I am torn really on this.
I think its awful that you have to work with that and the kids have to be in.
However, given that there has more or less been a decision that kids under 12 aren't going to be vaccinated any time soon and covid isn't affecting them that much you've got something of a problem with a large unvaccinated population in close proximatity and Delta.
Once Delta gets into an unvaccinated population, then you can't stop it. Even covid zero NZ has pretty much come to this conclusion.
It means that until covid has passed through that population, its going to be a problem and be vulnerable to a mass outbreak.
The sibling rule, where there is one who has tested positive but other householders are expected to still attend school after a PCR is daft, because of the delay between exposure and testing positive. There is a gap where kids can be in school after a negative test but still be carrying it and will test positive later thus exposing others in the process.
HOWEVER given what policy currently is, I think I'd want it to spread through a school like wildfire right now for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, if you don't, you can be somewhat prolonging the problem given the nature of delta and the unvaccinated. If its a choice between them more or less all off at the same time, or mitigation and 10 off now, 10 off in Nov and 10 off in Dec I'm not sure thats any better from the persceptive of being a teacher - if anything its worse.
Plus I do think the immunity waning issue is going to start becoming a real issue in about 5 to 6 weeks time especially when people start to realise that if they are eligible for a booster they aren't going to get it when they are supposed to and when they need it.
In this respect, if I were a teacher eligible for a booster in the coming months I'd want all the kids having covid now whilst my vaccine immunity remained higher and the immunity of the kids parents and grandparents is as high as possible.
I think I would be a lot more concerned by covid cases at school in mid to late November and after that.
There's currently a big outbreak going on at DS's school and it really does worry me and I don't like it and don't want it. But at the same time, I'm hoping that its going to blow through here quickly and be more contained by the adult population having high immunity. When vaccine breakthrough gets higher, outbreaks are going to spill more into the wider community and thats where it bothers me.
Yes, its far from ideal, but I'm also trying to think pragmatically too. There is a limit to how long massive school outbreaks of this nature are going to continue. Once kids have some immunity, outbreaks shouldn't spread to quite the same degree in the same way.
I don't know that closing the schools solves the problem if you still have 2/3 or more of the school who have no immunity at all. You just set yourself up for multiple closures for the next time cos you still have 2/3 who haven't had it yet.
Give it six weeks, I may well be leaning heavily towards closures for the same reasons though, because of wider community spread and waning immunity in older age groups, but I'm not at this point yet.
I do think it wise to seriously consider who your kids are mixing with at this point outside their own age group - be aware as much as you can about who around you that you socialise with a lot - is due a booster and when...
We are starting to close in to 1000 hospital admissions a day, so I think we will see some reintroduction of restrictions soon anyway. There is an increasing nervousness coming in...
...the booster (and third normal jab) programmes being behind where they should be. I don't think the penny is dropping properly on this. The last estimate is that they won't get everyone due it, before the end of January. I think those at the back of the queue for their booster, may have some difficult decisions to make if they don't get one in time for Christmas.
December worries me particularly for this year because of the social expectation to mix indoors for various pre-christmas events even before you get to the big event itself.
I personally will be mask wearing in crowds (indoors and out), avoiding too much socialising indoors and staying away from people I know who could be at risk. I don't think this Christmas is necessarily the one to be making up for last year's 'Lost Christmas'.
I'm worried. But not necessarily by outbreaks in schools in October. They may, ironically, mean there is less of an issue later in the year.
(And no I'm not a let it rip person - I'm thinking pragmatically in terms of where we are in the outbreak and where immunity levels are at and where they are heading and what possible scenarios there are now for us. I think another big lockdown would be catastrophic in its own right at this stage. They really need to get the hell on with those vaccines and its not happening yet. The situation with boosters should have been forseen and we should be on the ball with rollout and I worry that we aren't).
I'm certainly not happy. Rock. Hard Place.
I am dreading late December / early January.