodge · 16/06/2022 09:30

The SNP is the Scottish National Party, not Nationalist.

prettybird · 16/06/2022 09:37

It's not called the Scottish Nationalist Party Confused

Lindsay Hoyle regularly pulls up BJ on that in the HoC Hmm

It's called the Scottish National Party because it believes that Scotland is a nation. What's wrong with that?

MadameDragon · 16/06/2022 09:38

Scotland is already officially a nation. The term isn’t synonymous with country or state.

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:40

YANBU

Even the unpleasantness of any second referendum will make people want to leave.

Anyone nearing pension age or with a mortgage will need to consider it too, because of these then being in a foreign currency and subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

No plan is ever set out for the practicalities of a new state. I think this is because the SNP simply doesn’t have the intellectual capacity or business experience to comprehend these things.

Brexit has demonstrated the stupidity of voting to “take back control ” without any idea of what that means.

The SNP promise milk and honey to poor people, as the Brexiteers did. In reality, the rich will leave Scotland, the economy will crash, and what we think is austerity now will pale into insignificance.

I am very sad about what this horrible nationalism has done to my country. From a forward looking, inclusive nation we are now parochial and shambolic.

SirChenjins · 16/06/2022 09:40

On the business side of things if Scotland wanted to it could establish itself with a favourable set up to encourage businesses to stay/move here if it really wanted to and most businesses operating in Scotland already wouldn't close shop and leave, they'd just pay tax to a different organisation (hell one of the huge bonuses of independence would be having the opportunity to leave behind the horrific UK tax code)

Can you link to the evidence which shows that's what would happen?

sst1234 · 16/06/2022 09:40

Surprised that people are not already leaving Scotland. Higher taxes, the health service is a bigger mess under SNP, educational outcomes are poorer, problems with drug deaths are drug misuse are well documented. What exactly the is draw or staying there, if you remove the family ties?

On a separate note, the Scottish population is in serious decline as the replacement rate is so low. Anyone you and fit would naturally move elsewhere unless you work in the North oil sector, which itself is struggling due to the restrictions new oil exploration.

Not looking like a good case for independence.

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:41

@LetitiaLeghorn i agree there should be a much higher bar for any vote like this.

Beenaboutabit · 16/06/2022 09:41

Wealthy peole tend to have the privilige of living in a place they enjoy living. It's a lot to give up to save a bit of money.

It's possible that wealthy people will move but the evidence does not support this ideas. Most wealthy people stay put when taxes are raised in one part of the country rather than fleeing with their money:
www.sup.org/books/extra/?id=27987&i=Chapter%201.html

Private & defined contribution (and some DB) pensions are mostly made up of shares, bonds and cash. Those pensions pots will remain in the currency of those shares, bonds and cash even if they pay out in Scottinh pounds, so it's unlikely to make a big difference to those with such pensions. In public sector (unfunded) pensions, there may be some uncertainty.

An independent Scotland in the EU would attract people and businesses, too. Being in the EU or not will probabaly be the deal maker/breaker for Scottish independence. It played a part in the previous vote when an equivalence was drawn between leaving the UK and the EU. We know what happened next.

JudgeRindersMinder · 16/06/2022 09:41

@shrodingersvaccine And Scotland has a lot of its own infrastructure already - passport offices etc.

Thats not infrastructure for gods sake, it”s a branch office of the UK passport office

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:41

They are a nationalist party though, name not with

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:42

Withstanding

aquamarine1 · 16/06/2022 09:43

Agree with @darlingdodo. I am bored to tears of the polarisation these campaigns create, and I include Brexit. How anyone can think Scexit (?!) won't be as bad is beyond me. Based in Scotland, work in England for full disclosure.

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:44

And getting into Europe would take years, if we were successful. And would lead to a hard border with England. Why would anyone want that?

JudgeRindersMinder · 16/06/2022 09:45

Viviennemary · 16/06/2022 09:08

It won't happen. IMHO. When push comes to shove it will be a different story.

@Viviennemary I really hope you’re right. There’s a part of me believes that the SNP as it stands doesn’t actually WANT independence just now, but they need to keep shouting about it to stay in power. I honestly think they’d shit their breeks if there was a yes vote

WouldBeGood · 16/06/2022 09:49

And by wealthy, I don’t mean the super rich, just ordinary people who need to safeguard their future and that of their children

Formerpupil · 16/06/2022 09:51

sst1234 · 16/06/2022 09:40

Surprised that people are not already leaving Scotland. Higher taxes, the health service is a bigger mess under SNP, educational outcomes are poorer, problems with drug deaths are drug misuse are well documented. What exactly the is draw or staying there, if you remove the family ties?

On a separate note, the Scottish population is in serious decline as the replacement rate is so low. Anyone you and fit would naturally move elsewhere unless you work in the North oil sector, which itself is struggling due to the restrictions new oil exploration.

Not looking like a good case for independence.

Because that’s all statistical data and not everyone’s lived experience?

My educational outcome wasn’t poor (and I was state educated), I can see my GP in a reasonable timeframe and I’m not at risk of dying due to drug misuse because I don’t take any!

I have a career that I enjoy and offers progression (thanks to my “poor” education), am fortunate enough to own my own home, my friends and social life are here (as are my family) - why would I not stay?

GeneralPip · 16/06/2022 09:54

Isn't Sturgeon's answer to the infrastructure question that Scotland is currently a part-owner of the UK's infrastructure, resources, trident etc and independence wouldn't mean simply walking away and abandoning their 'share?' That the technology to run government departments etc also belongs partly to them and it's a case of transferring it to Scottish control rather than establishing it from scratch?

