AIBU to think that every winter from now on there will be a lockdown?

[HopelessBlue192]

Once we've vaccinated against Covid enough, then Flu will be back (with social distancing relaxed). With Flu overwhelming the NHS every winter before this year when it's been Covid, I'm really worried that every November to March, we are going to be locked down again.

We've shown as a country (UK) that we're willing to accept lockdowns, strict or not, and frequently now, so what's to stop them doing it again? When they think that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed and they can argue that it's an emergency and in our interests / safety? And who would stop them if it isn't?

No way

@shouldistop

I think the extra hygiene measures are here to stay and mask wearing during flu season but there won't be lockdowns every year

Extra hygiene measures yes (although preferably not as much hand sanitiser use) but I don't think mask wearing will be here to stay for the majority.

We've shown as a country (UK) that we're willing to accept lockdowns, strict or not, and frequently now, so what's to stop them doing it again? When they think that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed and they can argue that it's an emergency and in our interests / safety? And who would stop them if it isn't?

I think the best way to think about it is to ask why would the government want to lock us down and ruin the economy if it wasn't absolutely necessary? Particularly with Tory governments where economy is usually their number one agenda.

@InglouriousBasterd

Nah, there wouldn’t be the appetite for it. However I did realise today that if I had a stinking cold and needed to go out, I’d happily wear a mask now to keep my germs to myself - it wouldn’t have crossed my mind a year ago.

Have you tried wearing a mask with a heavy cold? I had to recently and it was so horrible to wear a mask with a streaming nose and sore throat that I really doubt people will be doing it voluntarily in large numbers.

Would it not be a better idea to campaign hard for better funding and preparedness for the NHS, so that we are ready for future emergencies?

@CousinLucy

I think we should all take a step back at times and not over think. As far as I'm aware (and I haven't researched) something similar to the Spanish Flu epidemic has only happened now, 100 years later. Yes there was Asian flu in the 1960s or whenever, but it didn't have this impact.

I think extra hygiene is here to stay. That's a good thing. I shudder to think of the germs on cafe tables, door handles, in schools and offices. But no, I think I disagree. I don't think lockdown will happen more frequently after Covid.

There were an estimated 80,000 excess deaths from Asian flu in the UK, at least. So yes, it did have the same sort of impact. There were 50,000 excess deaths two years ago due to flu - a vaccine failure, as they predicted the wrong dominant virus - and at that time the NHS was close to overwhelmed and other treatments were cancelled for months. Everyone seems to forget that we were here two years ago. And then there was Swine flu. We've been here many times. We will be again. It isn't about viruses. It is about how we manage things. We knew in 2016 that we were unprepared for a pandemic because a parliamentary committee report said so - and was ignored. We knew our health service was collapsing under the demands upon it and cuts - that was ignored too. We knew our social care system was in disarray - but we carried on cutting it. We knew that poverty and disadvantage and poor health were endemic and growing - and did nothing about that either. The direction of travel that our society is going in, it won't take another pandemic to bring us to our knees. We have proven we can do it all on our own.

No but hopefully better hygiene will continue and there’ll be less of the take a lemsip and battle into work attitude.

Op, I think you’re struggling with this as many people are, so you’re catastrophisising. Of course it’s not reasonable to think this, but you’re not the only person panicking 💐

Careful OP, the idea of regular lockdowns will get some MNers all overexcited.

I was stood outside the drs this morning waiting for dd to come out

People being questioned outside re covid, in side to have a temperature check with their mask on and then they were allowed ‘in’

And i did think that dr surgeries may well want to keep patients wearing masks...at least in the waiting room

But i think the OP is being unreasonable

Does OP expect democracy to be suspended, too?
I'm not convinced any party could stay in govt with these policies outside of the pandemic situation.

Maybe flu vaccination should be more strongly encouraged, maybe with some kind of incentive like free vitamins or something.

I do wonder whether employers might expect people who can to work from home rather than take an actual sick day to recover properly.

Excellent post, @Moondust001

OP, give it a rest. I'd say you need to get out more, but, well, you know 😏

I don’t think full lockdowns every year are going to happen.

