AIBU to think that every winter from now on there will be a lockdown?

[HopelessBlue192]

Once we've vaccinated against Covid enough, then Flu will be back (with social distancing relaxed). With Flu overwhelming the NHS every winter before this year when it's been Covid, I'm really worried that every November to March, we are going to be locked down again.

We've shown as a country (UK) that we're willing to accept lockdowns, strict or not, and frequently now, so what's to stop them doing it again? When they think that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed and they can argue that it's an emergency and in our interests / safety? And who would stop them if it isn't?

@JovialNickname

This will be my last post on this thread because I don't want to derail the OP. However for everybody saying that the idea of regular winter lockdowns are ludicrous, think of the difference in your mindset towards having all your civil liberties removed, between now and this same time last year. Is it really so incredible to think we could have taken a further step in the same direction by winter 2021? And yes of course you can think "yes, but we're accepting all these restrictions because now there's a good reason" but a good reason can always be found.

Me: Happy New Year!

January 2020 you: Happy New Year to you too. I have a feeling that 2020 is going to be great!

Me: Actually, no it won't be. In fact, by this time next year, you will have given up all of your civil liberties and freedoms. You won't be allowed to meet with even close friends and family. All but essential shops will close. Even work, if at all possible, should be carried out from home. And you will be just fine with this.

2020 you: Like fuck will that happen!

Me: It will, because there's a virus that causes a global pandemic.

2020 you: Oh well, in that case I understand. A virus that indiscriminately wipes out, say, 50% of the population? Then we certainly need the UK, and the world, to survive by any means possible.

Me: Oh no, you've misunderstood. This virus is asymptomatic, or manifests as a cold, in the vast majority of cases. The survival rate exceeds 99%. The average age of virus victims is higher than the average life expectancy.

2020 you: WTAF.

@JovialNickname

Except a regular lockdown would trash the economy and education and we couldn’t afford to pay for it.

Oh, and there’s also the fact there would be no reason to do it, because as I am sure you know, the picture you have painted is not a balanced one.

Bitch about the NHS being underfunded, or our Government being slow and indecisive, or something rational like that.

I can see why you're asking as it used to be ok not to, even though flu viruses killed thousands of people but was, seemingly, an accepted risk.

Except a regular lockdown would trash the economy and education and we couldn’t afford to pay for it.

What we've done so far has trashed the economy and education and we can't afford to pay for it. A lot of people just haven't realised that yet.

The government clearly has no great appetite for lockdowns now, so I find the idea they'll be jumping at the chance to impose them for colds and flu post-Covid far-fetched to say the least.

I'm one of the few on here that is also keen to see the back of masks. I see them as an inconvenience disproportionate to the risk posed by not wearing them in the during winter / in shops / on public transport scenarios. As for wearing when you actually have a cold... maybe ok for a bit of a sniffle, but if your colds manifest as a streaming nose requiring tissues to be applied every other second it's a no for me. Would rather see less presenteeism and voluntary masks for those that want them to tackle the more minor seasonal illnesses.

The idea that everyone else is a mortal danger requiring visible protective measures is not something I want to see enduring after this pandemic.

So, no, that’s not going to happen.

But also - do have a think, OP, about how hard some people have found this year and how EXTRA burdensome this particular NYE feels for many, over and above holidays being difficult in general for many. Is this really the sort of thread that you think it’s compulsory to create at such a time? Today? Really?

Ludicrous hyperbole. Give your head a wobble.

I hope not, but I know some people are loving the control of these lockdowns, so I expect that there will be calls for lockdowns for flu in the future, let's hope people resist.

To me it's obvious. Lockdowns are the most crazy expensive plan ever when you look at the lost tax revenue. We need a medium term plan to increase capacity in the NHS.

FWIW I agree with you OP. I really think these lockdowns, tiers, restrictions etc are here for the long haul.

Also agree with PPs that these threads are massively unhelpful and people should think about who may be reading them before posting.

I'm known for being a worrier and pessimist irl, but some of the things that are posted on here are ridiculous. If genuine, they have to be down either to not being familiar with history or uncontrolled anxiety.

Following that logic would be like saying people put up with rationing in the war so it could be imposed at any time?
I'd like some social distancing to stay to minimise infections like flu, and hopefully things like handwashing and cleaning trollies etc. But lockdown, nope, I dont think that will stay.

