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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

Aibu to think kids will be back in primary school after half term?

153 replies

Malbals · 13/01/2021 19:09

What do you think? I’ve bee told by a teacher friend that primary aged children will be at school after February half term? I do hope so I feel so sorry for my children I just can’t give them what they need and feel like I am failing them
They are so sad and missing friends and routine

OP posts:
sparticuscaticus · 13/01/2021 20:10

@donquixotedelamancha

I think YANBU. By the end of Feb we'll probably be down around 15,000 new cases a day and a good chunk of vulnerable vaccinated.

Given the government's reluctance to close schools even when necessary, I think (at least) primaries will likely reopen then.

I'm not convinced reopening secondaries then is a good plan, but I think it may happen anyway.

A good chunk of the 9 groups of vulnerable adults won't have been vaccinated by then. I'm Group 4 - there are 5 after me- abs my predicted date for FIRST vaccination dose is mid February to mid March and it takes up to 3 weeks doe it to start working. 2nd dose of 12 weeks later is mid May 2021. Group 9 are predicted on vaccine calculator as June/ July 2021 onwards tor first dose. That's the vulnerable groups ...
tldr · 13/01/2021 20:14

I started off thinking Easter but I now think that’s probably not even likely.

donquixotedelamancha · 13/01/2021 20:23

More likely the night before half term ends

That does seem very likely.

donquixotedelamancha · 13/01/2021 20:25

A good chunk of the 9 groups of vulnerable adults won't have been vaccinated by then.

Indeed. I know we are nowhere near seeing an end to it by then.

My guess is based on the government's prior behaviour. They want schools open and have consistently only taken action when forced to by the spike in cases.

mineofuselessinformation · 13/01/2021 20:27

Teachers don't know anything different to what everyone else has been told, so what your friend said is her opinion only.

5zeds · 13/01/2021 20:32

About the same as last year. Vaccine will help with the NEXT wave not this one.

Enidblyton1 · 13/01/2021 20:39

YANBU
I’m certain they’ll be back after Feb half term. Covid rates are starting to fall now and we’ll return to tiers by end of Feb and primary schools will have to reopen to all. Many are operating with 30-40-50% pupils anyway at the moment. When rates fall, it will be impossible to justify keeping the remaining children at home any longer.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 13/01/2021 20:45

I think it will be after Easter. I really do not think September, we've been promised that schools will be the first thing to reopen (and the government are very keen for them to be open). So that means they'd have to keep everything else shut until September and that won't happen!

Delta1 · 13/01/2021 21:50

I think it will be within this term. Maybe not immediately after half term week but within a few weeks of it.

Thedarknightsaredrawingin · 14/01/2021 03:17

I don’t think they will be back before Easter.

Our health board have breached their Covid capacity and closed several wards due to outbreaks. The HB my sister works for has suspended all non urgent care for a minimum of four weeks.

The Scottish government declared 45million for home learning technology yesterday. Seems a foolish investment if they have confidence in schools retiring within a short timeframe.

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 14/01/2021 07:31

@WanderingMilly

I sincerely hope not......only because I think if they are, we will start to undo all the good that's been done while we've suffered over these next few weeks, let's not get into Lockdown No. 4 situation. Instead, let's get lots of the population vaccinated before we start easing things....
This ^
BigGreen · 14/01/2021 07:43

In my part of London it's estimated nearly half of people have had the virus. Surely by mid February we'll be close to herd immunity?

Scarlettpixie · 14/01/2021 07:46

Given that there was the highest number of daily deaths since the start of the pandemic yesterday, I will be surprised if schools reopen before Easter. I think we have tougher restrictions to come.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 14/01/2021 07:50

@Scarlettpixie

Given that there was the highest number of daily deaths since the start of the pandemic yesterday, I will be surprised if schools reopen before Easter. I think we have tougher restrictions to come.
Those were from people infected roughly 3 weeks ago though, before schools shut and when everyone was mixing over Christmas. So we may start to see a drop off very soon (hopefully!)
WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants · 14/01/2021 07:52

@Lifeinaonesie

I'd prefer a lockdown 4 than this one continuing. Children need to see friends, it's better they see people for a few weeks and then out again for a few than have months and months in a row without contact with people their own age.
Right. So you think your children seeing friends is more important that saving lives, the mental health of hospital staff & people suffering g long term health conditions.

Seriously?

WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants · 14/01/2021 08:05

@Scarlettpixie

Given that there was the highest number of daily deaths since the start of the pandemic yesterday, I will be surprised if schools reopen before Easter. I think we have tougher restrictions to come.
The better measure is hospital admissions. It's not perfect as the people who remain at home can still end up with lifetime health issues.

However, hospitals being overwhelmed is a serious issue for everyone not just COVID cases.

Schools are hugely spreading this virus, schools remsing 'closed' is a necessity until at the very least, the top 4 groups have been vaccinated , personally I'd prefer them to stay 'closed' until the top 6 groups are vaccinated (at least).

The damage done fully opening up schools in Sept was warned about, but they didn't listen & look at how the rate of cases shot up. It would be giid if they 'learnt the lesson' 🙇🏻‍♀️

We have the vaccines, we just need a bit of patience and to remember the more CV that's circulating not only casuals more cases, more deaths more people not gettingbNHS treatment for other things, but it gives the virus the opportunity to mutate and it may mutate into something the vaccines can't deal with then we are screwed, because even if it's something the can 'fix' in the scribe it'll take months to get to the point of being injected into people AND those vaccinated will need 'updates'

No ones saying it's ideal or easy, but it is necessary.

Mumofsend · 14/01/2021 08:14

I think KS1 will be sometime between half term and Easter, KS2 possibly getting a token week before Easter. All in for primary after easter

AngelicInnocent · 14/01/2021 08:55

I think year 6 will go back after the half term and in secondaries years 11 and 13 will. The rest, probably after Easter.

TheHoneyBadger · 14/01/2021 09:01

I think people forget that it's going to take a long time for the damage from keeping schools fully open too long passes.

It's not just counting a couple of weeks forward from when schools closed. Schools will have seeded chains of infection in communities that keep on fanning out for some time with presymptomatic spread meaning delayed reactions and continued spread. It's not just who caught it directly from a child but that the parent of that child seeded infection into their work place then their colleague to... and onwards. Or far worse the parent who works in a care home etc.

A school issue quickly becomes a widespread issue because of the number of households mixing and the number of workplaces reached etc. It's going to take time for the dominoes to stop falling and with areas with significant numbers children still in schools who have been told they don't have to employ sd then cases will still be coming into the school, shared around and taken out of schools albeit at a slower rate.

I'd hope we'd be back by Easter

Delta1 · 14/01/2021 10:56

@Mumofsend

I think KS1 will be sometime between half term and Easter, KS2 possibly getting a token week before Easter. All in for primary after easter
Yeah I'm thinking this is the most likely thing too. I just dread to think the damage this is causing some children. Encouraging news today though that those who've had the virus have more or less the same level of protection as those who've been vaccinated. That's hugely encouraging.
howshouldibehave · 14/01/2021 12:27

I'm sure however they decide to reopen schools, it'll piss large numbers of people off. If they open to eg just Reception, Year 3, Year 6, Year 11 and Year 13, you'll annoy parents who have children in Year 1+2. If you just do KS1, those who aren't fussed about having their little ones back, but are desperate for their Y4-6 to be in the classroom.

Rotas are a very sensible suggestion, but not possible now because too many people say they need 'essential worker' provision full time.

HearMeSnore · 14/01/2021 12:54

We're supposed to start seeing the effect of the lockdown after this weekend. A noticeable effect of the vaccinations will take somewhat longer, but it's reasonable to expect (hope!) that we'll be over the peak by half term.
Whether that translates into being able to open schools is another matter, and as much as I'd like to think it could happen, teachers don't have any more idea of the likelihood than the rest of us do.

TheHoneyBadger · 14/01/2021 13:29

I don't think we'll be securely enough over the peak to start opening things up though HearMe - if they do that before numbers have dropped enough it's just rinse and repeat on the same old mistakes. I also think they'll have to acknowledge that the nhs (eg, it's workers and other resources) will be drained. They can't do the turn the tap back on and keep taking it up to the max. Staff can't keep going at that level forever.

HearMeSnore · 14/01/2021 23:32

Amen to that. NHS staff here and whatever it takes to make this dickhead of a virus sod off is what I'm in favour of.
Unfortunately the only thing that will see it off is widespread immunity so until we've seen the effect of the immunisation effort, nobody can say when it'll be ok to open the schools again. Nobody would be happier than me to see them open after half term, but only if the vaccine is making a significant impact. As yet it's way too soon to speculate.

AndcalloffChristmas · 14/01/2021 23:35

I actually think they may well be.

Or you could find they are only open to a few year groups - perhaps just the infants? Or maybe Year 6?