Do you think the Covid situation will ever deteriorate again so badly that we need another lockdown?

[goaskmum]

Posting here for traffic.

I’m in no way suggesting the situation will ever deteriorate and I’m in no way advocating another lockdown.

I’m genuinely curious though, do you think the situation will get worse again, perhaps in the winter, were the hospitals can’t cope and we end up back in lockdown again?

Or do you think because most people are immune to covid either through having it or being vaccinated that it will keep on getting better from here on and there will never ever be a single restriction imposed again?

YABU - there will never ever be anymore restrictions. It’s over
YANBU - there could very well be another lockdown in the future if it gets out of hand

Nope I very much doubt it will happen especially not for covid.

People will analyse data from covid for years, what different countries did, the effects on covid, MH ie suicide rates, and the effects on other illnesses and things like cancers being missed. I think they are slowly admitting lockdown isn't the answer.

And that's before you consider the effects on the economy.

There is a middle ground between no restrictions ever and lockdowns. I don’t think we will ever have a full lockdown again but think they may bring back masks and testing/isolating if hospitals can’t cope next winter.

I was talking to a doctor who specialises in infectious disease recently and they said that absolutely there would need to be another lockdown.

However there is zero public appetite for another lockdown and as the previous poster said impact on the economy is huge. So while we may need a lockdown it won't happen.

As far as I can see that the main issue is capacity in hospitals. They are struggling now with the backlog. So if there is another rise in hospital treatment for Covid becomes an issue of who do you treat.

Unlikely, because of the overall cost, but depends on what future mutations do and whether we keep up with developing treatments and immunisations.

There's no routine testing now except NHS etc. So there won't be an accurate number of infections to work from. See no evil....

How would they decide to lockdown without any numbers?

@Lougle

There's no routine testing now except NHS etc. So there won't be an accurate number of infections to work from. See no evil....

How would they decide to lockdown without any numbers?

There is still the ONS study, which is actually being extended (to Scotland for example). And they will still report on deaths and presumably hospitalisations.

From what I hear, it’s dependent on what variants emerge.

How would they decide to lockdown without any numbers?

If hospital cases increase, and that's what lockdown was only ever meant to do, ease pressure on the NHS.
Except certain parts of the UK are using covid as a flag waving event but currently have the highest covid numbers.

I think hell will freeze over before Boris locks the country down again ..... not only that there will not be the compliance that we had 2 years ago, so whilst he maybe able to close businesses, people mixing would still occur.
Could the country afford another complete lockdown??

I hope not but sadly I don’t have a crystal ball. The situation remains unpredictable.

I will never say never, however I think they will struggle with public appetite for restrictions let alone lockdown.

I know more people absolutely thrilled that testing and isolation are now gone than I do people who are concerned about it.

Coming to MN is like a parallel universe sometimes.

I struggle to see how restrictions/ lockdown will be effective without widespread compliance.

I suspect if it mutates again and the next strain starts being fatal for younger people and/or children then yes we will lockdown again.

Not likely unless it's a brand new disease.

Unless a new variant that makes a far higher percentage of vaccinated people very ill I think it's unlikely. The public would only lockdown if they were scared.

I couldn’t really choose an option with any conviction. I’m a terminal fence sitter and there’s always a possibility for most situations.

For us to lockdown again things would have to be really bad i.e a significant proportion of the population would have to be experiencing/witnessing it for themselves. For that to happen we would have to be really unlucky with future variants. It’s all possible and truthfully it’s very hard to judge how likely it is because we have no way of predicting what corona will do in terms of its evolution. It’s all best guesses then people peacocking when their guess happens.

If things continue on the current course, no, a lockdown is very unlikely because it’s just not needed.

YABU - people just would not be suckered again.

I don’t think so.
We can’t afford another lockdown.
Plus, now we’ve got vaccines available and we know how to run it, ie WFH, pop up hospitals in car parks, masks etc, those in charge can put rules in place quickly to reduce the spread.

I don’t think so. It’s such a blunt, backward tactic. And lockdown benefits the comfortable middle-classes too much at the expense of everyone else.

I do think gvt might reverse-ferret on (ending) free testing if surges happen or a new variant emerges.

Masks… dunno. We’ve still got them in Scotland, most people do wear them out and about too IME. And we’ve had peaking case numbers for weeks now.

Your vote is wrong. Restrictions aren’t a lockdown. I can see them bringing back strong advice to work from home, wear a mask in certain situations etc but there’s going to be no appetite for a further lockdown and they wouldn’t get it through parliament.

We didn’t for Delta or Omicron so unless something really unexpected happens I can’t see a full lockdown

Omicron restrictions (masks wfh testing isolation) yes alongside a booster/new vaccine is entirely possible

Probably not.The cost of PCR tests now they are no longer free are unaffordable for most ordinary families on a budget;this means most Covid cases will go unrecorded and the National statistics will be false as they'll show a large reduction in covid numbers when this isn't the case.

It's all about money.

It all depends on what future variants are like.

If vaccines, as seem likely, wear off and people don't bother getting an annual booster, and a new variant that brings more serious disease pattern, then yes of course NHS will be in a parlours state.

But there's no sense in worrying about that until it happened.

(if there were changes that meant that age regulation of ACE2 were no longer a factor (because new mutations slightly alter how the virus enters) and therefore no longer had age protection, I expect MNetters would sharply change opinion of value of lockdowns)

I don’t think we’ll have another lockdown. The negatives outweigh the benefits of lockdown now and there’s no government or public want for one. There wasn’t a lockdown winter 2021 with omicron. There’s also so many restrictions that can be put into place before a lockdowns even mentioned, so we might have public testing brought back in and maybe masks if things get bad but I doubt much more than that.

@thenewduchessoflapland

Probably not.The cost of PCR tests now they are no longer free are unaffordable for most ordinary families on a budget;this means most Covid cases will go unrecorded and the National statistics will be false as they'll show a large reduction in covid numbers when this isn't the case.

It's all about money.

I expect there will still be testing on arrival at hospital if admission is likely, and before planned admissions.

Plus non-symptomatic testing for staff in certain occupations.

Plus non-symptomatic testing it was promised for the severely immunecompromised, but not yet included (though symptomatic testing continues as gate to antibody and antiviral treatments)

There isn't going to be another lockdown in the near future. That ship has sailed.

The political maths isn't there, in that Johnson would be kicked out by his own party if he tried it and the replacement wouldn't be willing to do it either. The current government are not in any place to extract adherence from the population, given their own activities. The trust is gone. And in order for a lockdown to get numbers under control or flatten any curves, a lot of people have to be paid to stay at home. That money has to come from the state coffers, which also isn't happening.

There does come a point when a virus is so dangerous that people are so afraid they're willing to sacrifice their own livelihoods, on a widespread basis. That possibility always exists, but it's a very rare thing. Most pandemics get nowhere close, and this one hasn't either.

Nope because the public would never support it. We supported the first one because a lot of us were terrified and thought there was a high chance it could kill us. Second one support was already waning but we cracked on with it because barely anyone was vaccinated. Now everyone is vaccinated, some people four times over so there’s just no need for a lockdown. It destroys the economy, education and mental health. We just have to live with it like the flu.