'Lockdown 'til Spring'

[Caspah]

Why? The Goverment won't even tell us their definition of spring or summer - surely there's some scientific involvement in deciding when spring/summer occurs? This third lockdown is going to be the longest of the lot. In my area I'm hopefully going to get a vaccine soon, but what difference does it make to me if I can't go anywhere?

They can't give a definite answer because there isn't one. Everyone wants to come out of this but it has to be done in a carefully controlled way
I don't want to go through this again so I will sit it out and do what I have to to keep safe

The Goverment won't even tell us their definition of spring or summer

Hilarious.

I assume after Easter.
They can't give a specific date as hardly anyone has had their second vaccination yet. Neither do we know what mutations are going to pop up.

Personally I think by May, life will be back to normal. The speed of the vaccinations is going so well now and people are responding very well to it.

@User133847

I think things will start to ease once cases are below 10 thousand a day, hospitalisations stable and deaths in the low hundreds, at worst, with the vaccine roll out strong.

That'll likely to be some point in March and it'll mostly be schools to begin with. The government every step of the way have waited till it was untenable to lock down (which is why the two long lockdowns have had to last so long). They have their concerns over the variant which will keep them more cautious this time.

Cases will be sub 10k in a matter of weeks. And this is with the highest testing we’ve ever had.

Hospitalisations are falling at about 1k per day.

I’m not praising anyone here - we’ve partly achieved the original goal: herd immunity. Those most likely to get it (Critical workers, those not following rules etc) have had it. The main chains of transmission are gone.

People in hospital sorry* (not hospitalisations)

I’m not praising anyone here - we’ve partly achieved the original goal: herd immunity. Those most likely to get it (Critical workers, those not following rules etc) have had it. The main chains of transmission are gone.

Immunity doesn’t last. So there isn’t really any herd immunity.

I think anyone with an ounce of common sense could have assumed this lockdown would be in place until Easter. Cases and hospital admissions have been worse over Christmas than they were in March.

Surely it's better to have a proper lockdown than piss about with changing tiers, random 2 week school closures for positive cases and all the other half arsed measures we had in the autumn that led us to this point.

Do it properly until May and then we will hopefully have a better chance of opening more stuff up in the summer.

I'm saying this as someone who is at the brink with lockdown. But I would sooner be realistic than hope for false promises. I will put up with this shit until May if it means I don't do it again.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’m not praising anyone here - we’ve partly achieved the original goal: herd immunity. Those most likely to get it (Critical workers, those not following rules etc) have had it. The main chains of transmission are gone.

Immunity doesn’t last. So there isn’t really any herd immunity.

I’m not saying we have it in the traditional sense. But in our current situation (lockdown), those coming in frequent close contact have probably had it and have some level of immunity that will last for an undetermined length of time. Those of us unlikely to get it due to situational circumstances are still very likely to get it if lockdown was lifted tomorrow.

It is the only way I can explain the dramatic fall in cases. Perhaps vaccines have helped, but the majority of those people were probably shielded and not “spreaders”.

Do it properly until May and then we will hopefully have a better chance of opening more stuff up in the summer.

My view too.

But hasn’t the dramatic fall in cases come from lockdown? I mean l know it’s a crap lockdown but it’s having some effect.

Just under 4m people have had it in the U.K. I still don’t get how that is any sort of herd immunity considering the size of the population?

On the basis the Oxford vaccine isn't as effective against this new South African variant it's a "how long is a piece of string" situation.

If that variant becomes endemic we could end up in lockdown a long time

@Doomsdayiscoming
I’m not praising anyone here - we’ve partly achieved the original goal: herd immunity. Those most likely to get it (Critical workers, those not following rules etc) have had it.

I haven’t seen any evidence of this, do you have some?

@SunsetSenora

Pandemics usually take between 2 - 5 years to fully finish. We should have been told the truth at the beginning of this, so our expectations were realistic. The government are trying to appease people and not be the baddies giving rotten news.

That’s without a vaccine though.

@SunsetSenora

Pandemics usually take between 2 - 5 years to fully finish. We should have been told the truth at the beginning of this, so our expectations were realistic. The government are trying to appease people and not be the baddies giving rotten news.

Yup. People sadly think this will be over in a few months time and they'll be back to normal, big weddings, big parties, pubs open etc.

Likelihood is you might get some resemblance of normality over summer, like last year. Then schools will go back, cases will rise again. Schools won't be closed because parents don't want them to. Cases will keep rising over winter and by next January we will be in lockdown again. Maybe just a strict tier possibly but most likely lockdown. It will just be the same as last year. Would help if we closed the borders but the government won't so oh well.

Vaccines are getting done, but they are behind schedule already, as I thought they would be to be honest. Plus a lot of people won't get it because they are worried about it making them infertile, so they will keep spreading it and people will keep dying. The virus will also keep mutating. The vaccine will eventually need remade for those mutations if that's not the case already.

But we are just called doom mongers for telling the truth. I'd rather be realistic than be hoping for a miracle that won't happen.

I’ve just assumed this lockdown wouldn’t end before April at the earliest. Then it’ll be a very slow roll out of opening things up to see how it affects the numbers. Hopefully the government might actually get it right this time and not do another stupid scheme like eat out to help out so every bugger is out and about all at once!

@Bedtimebear40

Totally agree.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But hasn’t the dramatic fall in cases come from lockdown? I mean l know it’s a crap lockdown but it’s having some effect.

Just under 4m people have had it in the U.K. I still don’t get how that is any sort of herd immunity considering the size of the population?

Way more than 4m have had it. Likely 3 or 4x times that. And I think those people were the likely chains of transmission, mostly through no fault of their own.

Yeah it’s just my crazy theory, but we’ll see.

This lockdown is no way strong enough to exhibit such falls

I think most of 2021 will involve a lot of restrictions. Hoping 2022 is a bit more normal but who knows if the virus mutates to a point the vaccines don’t work

But those figures were just updated on Wikipeadia yesterday.

I’ll look elsewhere to see if they are wrong

I've decided Easter at the earliest. May more likely.

It is what it is.

No point bleating. You can't change it. Yes, it's shit, but what you gonna do?

One in 8 here.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-one-in-eight-had-coronavirus-in-england-by-december-last-year-survey-estimates-12192323

Still not herd immunity, approx 12-13% of people. I hardly know anyone who’s had it.

They are not deliberately being vague. They don't know when it will end, it depends on the figures. No one knows exactly how it's going to play out.