Guardian is publishing Russian Propaganda

[Swayingpalmtrees]

AIBU to be very disappointed that the Guardian has resorted to publishing Russian propaganda. It was shocking to read, largely inaccurate and wholly from the Russian perspective. I am all for listening to all sides, but there was no effort to understand how Ukraine feels, Ukraine's objective is clearly to win the war and reclaim their nation, and blaming the western leaders for arming Ukraine and the bloodshed caused by the Russians is somewhat misleading, Ukraine have every right to defend themselves.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks

Thank you.

And honestly, I'd be open to explanations as to how any of this Russian rearmament is going to work, given all the constraints they'll be operating under, but all we get is vague assumptions.

Hawkins, your syntax is much too akin to direct Russian translation to English. I wonder why.

так ли это на самом деле

Current war aside….All this Oxford smugness about backing arguments up with facts and evidence is all very well provided the facts are not lies. Lots of “facts” are actually lies. Or errors. Errors (and even lies) happen in medicine and science, which strive to be meticulous and unbiased, so I think it’s safe to assume they happen in politics and war which are often nothing of the sort.

Gotcha!

без какашек шерлока, вы желаете

We are still sending billions in USD to Russia, much of the world isn't sanctioning Russia, either in banking or in materials.
The UK has given Russia £220 million in the last 3 months in oil alone.

Russia still holds much of the East and south of Ukraine, will soon have a land corridor to Crimea, holds the Black Sea...

Much of the RoW has no intention of sanctioning Russia.

So i don't really understand why you think Russia will not be able to produce weapons for years to come?

Take your point on the separatists but also bare in mind, many of these were Russian military.

Not sure how high your tolerance is for nerdy war stuff, but Michael Kofman's War on the Rocks podcast of a couple of days ago is excellent on the multiple challenges to the Russian army and why he thinks the Donbas offensive is Russia's last chance for an offensive operation in this war - but one they are currently failing to make work. Everything he says is very sensible.

None of your post is really filling in any gaps @Alexandra2001. I mean, nobody thinks the Russian state will be completely without resources or money. These facts still don't tell us how this rearmament process is going to take place to the extent that it allows Russia to be as successful as you have claimed it will.

Do you think Russia will be buying from elsewhere, or making their own? If the former, presumably you understand that unlike Ukraine, this isn't likely to be any of the best stuff. The West won't, and the Chinese so far have been disinclined to help much, which is interesting in itself.

If the latter, how will this be achieved to a sufficiently high standard given the constraints of sanctions (note, the fact that Russia are still receiving money doesn't mean there is no impact) the increasing desire for energy security of most of the countries where they're actually able to transport their energy to, their lack of access to Western technology and talent plus the brain drain and probably most importantly, how will it be paid for in a manner that keeps enough of the Russian population onside? Are they going to cooperate sufficiently with a war footing? Then after this, how are the massive ongoing structural problems in the army going to be mitigated, particularly when they're quite literally haemmhoraging generals? Because you have to do more than just keep the frequently poor quality weapons coming. These are the sort of things you need to have answers to when you're talking about Russia being able to keep going for the long term as a fact.

It's on my list @FatherBuzzCagney! Agree the Donbass offensive isn't currently working for Russia. Which is another vital point.

@HardyBuckette I never said Russia would be successful! what i am saying is Russia has the means to continue this war for years to come & will replace the military that it it has lost.

Russia doesn't need hi tech precision weapons either but i strongly suspect they will find a way to produce these, probably in lower numbers but they do have the means to make unlimited numbers of non smart weapons.

The 'West isn't the only supplier of hi tech and no one really knows what China/RoW will do in the future or if Western countries will continue sanctions as the cost of living continues to spiral, to meet the 2030 target etc of no more fossil fueled cars, we need raw materials from Russia or pay far more as prices rise, taking the tech even further out of reach.

