London exodus??

[Newdonewhugh]

Has anyone else noticed that their Town has a lot of people moving from London?
Are local Town and village FB pages literally have 2/3/4 people a day joining and posting with the likes of “I’m moving to ..... from London next week, can anyone help me with X,Y,Z”
My Sister and others said they’ve noticed it too.
We live in South Coast.
I just wonder what this New World will look like. What will happen to London?

Who is buying the houses of all the Londoners packing up and leaving ?
There must be money somewhere, l am scratching my head.

@hopingforonlychild I'm not sure Manchester would be a huge change. It's quieter than London but it is still a city with lots of going on. House prices can be expensive in certain areas where people tend to relocate to, nowhere near some London prices but not as cheap as the rest of Manchester. South Manchester got a lot more expensive when the BBC relocated some of their services here as it was convenient to transport links.

South Manchester, especially Didsbury, Chorlton and the Heatons and north Cheshire is very expensive compared to the rest of Manchester and further into south Cheshire. Prestwich/Whitefield is the main Jewish area (I'm guessing if you would like to stay in north London to be close to a similar area, you would want to live around there?), it's lovely and Heaton Park is great. It is also expensive. Not as much as south Manchester but not far off. Whitefield has Slattery's which is like the world of cake, it's fab.

I would stay in London if you are happy there.

@RubyViolet

Who is buying the houses of all the Londoners packing up and leaving ? There must be money somewhere, l am scratching my head.

Investors and secondary homers buying bolt holes.

Thinking about it, it's a shame it's not the local councils buying those flats. London has such an acute homelessness crisis - lots of rough sleepers and thousands of families living in rooms.

@NorthOfTheBorders I am happy in London. I need a place with public transport so I think a city would be best. Edinburgh is very faraway and I haven't heard good things about scottish education (also I don't really like the SNP though they are better than tories). I didn't like birmingham when I visited. My DH's sister lives in manchester and doesn't drive, so I figured it can't be that bad from a public transport POV. I don't really like the idea of suburban living and being forced to get everywhere with a car and for it to be a necessity. I grew up in a country where there is actually a quota for private cars and you have to buy the right to own a car ( about $30k-50K). It might seem farfetched but the chancellor is mulling the idea of charging all english motorists a tax per mile (www.yourmoney.com/insurance/drivers-could-be-charged-a-per-mile-car-tax/#:~:text=The%20chancellor%2C%20Rishi%20Sunak%2C%20is,40bn%20of%20annual%20tax%20revenue.) so I do think that in the future, cars would be heavily taxed and I am not overenthusiatic to 'save money' by moving to the sticks and then being charged a tax for the rest of my life (in addition to the rail fares). Meanwhile, in the cities, driverless Ubers are not that far in the future, which may render cars less necessary.

My DH's sister moved to Manchester as she did her undergrad and postgrad there and is familiar with the city. She actually does live in prestwich! There is a jewish community there including a reform synagogue which I need. I know didsbury and altrincham are expensive (I would choose those areas) but they are no where as expensive as north london!

Investors and secondary homers buying bolt holes.

There’s already been a virtually identical post upthread. I’ll ask again - what are these people investing for? If London life as we know it is over, why are people investing money there? They must believe there’s either demand for rental properties short-term or resale value long-term.

Similarly, what is the bolt hole for? Traditionally people bought bolt hole properties in London so that they could have a larger family home elsewhere and stay in the capital when necessary. If we’re all going to be working from home forever, these bolt holes won’t be necessary. The argument doesn’t add up.

StillCoughing, exactly. For every family selling up another family or investor moves in. The people moving out have to sell up to get out. The influx out wouldn’t be possible unless there were buyers for the London properties in the chain.
I don’t see any empty houses or flats where l live in zone 2. We are all still here ...unless you count the naughty ones sneaking out to their 2nd homes for the weekend.

2 of my neighbours have left London & are just rented out their properties as they couldn't sell them for what they wanted.

I've also seen a lot flats for sale & rent in my local area.

Saw this in the FT

In London, the average price of a flat went up by more than any other property type between 2011 and 2019. But over the past 12 months this has been reversed and flats have been the weakest performers.

