Here’s a question from a work colleague. Her friend (different company) has been asked to travel for work. Could be classed as essential travel, so all legal and legit. It would involve driving to the airport and getting on a nine hour flight with Virgin (all passengers PCR tested, cabin air recycled every 2-3 minutes), all passengers masked. Business class, so fewer surrounding passengers. Two weeks immediate isolation on arrival, so no chance of passing it on at the other end. The destination has basically no Covid at all. She would be staying there for a month.
She has refused, and she is outraged that the company has asked her to travel, saying it is too high risk. She is saying that she is too worried of catching it and spreading it to go.
I think she hasn’t done her calculations correctly. She lives in London, is part of a support bubble with two people (who have also met other people and been out shopping etc as per the legal guidelines) and has met friends outside for walks (all within the law of course). Basically she has been and will continue to interact with people on a daily basis who have a 1 in 20 chance of being infected. For 30 days, when 29 of those could be zero risk.
What I have issue with is her estimation of risk. Surely over a month in London there is statistically a much greater chance of catching the virus, vs 11 hours of travel (two in the airport and 9 surrounded by PCR negative passengers wearing masks in the plane.) She’s vastly more likely to catch it and pass it on in a London supermarket. AIBU in thinking her estimation of risk is just factually incorrect, and she would be at much lower risk over time of catching and spreading it if she went?