Do you think the Covid situation will ever deteriorate again so badly that we need another lockdown?

[goaskmum]

Posting here for traffic.

I’m in no way suggesting the situation will ever deteriorate and I’m in no way advocating another lockdown.

I’m genuinely curious though, do you think the situation will get worse again, perhaps in the winter, were the hospitals can’t cope and we end up back in lockdown again?

Or do you think because most people are immune to covid either through having it or being vaccinated that it will keep on getting better from here on and there will never ever be a single restriction imposed again?

YABU - there will never ever be anymore restrictions. It’s over
YANBU - there could very well be another lockdown in the future if it gets out of hand

There would have to be a variant that was virulant and immune escaping to a very high degree. It seems very unlikely but not impossible. Bit like we live with flu but the Spanish flu mutation killed the young and healthy.

At the moment there is 100-150 dying every day with/of Covid

If there is a more dangerous or vaccine escaping variant that kills 1000 a day again then yes I think appetite for lockdown will increase

For me it's if it comes down the age ranges - at the moment it's the over 80's dying with the disease - if people in their 70s/60s/50s start dying in greater numbers then yes lockdown

People saying lockdown didn't save lives are crazy - they estimate 200000 lives were saved in the first lockdown

I dont think there qill be a lockdown as dont think people would comply and cost to the vulnerable is too high.

However maybe life will have to change in other ways? Schools are crippled at the moment with so many staff off, more so than any time before when we were concerned about viability of schools. Nhs is crumbling .

Its all v well kids being hardly ill and in school (as I kind of want for my kids) but so many sick adults that need time off work has such a huge impact across all sectors.

Also if people are going to be ill every few months, as well as working patterns that starts ti affect quality of life. Especially those who, while not hospitalised, feel pretty bad - not just survivig it onve but every few months is tricky

I think there needs to be more attention to living with covid (more staff in schools/nhs to cover predictable absences? Catch up nhs backlog) . Rather than sweeping it away.

The "backlog" too is talked about almost as an administrative issue, yet each person waiting 18 months for an appointment is a person whose life is affected.

I think appetite for lockdown would increase if the death rates were to soar, but there are other pieces that would need to be put in place and lots of people who simply aren't going to do that again. The trust in lockdown as a positive thing is nowhere near what it was two years ago or even in January 2021.

Could only see it happening if:

• there was enough public will for lockdowns. Easy to forget now how popular they were at the time, but hard to see how that would come back now people are less scared, have already been infected/vaccinated/both, and have been through the months-long misery of lockdowns rather than imagining a few weeks at home would sort it.

• government felt that not locking down would be more damaging than the massive massive cost, financial and otherwise, of locking down. Including all the issues that were glossed over in the climate of panic and uncertainty in early 2020 but are starting to bite now.

• there would be an actual aim for lockdowns to achieve. Last time we were trying to keep health system impact low while we waited for vaccines. ‘Temporarily get cases down’ does not do much if you just end up with all those same cases again when lockdown is lifted.

I don’t think those things are at all likely to happen, so therefore, no.

I don't think there'll be another full lockdown. I do think we'll be back in masks and lining up for another booster in the autumn though. Probably. Y mid October once the schools have been back for a month or so.

Is it possible? Of course it is.

Is it likely? As things stand, no I wouldn't think so.

Do I want another lockdown? Absolutely not.

If the experts decide another lockdown is needed at any point, I'd trust that were for good reason.

The fact that you even see a lockdown as a solution or a possibility shows how people want to be infantilised. It’s shows that being babied is still an option to people even after seeing the health and economic devastation caused by this disastrous policy. The mind really boggles.

there was enough public will for lockdowns. Easy to forget now how popular they were at the time, but hard to see how that would come back now people are less scared, have already been infected/vaccinated/both, and have been through the months-long misery of lockdowns rather than imagining a few weeks at home would sort it.

Yes, this is an interesting point. The support for lockdowns was essentially ongoing. People didn't consent to two or three months at home from the off, they consented to three or so weeks in advance, on multiple occasions. Which isn't the same thing at all, particularly in spring 2020 when this was all new. I think there was a bit more idea in January 2021, though obviously nobody knew how awful it was going to be in the depths of winter, but the reason that was accepted as widely as it was is the vaccine. Again not applicable.

There is also increasing awareness now of the harm of lockdowns. I don't seek to make any argument about whether they did more bad than good because I don't think we can know the answer to that yet, But we do now have information about eg the disproportionate harm that restrictions caused to already disadvantaged groups. Lockdown and significant restrictions become a much harder sell when you have to justify doing that again, which wasn't the case for the last two.

No not for covid. It would have to be another disease.