I want nothing more than Putin/Russia to be defeated and the rebuilding of Ukraine but right now, i just don't see that happening ... maybe in the future the signs will be more positive but i think we are heading for a long war of attrition/stalemate.... all this assumes Putin doesn't die/replaced.

I know what you said, and that's what we're discussing. If you think Russia is going to be able to continue the war for years to come, to the extent that anything short of full NATO involvement is unhelpful, as the article argues, that's a very big claim. It requires very big evidence.

In terms of the West not being the only supplier of high tech weaponry, who else will do it to the quality and extent necessary? China are the only big supplier outside the West currently. They've been compliant with sanctions so far and they're showing no evidence at all of wanting to provide substantial Russian assistance. Which is quite understandable. Xi has his own position to think of. He's already backed the wrong horse. He isn't likely to be very pleased about the impact Russia's botched invasion has had on the NATO and the West. Where's their incentive?

WRT the West still staying onside with sanctions, what you've left out is the general realisation that there are security concerns to being so reliant on a despotic regime run by an inept fuckwit. Sure, much of the West would like to return to the pre February 2022 status quo, where it was viable to ignore the occasional land war on the fringes of Europe in return for Putin playing ball... but that has gone. It's been torched. There's no longer an option available where we can turn a blind eye in return for energy and security.

Basically, you're still not backing anything up. It's fine to have a hunch or whatever, but in that case call it that. Don't refer to your suspicions as fact.

Sounds interesting! I'll have a listen. Thanks.

@HardyBuckette ...you like to put words in my mouth, i'll concede that!

Quote where i said Russia will import hi tech weapons? i was referring to the Hi Tech you claimed Russia needed to access these raw materials.... Do you really think Russia has no industry of it 's own?

No, i don't think the 'West or anyone else will put its own economic instability ahead of trade with Russia, we never have done that before with any other country...
Even now, we keep buying Russian oil and gas... our economies matter more to us and the RoW will buy their raw materials and in return sell them the imports they need, as they are doing so at present.

The UK and EU are saying oil imports will stop by the end of the year... gas? yet to be decided on.... not great is it? no word on the range of other raw materials the 'west import from Russia.

On evidence, neither of us can supply that, we can only look at the situation on the ground, its fluid, has and will change but most military experts do not believe Russia is on the brink of collapse as you appear to do.

This is still all very vague. I'd like to avoid putting words into your mouth, so tell me if I'm being clear here: you think Russia will be able to domestically manufacture all the necessary high teach weaponry to achieve a stalemate with a country currently being supplied with Western arms, by themselves? If that's not what you mean and I've misunderstood, I'd appreciate clarification, and if it is what you mean then how?

Re Russia having their own industry: you're conflating the existence of industry with the ability to obtain or create the necessary technology to get at very difficult to access raw materials. Russia is currently reliant on the West for this expertise and tech, we know that. Are you saying this is going to change, and if so, how will that happen?

In terms of the economy, around 60% of the global economy currently belongs to the countries sanctioning Russia, and a good chunk of the rest is the Chinese who are observant of sanctions. Nobody thinks some of the rest of the planet, who aren't a monolithic bloc, won't trade with them at all, particularly not the sort of trade that doesn't involve going against the US and Europe on sanctions. The question is how Russia are going to be able to weather the economic damage we know has happened and is still happening, whilst also being able to continue this very damaging war. You argue that sanctions will eventually be seen as damaging to the West, but that completely ignores the fact that energy and economic security are both part of that picture and both threatened by reliance on Russia. It's also simply a prediction, so again doesn't tell us why you're using the term 'fact'.

As for putting words into mouths, who said anything about Russia being on the brink of collapse? That's a strawman. There's a vast gulf between ceasing to function and being able to sustain a lengthy and costly stalemate war. You claimed the latter to be a fact, and you've still not evidenced this.

