To think wealthy people will leave Scotland?

[Juniperberries25]

..if the YES side win a referendum? Surely a lot of successful businesses and people who are wealthy/ comfortable/ have paid into a pension will not want to risk all their assets becoming worthless? Or am I missing something? Higher taxes, unknown currency, economic uncertainty, hard border, national security concerns etc

It would cost BILLIONS to set up new Government bodies (eg DVLA, Passport office, MI5, MI6, Amy Navy, RAF to name a few) so surely taxes will be much, much higher than rest of the UK?

Just to clarify I am NOT a fan of Boris but surely he will be long gone by the time Scotland actually became independent after YES vote (probably at least 10 years, just look at the BREXIT timeline).

Please don't flame me, I am just wondering what people think as I genuinely don't get how the benefits outweigh the risks.

Hmm, I’m not too sure actually, they talk a big game on how Scotland’s a drain and it’s England doing Scotland the favour by letting them stay etc etc, but when I’ve pressed them on it, they also say “well I’d want them to stay for their own good, I’d be worried what would happen to their economy” 😆 so benevolent. I say this with a lot of affection for English people, they are all over the map with how they feel about the UK (in my experience anyway)

@shrodingersvaccine I share your frustration. Saying you would vote yes seems to be a signal for some to think we are thick.

Probably not. Labour aren't currently offering much of an alternative, they're too striven by their own post-JC in-fighting and too focused on saying they'll "respect Brexit" to avoid upsetting the Red Wall. Although I still can't figure out why Starmer's personal popularity is worse than that of the party as a whole.

If an election was called in the Autumn, and the Conservatives lost to a Progressive Alliance of Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, PC and others then there's a chance that a promise of Westminster reform might dilute support for independence enough for Holyrood to lose confidence in winning. The SNP won't want to call a referendum if they believe they'll lose. And they know they really need a super-majority to be convincing. 52:48 might have been enough for the Conservatives to call a Hard Brexit - but I'm fairly confident they won't be convinced by it in an independence referendum. The SNP need >60% to settle it and prove there's clear water between the results of this independence referendum and the last.

But here's a question... what if the result is somewhere in the region of 52-55% in favour of independence. What does Westminster counter with to try and reinforce the Union?

No one is ‘letting them stay’ it’s the status quo

But yes there seems to be a lot of anti-English feeling mixed in with desire to leave, whether it’ll be good long term maybe someone could use some figures to show one way or the other

Income from across the whole of the UK, including the City of London, is brought in and redistributed. I think in 2021, Scotland and NI had the highest expenditure per head and London raised the most revenue per head.

North Sea Income has been falling for years.

www.statista.com/statistics/350890/united-kingdom-uk-north-sea-revenue/

I felt a visceral response to your post, Kris02. I was born in 1961, after the world wars were over, when the West and the US were on the ascendant, when swinging London was just getting going and with democracy held in esteem after the overthrow of fascism. The world is changing fast. America's a basket-case and no longer the leading superpower. The future will be dominated by China and Russia and climate change and I have a horrible feeling things could get grim. In a way I feel as if my generation has been a lucky one that's escaped the kind of awfulness my parents (teenagers during WW2) went through.

I think when things start getting tough it's good to be part of something bigger. Bad enough that we left Europe but to break down into tinier states?

My dad was Scottish and I have a classic Scottish name. I did think, for some years, of retiring to Edinburgh, which is a great city. But not now.

But here's a question... what if the result is somewhere in the region of 52-55% in favour of independence. What does Westminster counter with to try and reinforce the Union?
It'll bribe the Scots with their own oil money, obviously! Though that leaves the issue of the money needed to help people get on the property ladder and the $$ needed to help families pay their 400 quid electricity bills (and that's without heating).

This is largely down to the “we subsidise you” myth that makes people think that Scotland contributes nothing to the UK economy and spend all of what they’re “gifted” on deep fried heroin.
If the whole UK were allowed a vote the “no” campaign wouldn’t have a leg to stand on as they would be telling Scotland they can’t afford to leave while telling England that they need Scotland’s contribution to balance the books.

And yet lots of people n here would say that people who voted for Brexit were thick and people would sneer at them.

I don't think that you or Brexit voters are thick. Everyone has their reasons for voting as they do. It can be how we feel about ourselves, about other politicians, our parents opinions, our community, our education and ambition, our travels, our personality our prejudices. And of course it can be because we have been misled or have wanted to believe lies that back up our held opinions.

But if you want people to respect your opinions, then, in turn, you have to respect theirs.

NS must have figures along these lines so why so stuck with the we’ll be better off line?

