Chancellor’s spring statement

[Cheesecakeandwineinasuitcase]

AIBU to think that today we are about to be hugely disappointed by what Rishi says in his spring statement and just to realise just how out of touch he is with the grim reality that normal people (I.e. not millionaire politicians) in the Uk face?

My prediction is that he won’t back down on the 1.25% increase in NI contributions that he is making people pay from April. There will be a paltry reduction in fuel duty (maybe a few pence if we are lucky - but that will easily be cancelled out within a few days as prices increase to compensate). Maybe he will reduce the duty on champagne this time or some other gimmicky sweetener (wasn’t it Prosecco last time?). He might raise the threshold from which people have to start paying tax but for most working families that won’t make a jot of difference.

So it feels like we are sitting ducks and that as time goes by more and more people end up really struggling.

Indeed. People need to empathise more with the problems that others face I bet few on this thread have thought about the problems of a Chancellor who needs to face his billionaire chums and has job worries about where the votes will come from for his leadership challenge. Makes 'heat or eat' pale into insignificance. You all need to empathise more with the truly disadvantaged.

I am genuinely sorry about your post, OP. These are indeed hard times. If only it were the Roaring Twenties like F Scott Fitzgerald's Gatsby instead. Except for the end (spoilers).

I voted YABU just for the use of the term "working families".

@RiverFlowers

So if you earn under £13k a year, will that mean you don't qualify for your "pension" stamps each year?

@RiverFlowers I asked that upthread and the answer is you'll be ok as there's no increase to the lower earnings level ( c £120 ) a week. So 'stamps' paid as before.

'working families' 'hard working' 'just about managing'. Don't be mean. Someone is paid to think this up.

Don't mention a majority of UC? recipients are in work and the low-wage economy scandalously subsidises employers. We need to demonise benefit recipients. They should work harder (even though some of the hardest working people I've met are on NMW so have to work long hours). Or been luckier about into which families they were born.

@Cheeseplease1976

The BOE need to raise interest rates to combat inflation but they know if they do it will collapse the housing Ponzi scheme. People are addicted to low interest rates - interest rates need to be around the same as inflation to get it under control but they know what will happen - black Wednesday all over again. The country is fucked until that happens!

The sources of inflation are largely external to the UK economy so raising rates will do very little to bring inflation down, and will probably actually make the economy worse overall.

We need improved productivity. That's thw only way to raise living standards. If interest rates go up significantly businesses will be even less inclined to borrow to invest in productivity increases and technology.

The measures that could mitigate the shorter-term impact on living costs are fiscal ones, not monetary ones.

The thing is that if there was an election this summer the Tories would win, not because they've done a great job but because we're convinced that everyone else is worse. So they don't really need to try that hard at this point.

@GiraffesInScarfs do interest rates still impact sterling? I know they used to but not sure anymore.

Are the people advocating high interest rates looking to strengthen sterling as a cushion to the external price rises?

Beyond that I agree I don't see much point, in fact with high mortgage borrowing interest rates must surely drive up inflation.

I don't think it would drive house prices down that fast either as lenders have applied pretty strict tests of affordability.

@Whelmed

The thing is that if there was an election this summer the Tories would win, not because they've done a great job but because we're convinced that everyone else is worse. So they don't really need to try that hard at this point.

but because we're convinced that everyone else is worse. I'm not. But then I didn't vote for these cunts in the first place, along with a majority of those who bothered to vote, I voted for something else.

[quote ThinkAboutItTomorrow]@GiraffesInScarfs do interest rates still impact sterling? I know they used to but not sure anymore.

Are the people advocating high interest rates looking to strengthen sterling as a cushion to the external price rises?

Beyond that I agree I don't see much point, in fact with high mortgage borrowing interest rates must surely drive up inflation.

I don't think it would drive house prices down that fast either as lenders have applied pretty strict tests of affordability. [/quote]
Yes, they will always impact a currency. However, so many other things do so (and have done so for years now) that Sterling is worth a fraction of what it was a decade ago, and a significant rise in interest rates would likely have a negligible effect on import costs etc, given the other much more significant factors driving the prices increases in those commodities globally.