There is an excellent assessment of the war to date in the Telegraph this morning alex which basically sums up the situation that Russia are failing to make any headway whatsoever in the East or South. The military have issues with supply of weapons, food, tanks that are stranded in the mud so are having to use roads which is dangerous. Soldiers that were not rested are now appearing very fatigued, morale has hit rock bottom and there is no end in sight.

My guess is that Russia may try and reinvigorate their efforts on Victory day - but it is unlikely to change anything on the ground.

Most experts do believe Russia's invasion efforts are certainly on the brink of collapse - yes. They did not plan for a war to last for months. All bets are off.
The economy in Russia is on life support, they just made the repayments to avoid a default, but without access to their reserves due to sanctions it is a matter of time.
This is going to worsen for Russia by the day - medical supplies have run out/running out, many areas of Russia do not have basic supplies or access to banking and this is just the start....

I am sorry to say but the worst is yet to come for Russia, in terms of the economical hit that is coming.

Putin has badly miscalculated the global response to his illegal invasion, he assumed he would be in Kyiv by day three, and it would be 'lightening quick' invasion and the west would have no time to respond.
Betting on a sloth like response from the EU, a weak Nato hands off approach and the same lack of interest when he did the dummy run with Crimea - he did not foresee or plan for a stalemate war that would last for years, maybe decades with the whole world sanctioning the shit out of Russia and a rush to supply world class weapons from around the world, along with military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
Putin has totally overplayed his hand (and some) and is now in deep shit, in a lose lose situation, worse still the world can now see that the second rate Russian army is twenty years out of date of very limited means and capability and certainly no match for NATO. On reflection this has now taken the 'fear' factor out of the equation about any future conflict, hence we now see Putin playing his last card - nuclear threats. It is very telling he has resorted so quickly to that....it is a pure acknowledgment that he can't win any other way....

I am sorry to say but the worst is yet to come for Russia, in terms of the economical hit that is coming.

Putin has badly miscalculated the global response to his illegal invasion, he assumed he would be in Kyiv by day three, and it would be 'lightening quick' invasion and the west would have no time to respond.
Betting on a sloth like response from the EU, a weak Nato hands off approach and the same lack of interest when he did the dummy run with Crimea - he did not foresee or plan for a stalemate war that would last for years, maybe decades with the whole world sanctioning the shit out of Russia and a rush to supply world class weapons from around the world, along with military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
Putin has totally overplayed his hand (and some) and is now in deep shit, in a lose lose situation, worse still the world can now see that the second rate Russian army is twenty years out of date of very limited means and capability and certainly no match for NATO. On reflection this has now taken the 'fear' factor out of the equation about any future conflict, hence we now see Putin playing his last card - nuclear threats. It is very telling he has resorted so quickly to that....it is a pure acknowledgment that he can't win any other way....

Putin has totally overplayed his hand (and some) and is now in deep shit, in a lose lose situation, worse still the world can now see that the second rate Russian army is twenty years out of date of very limited means and capability and certainly no match for NATO. On reflection this has now taken the 'fear' factor out of the equation about any future conflict

Yup. Relatedly, it's no wonder the Chinese aren't up for doing much to help Russia get out of the hole they've dug themselves.

I think the writer is right. Russia followed this plan in Syria, he annihilated cities, ground them down with ongoing barrage assaults over months until they were decimated and helpless with every bit of infrastructure destroyed and hundreds of thousands killed. Putin has barely used his armed forces- his military power is vast and, if he unleashes it, it could be catastrophic.
I don't think Nato starting a huge war is the answer - Putin would use nuclear weapons if they did.
I don't know what the answer is but what is happening at the moment is pointless. Ukraine can not win. This is simply a stage in a plan of attack by Putin.

Johnson is determined to create an image of himself as some sort of international statesman/leader from this.Sending hundreds of millions in weapons, appearing in Kyiv. It is all pointless, jostling for a position of i portance on a world stage.