Jesus what a depressing op! Of course we bloody won’t have an annual lockdown you are being morbid.

Talk about scaremongering and bringing people down.

Yeah you are being unreasonable.

Why on earth is it that people think that the government want to lock us down and trash the economy ?

It's possible that if another new deadly virus comes around then it may happen again but not for Covid once people are vaccinated and not randomly because they want to take our freedoms away.

OP you do know that these weren’t the first lockdowns in this country, right?

For example when Shakespeare was writing, theatres were shut 60% of the time for plague lockdowns.

Maybe read some history and calm down.

So Whitty just said in the press conference -
"Some curbs may be needed next winter" citing the number of people who die each year from flu.
I'm not sure how much more of this I can take. Please tell me this isn't going to happen? Please tell me IABU

@HopelessBlue192

So Whitty just said in the press conference - "Some curbs may be needed next winter" citing the number of people who die each year from flu. I'm not sure how much more of this I can take. Please tell me this isn't going to happen? Please tell me IABU

You clearly are having issues with anxiety and would suggest you seek help.

He said on average there is 7000 deaths a year from flu and can be 20,000 in a bad year.

I'd suggest you don't know this because it's what he called socially accepted deaths as everyone has to die.

We do usually hear about a bad year (15+k deaths)

He just pointed out we will likely still see covid deaths in winter but it will be like flu - a socially accepted number and also is very likely to be the very old and frail.

Not unless another deadly virus becomes pandemic or we fail to get any control over Covid (which isn't going to happen).

Flu is not cause for a lockdown- the NHS is stretched by it but it is less deadly and the complications, which can be fatal are more treatable (e.g. bacteria pneumonia after the flu virus is more treatable than Covid viral pneumonia).

• bacterial (typo)

I dont think people wod tolerate it. We are all expecting the vaccine to solve the problem, if they then turn round and say that wasnt enough and we all need to carry on with lockdowns then I dont think it will be acceptable.

@HopelessBlue192

So Whitty just said in the press conference - "Some curbs may be needed next winter" citing the number of people who die each year from flu. I'm not sure how much more of this I can take. Please tell me this isn't going to happen? Please tell me IABU

Whitty’s middle name is pessimist. It’s the most ludicrous idea.

@LizDiz

I dont think people wod tolerate it. We are all expecting the vaccine to solve the problem, if they then turn round and say that wasnt enough and we all need to carry on with lockdowns then I dont think it will be acceptable.

And? What will we do? What can we do?

Put up and shut up.

Aren't you a delight. This is a forum, its where people share their views. Sometimes those views wont be the same as your own. You just have to 'put up and shut up- about it because that's the way it works.

I dont think people will tolerate with long term lockdowns that cause businesses to close and stop children going to a school for a virus which predominantly kills the old. People may wear masks or make small changes like keeping distance.

No. There's a chance we might have another lockdown in winter 2021/2022 depending on how badly the government mess up the vaccine rollout.

But historically pandemics last on average 2-3 years, and life recovers as though nothing happened. The Spanish Flu was within the lifetimes of some of our grandparents and prior to Covid was almost entirely forgotten about.

In the future Covid will be like the flu. It's possible that ederly and vulnerable people will have to get their annual Covid jab, and perhaps a tiny number of people who are extremely vulnerable but who can't be vaccinated (people who have had transplants, for example) might have to change their working or social habits, but nothing more than that.

This virus is asymptomatic, or manifests as a cold, in the vast majority of cases. The survival rate exceeds 99%. The average age of virus victims is higher than the average life expectancy.

Oh what complete bollocks. Tell that to the parents of all the children who have died from COVID.

The death rate is closer to 2%, which doesn't sound like much but when you consider the UK population, 2% or even 1% is a staggering number.

And that's only people who actually died. What about the thousands who have become permanently disabled, suffered heart damage, permanent lung damage, life-changing cognitive disfunction?

What about the tens of thousands of people currently suffering from Long Covid, a condition estimated to affect 1 in 20 people who contract the virus?

What about the potential hundreds of thousands of people who could have died from other illnesses or injuries though being unable to access emergency or routine medical care if the NHS had been overwhelmed?