There was an announcement recently that flu vaccines are going back to pre-covid rules, eg not offered to all high school pupils. I can see that changing come autumn, and everyone being offered flu and a covid booster. But we shall see.

@Lougle

There's no routine testing now except NHS etc. So there won't be an accurate number of infections to work from. See no evil....

How would they decide to lockdown without any numbers?

They decided on lockdown in Mar 20 before testing and numbers were available.

The ONS survey is still continuing. That will ge looking at the community levels of covid.

@HardyBuckette

I think appetite for lockdown would increase if the death rates were to soar, but there are other pieces that would need to be put in place and lots of people who simply aren't going to do that again. The trust in lockdown as a positive thing is nowhere near what it was two years ago or even in January 2021.

I'm seeing increasing awareness of the massive number of infections at the moment. Everyone seems to have close friends, family, co-workers with it, and that's impacting, i.e. cancelling social events, workplace staff shortages, product/delivery delays etc. I certainly know people who've started wearing masks again, cutting down close contacts, avoiding crowded places. The "feel good" factor of the lifting of restrictions seems to have been very short lived and people are starting to become wary again.

I don't know. I just know whatever happens I'm living my life. The propaganda, manipulation, hysteria, hypocrisy and downright lying associated with the last lot is the best antidote to compliance. I wasn't suckered in the first time, either.

I'm seeing increasing awareness of the massive number of infections at the moment.

That’s not the same thing as appetite for a lockdown, though.

There are of course some people who will go right from “I see lots of covid around” to “we should lock down now!” but to get public support for a lockdown you need to get most people thinking that, and they just don’t.

It could. Mutations can go either way but it unlikely to be omicron it will be another strain.

Globally when omicron takes over completely could be a good thing as we will have levels of immunity to this strain.

But if another variant proves to be lethal then I expect masks and distancing might be brought in to curb the spread for a while. Slow the hospitalisation rate. But that's all.

We have vaccines and treatments that weren't available for original strains.

It will all boil down to the number of people dying in the end.

I'm seeing increasing awareness of the massive number of infections at the moment. Everyone seems to have close friends, family, co-workers with it, and that's impacting, i.e. cancelling social events, workplace staff shortages, product/delivery delays etc. I certainly know people who've started wearing masks again, cutting down close contacts, avoiding crowded places. The "feel good" factor of the lifting of restrictions seems to have been very short lived and people are starting to become wary again.

This is very, very different to appetite for lockdown though. Also the social stuff doesn't remotely match what I'm seeing around me, where people are more than over it and want to make up for lost time. I accept that considerable variation on this point exists in the population, but that's the point really. For lockdown to ever be a realistic possibility, you need a critical mass of the population to buy into it. We do not have that. It's not something that can be sustained long term.

I don't rule out the possibility that masks might return at some point though, it's a relatively minimal intervention and ticks a 'doing something' box for those who want one.

YABU for using those options! Far more likely is a middle ground of some restrictions being reintroduced but short of a full lockdown

I think the government will do everything to try to avoid more lockdowns but I don't think they can be totally ruled out.

I can see restrictions and testing being reintroduced as necessary to avoid lockdown.

@comealongponds

YABU for using those options! Far more likely is a middle ground of some restrictions being reintroduced but short of a full lockdown

Thing is though that any variant which could dissolve omicron would have to be more infectious than omicron, and in that case restrictions short of lockdown are unlikely to do very much.

(hello from Scotland, where with omicron we still have mandatory masks and available testing and a lot of guidelines restricting use of public space to limit transmission and WFH-sometimes advice from the government, and… the highest rates in the UK by a hefty margin.)

I don't think there will be another lockdown. I do sometimes worry that the problems currently with schools and hospitals are going to be permanent though. I haven't been allowed to go into my dc's primary school for 2 years now and for selfish reasons I am really hoping that my 3rd dc will be allowed to have his year 6 class photo, leavers service, school concert and leavers barbeque like his brothers did. None of that has been happening since 2019 in our primary school. Secondary school has been a bit better. We have been allowed to attend dc3's open evening, dc2's options evening, dc1 and dc2's award ceremony and dc2's SEN review this year. Still no plays or concerts though. Dc1 gets to have his leavers assembly and prom though, really pleased about that.

displace omicron, I meant, not dissolve… would be cool if it could dissolve it though

There's a potential scenario where a highly life-threatening strain mutates that is resistant to the vaccine: in that situation lockdown would be the only possibility both to save lives and to keep the strain off the NHS. No idea how likely that is, though.

I only think there would be a lockdown if a highly virulent, super deadly, variant emerged that was immune to the vaccines, and a high proportion of the population started needing hospitalisation or died. That’s the worst case scenario.