The truth is Britain is done- we are insignificant on the world stage. We are a tiny country, with no resources or significant industry or land or military reserves, whose time on the world stage was 100-200 years ago. Power now resides in China, Russia and the US. Europe and Britain are finished as big powers. If the US left Nato, Russia would be uninterested in Europe once we were no military threat.He is not interested in our culture and would not want most of Europe as part if Russia - although he might want some of o.d parys of the USSR back to give him a 'buffer'.

Putin has barely used his armed forces- his military power is vast and, if he unleashes it, it could be catastrophic

So are you honestly saying Putin is suffering the terrible humiliation of his army being forced out and to the East, tens of thousands of deaths of young Russians if he has some mighty power yet to be unleashed?? Pull the other one! It might have bells on.

it's no wonder the Chinese aren't up for doing much to help Russia

China does not need any further PR disasters after covid. I am sure Russia is not the attractive junior partner it once was...its all rather tarnished now with incompetence.

Oh yeah, there's having to be a rethink now. The mighty Russian war machine was supposed to leave NATO on the back foot and be another blow to the West. Instead they've managed to strengthen Western interests and unity, probably enlarge NATO, get Europe and North America closer to singing from the same hymn sheet than they have been in yonks and the Chinese have been obliged to observe sanctions in return for a quiet life. To say nothing of what the Taiwanese are going to think of all this. President Xi Jinping must be equal parts embarrassed and furious.

Exactly that is it in a nutshell hardy this has been an unmitigated disaster on an epic scale for Russia.
Sweden and Finland will join NATO in the next few days, which has caused fury in Russia but what did they expect? All countries have now pledged to pay much more for defence now this has happened, emboldening NATO even more. Every country can now see clearly as we watch the terrible genocide unfold in Bucha the importance of deterrence and NATO. Russia have in fact served up the most perfect visually compelling reason why the post war alliances are so very important. Every single person in the west has witnessed the horror of the unfolding war in Ukraine, and as a result the invigoration of commitment to defend democracy at all costs now replaces the lethargic indifference we felt before. At no other time has a civilisation been woken up from their cosy feelings of stability to understand the threat we are all now living with, were living with all along ....and we can no longer sit idly by and assume our free world will stay free. We can't afford another moment of complacency.

That does not stop at Russia, a full reassessment will be taking place regarding China, Iran and NK and all the rest. Our eyes were forced open when we watched the blood bath in Ukraine, and Russia will not recover from this terrible act of evil for generations, if ever.

To say this has backfired for Russia is an understatement. There is no coming back from this, no matter what they do next. There is no way to win this war.

The very best thing they can do now, is gently pull back and return to Russia, Putin should retire and the next leader will have to move heaven and earth to convince the rest of the world that changes, real changes can and will be made. Compensation paid to Ukraine and peace agreements made between the two countries. There is a peaceful exit, but I expect Putin is too proud and full of ego to take it.

While not disagreeing with the above, I think there is a lot of misunderstanding in the West about the ability of Russia and its people to a) withstand hardships - the country is built on suffering, so tightening up belts is nothing new for its population - hence this can go on for longer than anticipated and b) the technological progress the country has made recently - while there is a lot of rural poverty and financial inequality in the country, the educational standards there are pretty good and it is not quite such a backwards place many in the West imagine.

Again, I am definitely not saying that Russia can win this war, only that this will potentially last longer than we think. We may well end up in a situation of stalemate unless NATO interferes directly.

Power now resides in China, Russia and the US.

Russia has a smaller economy than most European countries, where's all this power going to come from once they've pulled their fingers out and stopped buying Russia's oil and gas?

Russia maybe had some proxy power via China, but China's distancing themselves now their economy is struggling and they don't need to be tarnished by Russia.

As for the UK being "done" and "tiny" - we're the fifth largest economy in the world. We're a permanent member of the UN Security Council. We're one of five members of the Five Eyes group. We're one of only three nuclear powers in NATO. We're only of only five established nuclear powers in the world. These are not opinions, they're facts.