It would however, bring business investment pretty much to a halt, result in negative equity for many people, and mean that many individuals, companies and indeed the Government itself struggle to refinance their high levels of debt at affordable rates. Which would mean even more tax rises/ less public spending. And less spending by consumers meaning further job losses meaning higher welfare bills and less productivity, etc. That way lies a vicious downwards spiral.

We need improved productivity. That's thw only way to raise living standards. If interest rates go up significantly businesses will be even less inclined to borrow to invest in productivity increases and technology.

Productivity is shocking but how can the gov improve it?

imo wage stagnation has impacted productivity & QE has deflated wages

• What do you expect him to do. The UK has high levels of debt. There’s not a magic money tree. Printing more money = greater inflation (it’s already high).*

target wealth & not income

@fogglez

* What do you expect him to do. The UK has high levels of debt. There’s not a magic money tree. Printing more money = greater inflation (it’s already high).*

target wealth & not income

Plus: Do something sensible about tax avoidance. Take steps to recover those billions lost on furlough frauds. Stop throwing expensive government contracts at companies whose only qualification is that they're friendly with someone in the cabinet or that they make large donations to Tory funds.

The Treasury is coining it in duty on higher petrol prices. The 5p cut is a drop in the ocean in comparison, especially as prices are rising so quickly that we will be back to current levels within a couple of weeks.

It's ridiculous that they are punishing work by making those on PAYE pay 1.25% more NI whilst benefits are going up by 3%. Hardly an incentive to work. They should be encouraging work, not making workers pay more for the privilege!

@Ifeellikedancing

Sneakily reducing the chances of part time workers qualifying for full state pension. 🙄

Not true. People earning less than the threshold get credits.

Be realistic. Taxing wealth would hit key stakeholders and the rich would just leave. OK, their houses might stay and the companies that service the economy but apart from that, they would leave like Lloyd Webber after a Labour government. Cutting benefits and workers' wages in real terms and increasing taxes is the only way. No, it doesn't show where the real power lies, move along move along.

high tax & low growth & seeing your money actually not able to buy much is not good. Young people are going to emigrate & we need as many young people as possible!

@Zilla1

Be realistic. Taxing wealth would hit key stakeholders and the rich would just leave. OK, their houses might stay and the companies that service the economy but apart from that, they would leave like Lloyd Webber after a Labour government. Cutting benefits and workers' wages in real terms and increasing taxes is the only way. No, it doesn't show where the real power lies, move along move along.

So rich tax-dodgers would fuck off to some shithole? Not seeing the downside yet.

Be realistic. Taxing wealth would hit key stakeholders and the rich would just leave.

They won't go after the elite but I think higher CGTs will come sooner rather than later & more premiums on 2nd homes which some places are already doing. They are going to need to fund the NHS & social care with a ageing population & a shrinking income tax paying one so will have to get it from somewhere.

The new support is about £9.2 billion. We are all having to absorb £20 billion reduction in disposable income, that includes all the prices that are going up. food, fuel, Utilities. So not all taxation. According to The Times, more is available but banked in case of another 'rainy day' or for a give away closer to Election 2024.

This is probably the start of a long campaign.

On the plus side I don't need to pay ni, just hope they don't up the threshold for credits for state benefits!

@James44

The money has to come from somewhere to pay for Furlough and NHS overtime. Amongst other claims on our money. Neutral Question: Have there been proposals from other parties on a way forward? I don't recall seeing any real ideas.

Well the £72+ billion spent on HS2 would’ve been better spent on those things in my opinion.

@daimbarsatemydogsbone, Try harder. The cream of the crop drive everything and the world will literally end economically end. Reread Ayn Rand and recognise the contribution the elite make. We're in a global war for billionaires. And talent. Don't try and say if they wanted to live somewhere else then they'd be living there already as that's just wrong. The wealth won't trickle down without them. You'll probably feel the warm feeling of wealth running down your back like... The donations won't flow to the Conservative party either. And then where would we be? Apocalyptical.

Can you imagine what the world would be like if Lloyd Webber had emigrated. Ok the shows would have stayed in the West End provided they make a profit. But imagine the loss to the cultural life if he had left. And other like-minded. Inconceivable as Vizzini might repeat.