Is it just Brexit again with same emotive stuff not based on what the reality is

That's just what the Brexiteers said. How do you think Brexit's going?

Anyone who thinks that Scottish people want independence because they saw Braveheart is obviously acting like a talking donkey because they saw one on Shrek

The statement the World Bank made for all countries to prepare for recession was made 6 days ago, on June 10. And growth has just been downgraded even further, by another 1.2% since the World Banks forecast in January this year.

@MarshaBradyo Sturgeon is a politician and is as willing to lie as them all. We saw that over Salmond. She'll say whatever she thinks will be most persuasive. After all, she's hardly going to call for Independence and tell everyone it's going to be really shit, is she?

Based on the £414 million in Scottish oil revenue in 2021, that'll be worth around £80 per head of the Scotland's population. When Boris announced a new hospital building initiative his hospitals were costed at £600 million each.

I don't have any skin in this game but I urge those of you who do, check the figures and do the maths.

Agreed of course no one is “letting the Scottish stay” in the union, and if you push English people who say this or imply this they know it a nonsense, but there’s definitely the sense that it’s England doing Scotland the favour rather than the other way around.

There’s probably some anti-English feeling (I didn’t come across it in Scotland but then I’m not English so why would I, Im sure people are right to say it’s an issue) but it definitely seemed like more of an anti-Westminster thing, and definitely an anti-Tory party thing.

I’d imagine it’s just very difficult to say with certainty if independence will be good economically for Scotland in the long term. What kinds of measures would you use to forecast that? Not sure, there are so many unknowns that most forecasts would be pretty arbitrary. I suspect it would do very well long term given other similar sized nations do well even ones with fewer advantages than Scotland. In the short term it would be pretty tough, but it will also be very tough inside the UK arguably. I wouldn’t put it past the EU to make sure Scotland is accepted quickly and given LOTS of funding to show how great EU membership is, but equally it could take ages to sort that out.

I think that’s why Brexit was won, because the pro Brexit side were prepared to be pretty dishonest about the certainty of economic benefits flowing from Brexit. I don’t think the Yes campaign could do this, they can make the case as to why there’s reason to believe Scotland will be economically better off as an independent country, but they will have to acknowledge there will be some disruption in the short term I’d say, there won’t be any billions for the NHS on the side of buses anyway.

I wouldn’t think people were thick if they could show that they’d considered the big issues and understood them.

it’s clear posters don’t understand Schengen, how the EU, EFTA, passports, banks work and the answer is always an anecdotal “special agreement” that works somewhere

The idea that England is supporting Scotland is a red herring.
The vast majority of tax (67%) collected in scotland goes straight to the UK government in Westminster, and is not part of the calculation.
So claims of scottish people being subsidised be england are simply not true.
Tax collected in scotland from VAT, Fuel, exports, tobacco and alcohol, go straight to the the UK coffers in England.
These taxes- although raised in scotland are not counted towrads the balance sheet in scotland.

Can anyone explain where the Covid support money from Westminster has gone? Apparently it hasn’t all reached the businesses who needed it and SG are reluctant to, or can’t, say where it has gone.
Again , either incompetence or being used for another purpose. Much like the money destined for education in the most deprived areas which ended up propping up the police.
External auditors are needed now .

You can't base anything on figures for a COVID year. Still, it's really gone down since 2008. There's such a high demand for oil, surely Scotland could up the industry to closer to where it was before, then invest in other industries, diversify and bring it down again? And invest heavily in tourism too.

The Queen's DGC were given as an example and several famous people who used that money to pay their staff too and some bought fancy cars (as per the DM)

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-exactly-how-much-money-does-scotland-contribute-to-england-and-what-is-the-barnett-formula-3233129

I’m not sure what you mean. The money was given to the Scottish government but not distributed. To date SG cannot account for where it went. Why would they be giving it to royalty and famous people?

I’d be keen to hear how those supporting independence think NS is going to make up the deficit caused if she does leave the union?

you should be v worried because the only way she can close a deficit is through your bank balance. Simple as.

there is a clear lack of accountability within this Scottish government and the reason she is getting away with it is because the media are so against the Tories they enjoy her having a daily swipe at them!

the time will come when they turn on her though!!

the funding for schools in Scotland is outrageous and the support for children with ASNs is virtually non existent

Similarly Westminster heavily subsidised all the furlough, free school meals, Covid jabs for Scotland

can you IMAGINE how Scotland would afford such a crisis if they were independent?!

also Sturgeon thought it was a good idea to build 60 children capacity nursery’s on every school site - employing staff on full time 52 week contracts 8-6pm opening each day

all free! The costs, the pensions, the NI of all of these staff must be off the wall! You don’t have to work to pop your child in here all week either!