It is possible that we will adopt some ‘winter measures’ for flu season so that things like 2m social distancing, mask wearing etc in shops and public transport might become commonplace in winter but I don’t believe people will be willing to isolate from their families and have shops, pubs, restaurants etc closed every winter. The only reason people are putting up with it now is because we are being told doing so will mean things will be quicker to go back to ‘normal’ and even during the pandemic I know many occasions of people breaking the rules. I imagine the lockdown rule breaking would be even worse if there wasn’t even a pandemic. And as others have said it would be devastating to businesses and the economy to shut dune businesses for months every year, the government have been hesitant enough about going into full lockdowns even with the pandemic so when things are back to ‘normal’ winter lockdowns for flu just don’t seem very likely.

I am catastrophising I absolutely know that, but I've not been given any reason not to I don't think. Like a poster said upthread, we've had a flu bout just 2 years ago that caused a huge number of excess deaths. If they thought that next time that was on the horizon, we could lockdown to avoid it, what's to stop them?

I've watched the business I run take hit after hit after hit this year with no real help from the gov't so forgive me if I don't believe that they won't do it again purely because of the economy.

I think the way I'm feeling is because of the rollercoaster - bad news always follows anything good. The moment we get positive news about a second vaccine, the Deputy CMO says that we won't be able to release social distancing measures once the vulnerable are vaccinated because we don't know if it stops transmission.

And please don't tell me to avoid the news - when your business is constantly affected by the updates you have to keep up to date with what's going on. I only look at the bare minimum these days.

I really doubt it though there might be less presenteeism and less tolerance for people who struggle into work when ill spreading germs everywhere.

Hahahahah yeah and the government will happily just pay furlough every winter to everyone out of work and let the economy suffer further each winter?? - that would be a wise move wouldn’t it 😂😂

This is one of the more stupid reactions I’ve seen on here.

Flu doesn’t overwhelm the NHS every year. The government would not repeatedly trash the economy and rack up vast debts in order to combat an illness we’ve successfully managed without lockdowns for decades. You must be able to understand how unlikely that is?

I don’t believe the government will care enough about flu deaths to shut down the economy. The vast majority of flu deaths are among the elderly, in the governments eyes these are people who don’t work/ contribute to the economy and who instead use up large amounts of resources in terms of health and social care. I imagine to the government these deaths are welcomed. Certainly no Tory government is going to want to shut down the economy to save elderly people, certainly not without huge media coverage akin to that covid has gotten. Maybe the concepts of shielding/ self-isolating will become more commonplace and those vulnerable to flu who are unable to get a vaccine will be advised to stay at home but I just can’t see the government shutting down schools and businesses etc because of the normal winter flu; the British public and media have been happy to accept the flu deaths in past years and flu already has a vaccine so I really don’t think we’re going to get the public/ media putting pressure on the government to implement forced lockdowns in order to try and minimise deaths and it won’t be in the government’s economic interests to lockdown if it can avoid it

We've shown as a country (UK) that we're willing to accept lockdowns...

Clearly we haven't.

No, they aren't going to trash the economy every winter just because they can. We've got decent flu vaccines and have managed without lockdowns previously

I think you are being a bit hysterical

I actually think YANBU to wonder this, given that someone speaking on behalf of the WHO said only the day before yesterday that they're waiting for "the big one" by which they meant an outbreak of something deadlier (obviously great that the WHO apparently has no understanding of the fact we supposedly locked down for CV for a very specific reason, i.e. it was a novel virus that no one had immunity to and it was most contagious before symptoms appeared). I think now people have had to follow these restrictions, and have accepted them, they will be used again for worse reasons.

You are obviously anxious OP and I can understand why anxieties are high it has been a rough year and no one expected this.

I do not think for one minute lockdowns will become the norm; but I very much agree that better hand and respiratory hygiene will be here to stay and that is a very good thing.

To be fair, there has been a good deal of reluctance to go back into lockdown even in the height of a pandemic, I cannot see the government or the public adhering to annual ones.

As crap as it has been, this will pass and things will slowly return to almost normal, but I think people will remain cautious with hand hygiene and maybe masks for quite some time.

No way

For starters the money will eventually run out