Do you think the Covid situation will ever deteriorate again so badly that we need another lockdown?

[goaskmum]

Posting here for traffic.

I’m in no way suggesting the situation will ever deteriorate and I’m in no way advocating another lockdown.

I’m genuinely curious though, do you think the situation will get worse again, perhaps in the winter, were the hospitals can’t cope and we end up back in lockdown again?

Or do you think because most people are immune to covid either through having it or being vaccinated that it will keep on getting better from here on and there will never ever be a single restriction imposed again?

YABU - there will never ever be anymore restrictions. It’s over
YANBU - there could very well be another lockdown in the future if it gets out of hand

I was talking to a doctor who specialises in infectious disease recently and they said that absolutely there would need to be another lockdown.

Does this "doctor who specialises in infectious disease" have a crystal ball?

Because the only thing that would require a lockdown is a much more severe variant, something for which there is zero evidence at present. So how can this "doctor who specialises in infectious disease" make such a statement with such certainty?

I'd never say never. But I think compliance would be so low that the government wouldn't even bother trying.

@zingally

I'd never say never. But I think compliance would be so low that the government wouldn't even bother trying.

Tbh judging by the 2020/21 timeline of events the lockdowns were preceded by many people enforcing their own precautions leaving the government with little choice but to step in and make plans because the effects were happening anyway iyswim. Controlled, directed panic is always better than conflicting priorities panic.

We saw it to an extent last Christmas when the data regarding omicron was tentatively optimistic but not certain. People were cautious even when not compelled to be and made judgements about what they wanted to prioritise. It certainly impacted hospitality to the point they were calling on the government to help which they didn’t because on paper there was nothing standing in their way.

But that’s what I and others are saying, unless there is widespread severe effects impacting a significant number of people directly there is never widespread support for government intervention. Unfortunately that runs the risk of running into problems later down the line. You see it in many, many sectors. People simply aren’t naturally wired to embrace prevention unless it’s an absolute certainty they themselves will be affected.

No, we can't afford another one - the government know this - and who would bother complying anyway? But possibly some 'mild' and generally useless restrictions may return every winter such as mandatory face coverings in some settings.

It's all a load of posturing baloney anyway, I never bothered with the rules in the first place.

It’s amazing how many threads are moved so promptly to the feminism section but this covid crap is allowed to clutter up aibu rather than going to the covid section of mumsnet.

Yesterday got texts telling us not to avoid A&E at our local hospital as they are struggling to cope. Yes it's covid related, numbers with covid are increasing rapidly in there and they're very low on some staff for the same reason.

I think there will be a need for another lockdown before the year is out, but we won't have one if Boris Johnson is still in charge and I doubt a different Tory leader would be able to persuade the back benchers to go along with it.

In the very unlikely event there was an election and in the even more unlikely event Starmer got in, I think there would be another lockdown even if it weren't really necessary because he would relish the opportunity to flex his power, also during lockdowns crime reduces (aside perhaps from domestic violence) so he'd be able to say "hey, six months after I got in crime plummeted" or similar.

@Theluggage15

It’s amazing how many threads are moved so promptly to the feminism section but this covid crap is allowed to clutter up aibu rather than going to the covid section of mumsnet.

Covid affects everyone, feminism is only of interest to women really and not all women at that.

People say that they would never comply but that's not true is it? If we had a virus like we saw in the film contagion for example then I think most people would stay in their homes pdq.

But since that is as close to 'never going to happen' as it's possible to get, people won't have their 'never going to comply again, no matter what' stance tested.

@IncompleteSenten

People say that they would never comply but that's not true is it? If we had a virus like we saw in the film contagion for example then I think most people would stay in their homes pdq.

But since that is as close to 'never going to happen' as it's possible to get, people won't have their 'never going to comply again, no matter what' stance tested.

I honestly do think people would be out smashing shit up and murdering each other with something as virulent as a Contagion scenario. The parameters we're talking about in this thread just wouldn't apply. People are more talking about what we've had so far and what's been typical in modern pandemics, locating it within those experiences. So possibly something worse than we've had so far with covid, but not that level of mortality.

@Theluggage15

It’s amazing how many threads are moved so promptly to the feminism section but this covid crap is allowed to clutter up aibu rather than going to the covid section of mumsnet.

All you need to do is try sticking a vote on it. They've refused to move Covid threads for that specific reason before.

Actually, @HardyBuckette you are quite right. I momentarily forgot what utter shits people generally are 😁

I don't think we'll ever have a proper lockdown again, because people will never comply.

@hopeishere

I was talking to a doctor who specialises in infectious disease recently and they said that absolutely there would need to be another lockdown.