Howappropriate · 16/06/2022 09:56

Why do we stay in Scotland? I stay in an absolutely gorgeous town, safe, good schools, decent paid job and my mortgage is £350 per month! I was a yes voter and will vote yes again.
😀

JustRestingMyEyesForAMinute · 16/06/2022 09:57

There’s a part of me believes that the SNP as it stands doesn’t actually WANT independence just now, but they need to keep shouting about it to stay in power. I honestly think they’d shit their breeks if there was a yes vote

This is also my secret hope.

We have family ties and roots keeping us in Scotland but I can't say for sure what we'd do following independence. We are wealthy and could afford to move (or could be forced to) but we'd be leaving behind 2 sets of elderly parents.

I am agog at people who are very anti-Brexit and very pro-independence. It is an identical rhetoric about 'taking back control' and fuck the immediate negative impact, financial detriment, and long term social and economic implications.

There is absolutely no guarantee (quite the opposite in fact) that Scotland would get into the EU, so anyone voting for it on that basis is taking a massive gamble to say the least.

To me, there is absolutely ZERO upside to being independent. Nothing. Actually, if the SNP stopped existing that would be an upside, although it would still be the same shower in charge of destroying the NHS and education, and pushing through crazy policies, so it wouldn't really make a difference.

Podgedodge · 16/06/2022 10:03

@prettybird xpost.
@WouldBeGood , whether you believe they are Nationalistic or not, that is not their name, so this was in response to the all too common mistake people make of thinking and being outraged that this is their name.
BJ obviously knows better and is just being Goady.

Kris02 · 16/06/2022 10:04

I know two wealthy people (one of them a family member) who plan to leave Scotland if there is a yes vote. The whole thing seems like madness. The dust hasn't even settled from Brexit and Sturgeon wants to create yet more chaos.

riesenrad · 16/06/2022 10:05

many of them hate the English and think Braveheart was a documentary

Yes I think Braveheart was very damaging. Ridiculous for something that was meant to be lighthearted entertainment.

It is crazy to hate someone on the grounds of their accent (which is the only way you know if someone is English or Scottish - although, even then, I have a friend who was born in Scotland but grew up in the south of England so she has an English, not Scottish, accent).

All that said, most voters in Scotland didn't want Brexit and have been treated with contempt by the government (along with other remain voters across the UK) so I can't really blame people for wanting to dissolve the UK. It would be Brexit on steroids though - be careful what you wish for.

Thebestwaytoscareatory · 16/06/2022 10:05

We left several months ago (not that we're high earners Grin ). The last referendum was awful. The SNP have had years to make a real difference and show voters what an independent Scotland would look like, but they've tinkered round the edges, been too feart to use their tax raising powers properly, are all mouth but provide no real, honest version of how independence would work.

It's difficult to do anything but tinker round the edges when you don't have full fiscal autonomy and all the economics levers usually available to governments at your disposal.

It would be like me asking you to run a house for a family of four but telling you your only getting a budget of £1500 a month and you can't spend more than that, ever, regardless of whether your boiler breaksdown or bills go up.

Given that a 3rd of Scotland’s revenue comes from Westminster I’m curious as to where all the money to bring in these services is going to come from and what price the public will have to pay for it.

Are you referring to the block grant? That isn't revenue from Westminster. That's an allocation of money from things like
National Insurance, Capital Gains tax, income/business tax, and VAT that go into the UK pot and would just remain in Scotland if we were independent.

Since 2001 Scotland have contributed around £900 billion to the UK treasury and received somewhere between £643-786 billion back (depending on what you include), so less than if we could keep all revenue raised in Scotland in Scotland).

As an aside to this point, this system is very beneficial to England but not Scotland (or N.I. or Wales for that matter). For example, health is devolved in Scotland, meaning we have to administer it from the block grant (and under the Scotland Act we can't increase this or run a deficit) so if Scotland wants to increase health spending it needs to take money from elsewhere in its budget, which has no impact on anywhere else but Scotland.

Health for England however remains under the UK government's remit, meaning if the UK government want to increase spending on health for England they can do so at will. Either by borrowing, raising taxes, or printing cash, which is then paid for by the whole of UK. Some equal union that eh?

The SNP still haven't answered fundamental questions such as currency etc. They want independence but have no solid plan for the aftermath. We've seen that happen before with another referendum....

Compete red herring that one. The currency could be anything we want it to be. Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Ghana, Chile, etc, etc, etc all manage to exist and do quite well with their own national currency. Yes, it would probably be a weaker currency than the £ buy again that doesn't seem to affect the above countries too much, many of which have a much higher quality of life than the UK (please note I said many there not all, don't want wide arse coming back saying "Ghana isn't better than UK!"

Surprised that people are not already leaving Scotland. Higher taxes, the health service is a bigger mess under SNP, educational outcomes are poorer, problems with drug deaths are drug misuse are well documented. What exactly the is draw or staying there, if you remove the family ties?

Yes, 1% extra on earnings over 40%/46% is such a huge price to pay and definitely worth moving for. Just remember that when your child is left with a £27k bill for uni, you're paying for your prescriptions, or you're paying for your care when your old.

Also see above for why health/education etc is hindered in the current system. It's also much much easier to work on societal issues when you have full control and working to cater for a smaller number of people. That's why LED is so popular these days and would be a hell of a lot easier to admitted for Scotland from Scotland

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