”I don't think travel will reach the same levels for a long time,”
(Warning long post).
It may look like it from the UK (and maybe NZ and Oz) ATM but I suspect it’ll get close to 2019/20 levels much quicker than some people think (and possibly quicker than some would like).
US domestic air travel has recovered strongly in the last few months and US international carriers have benefitted by the ability of US nationals to travel abroad to the likes of many European countries with fairly minimal restrictions…
EU carriers have seen an upturn, fueled in part by the EU vaccine pass allowing easy travel into/out of some EU nations..I live in the EU and our local airport’s traffic levels have recovered significantly in the last couple of months or so, plenty of flights now back on the arrival departure boards.
The exception though is flights to/from the UK which are still very thin on the ground..and there’s the problem for anybody working for a UK based airline.
The UK airlines are still majorly clobbered by the UK restrictions, which potentially effect demand on every flight into or out of their home base and also in the case of BA and Virgin the US entry restrictions.
The US restrictions are supposed to be reduced in a month or so and isn’t the UK system meant to be simplified shortly?
Given those events it looks like there’s going to be a month or more’s gap between furlough ending and the UK airlines being able to judge how well/how fast their business will recover. Do they keep people on, or layoff and potentially be disadvantaged by a lack of staff when the upturn arrives?
Having worked in the industry I have a fair degree of confidence there will be a recovery and I can also fully understand why airline staff on furlough won’t have handed in their notice so they can go off and find other lines of work..