However there is zero public appetite for another lockdown and as the previous poster said impact on the economy is huge. So while we may need a lockdown it won't happen.

As far as I can see that the main issue is capacity in hospitals. They are struggling now with the backlog. So if there is another rise in hospital treatment for Covid becomes an issue of who do you treat.

Why and when did the.doctor.think.we.might.need to lock down again?

And for what purpose? Lockdowns are not a cure, with such a infectious disease it is unlikely to eradicate - merely slow it down, artificially flatten the curve.

The two we had were incredibly useful in buying time. THe first to learn about it and to start the creation of a vaccine. The second to roll out the vaccine.

With this current Omicron strain - what would a lockdown achieve? What would we try and do with the time it would give us. What positives would we gain to offset the sheer loses it would cause

For example Manchester Airport has said that another lockdown and that is it - its gone.

Probably not, but there is already a rise in cases needing hospitalisation and schools are struggling to maintain classes running as normal, with some closing yr groups /particular classes. So I think certain areas may bring back certain rules.
I'm sure Scotland have cancelled removing facemasks for the 2nd time.

It's really hard to call when Scotland are going to get rid of mask rules, because it's not something that's evidence based at this point.

Yeah alright. As long as those who stayed at home last time getting everything delivered, all their services supplied, their bins emptied etc swap places with the poor buggers who had no choice but to go out to work every day to keep the country running.

@southeastdweller

No, we can't afford another one - the government know this - and who would bother complying anyway? But possibly some 'mild' and generally useless restrictions may return every winter such as mandatory face coverings in some settings.

It's all a load of posturing baloney anyway, I never bothered with the rules in the first place.

Thanks for that.

My DH caught Covid in work, he worked on travel money in a department store, customer comes in to change their left over Euro's to £'s. Proudly announces they're just back from Italy and supposed to be isolating.

DH spent two weeks in bed for pretty much 22 hours a day and took months to fully recover, during which time I had to look after him, try to homeschool our DS and give him some kind of routine, and somehow manage to put hours into my full time job as well. While I was ill as well, just fortunately mildly enough that I could work through it and just feel like shit.

swap places with the poor buggers who had no choice but to go out to work every day to keep the country running

I worked through all three lockdowns (back office NHS) and have to say there were up and downsides for everyone. I don’t think it was a walk in the park for anyone if you talk deeply enough with people.

I remember the advice on here to those struggling at with being indoors was to join volunteers running errands for others if they were able to. Such a group were a lifeline for my CEV df living over 100 miles away.

I suppose my point is an awful lot of people didn’t consider themselves ‘poor buggers’. I certainly don’t.

There were a mixture positives and negatives for most people, all good or all bad would be the extremes. But I think the point being made is that there was a tendency among some, who were able to stay in nice homes and mitigate the downsides of lockdown with comforts delivered by others who were taking the risk on their behalf, to not always understand how bad it was for others who weren't that fortunate. And to not get how dehumanising it might be to be expected to do risky jobs involving interaction in order to earn enough to live, but then not to be allowed less risky interaction with their loved ones outside of work because that wasn't important. Doesn't apply to all the laptop class of course.

With the current variant I think it is unlikely, there is no public appetite for it and the government don't want the unpopularity associated with it.

If a deadlier variant comes out it is possible we could lock down again.

It is possible for lockdowns to come back for a new disease. We are a global travelling world, things don't stay contained. The world has had SARS, Swine flu, MERS, COVID, etc. all in pretty recent years. Swine flu wasn't very deadly so didn't lock us down, MERS was incredibly deadly but didn't have the transmissibility. It is when high death rates and high transmissibility come together that we have problems. In the scheme of things COVID didn't count as having a high death rate and we locked down for that because the transmissibility was so high that many died despite it being a low percentage. Lock down was necessary, it will probably be again sometime in the next 20 years.

If you get something with the death rate of MERS but the transmissibility of COVID... We will have a big problem. And here's the thing, it isn't an unlikely scenario

I don't think it deteriorated badly enough to justify the last lockdowns so no! There's no public appetite for another lockdown. It was a massive overreaction. Unless bodies start piling up outside hospitals then no never again.

I was never convinced in the validity of the lockdowns, but reluctantly complied as I assumed the ‘experts’ knew what they were talking about.

Many, many good friends and colleagues have since admitted that they disregarded the rules throughout and continued to meet up with family regardless. If they were a general cross section and reflection of the general public, it shows just how pointless and irrelevant the restrictions actually were.

I work in ICU and the Covid Red Zone is at capacity AGAIN. And it's only a matter of time before the death rate starts to climb back up.

Never mind, just put your fingers in your ears, run around the garden in a circle and keep chanting loudly, "lalala , I'm not listening."