This year is set to be the first time in more than a decade when flats make up fewer than half of all property sales in the capital, say estate agents Hamptons International. It adds that London flats are taking 70 days to sell on average, whereas houses are taking just 29 days. And that’s if they sell.

Separate analysis by PropCast, which maps the housing market, reveals that only 27 per cent of all flats listed for sale are finding buyers, compared with 44 per cent of houses.

hopingforonlychild

The motorist already pays a per mile tax
every time they fill up at the pumps. This potential new tax isn’t about adding to the tax already paid but how the government is going to replace the tax they receive on the petrol/diesel sold and as people go over to electric cars and the annual tax disc becomes obsolete where will this shortfall in revenue come from.
It isn’t some extra new tax to be fearful of.

bob I saw that FT article too and it accords with my own anecdotal evidence - houses a bit further out - popular, flats less so.

It will come and go however over the years depending on jobs etc so I don't think anyone needs to worry and those considering moving to the country should rent first to check they do really like it even when it is really muddy cold and you cannot buy what you want or in some places not have wifi (my son's friend stayed here - suburban London - for about 4 weeks in the summer holidays last year because at his parents' home they had no wifi and they have to watch DVDs etc). I am not against the country and some of my nicest times have been trips to Northumberland (we were brought up in Newcastle) but the reality of living there is not always appreciate by those considering a move.

As for who is buying and renting and selling - it seems to be London flats being sold or not selling if the price is too high not houses. The few able to buy a London house tend to be better off people.

My daughter who is currently renting but also letting out her two flats (long story) - all in London - has found rents are heavily reduced in London. Her new tenant moved in as she wanted a bigger flat as she is being made to work from home. So in the latter case it was the size of the flat that mattered rather than avoiding a flat as that person wanted to stay in London where work is.

Old friend bought her house in Clapham in 1990 for tuppence ha’penny, so now when moving out to the country doesn’t need to sell. Same with a friend who has bought in Somerset; they have kept their zone 2 flat.

I think that people have seen that even if house prices take a dive once in a while, they always roar back so people are thinking long-term investment. I hear the point about if home-working is here to stay, what’s the point of London, but I think it’s too early to say that the capital is finished.

@IrmaFayLear but the thing is not everyone can or want to wfh. I have an office based job in Moorgate with a financial services provider. Our company is not doing wfh as its hard to train up junior staff if everyone does wfh. There is scope for flexible working but thats about it. Even if my company is the exception, we still don't know the long term implications of homeworking on City job prospects/employee retention/salaries. I have colleagues who don't own property but still don't like homeworking even if the potential implication is being able to buy cheaper property (because they are 2 separate issues even if we try to conflate them).

Also if companies manage to save money on rent but can't retain their employees, does that actually save money in the long run. When you wfh, there is less of that emotional aspect of being in a job- when you are in the office, your colleagues make a big difference as to whether you like the job so i have known people to stay in jobs that don't pay as well simply because they like their team and aren't sure they would get such a good team in the better paying job. If I wfh, I would just look at pay and job responsibilities, which means I am more likely to jump ship if i find something new.

Also if people are going to be paid less when living in a cheaper location a la facebook, would they still take the lower paying job just because they have lower housing costs. I don't know.

@IrmaFayLear

Old friend bought her house in Clapham in 1990 for tuppence ha’penny, so now when moving out to the country doesn’t need to sell. Same with a friend who has bought in Somerset; they have kept their zone 2 flat.

I think that people have seen that even if house prices take a dive once in a while, they always roar back so people are thinking long-term investment. I hear the point about if home-working is here to stay, what’s the point of London, but I think it’s too early to say that the capital is finished.

It seems that some firms may want to keep their London office(s) and close regional ones for those working from home.

Deloittes have just announced that they're closing 4 regional offices for staff to WFH, but no comment as to what they're doing about London!

Deloittes have just announced that they're closing 4 regional offices for staff to WFH, but no comment as to what they're doing about London!

And they’ve just negotiated new offices in Manchester.

I'm staying put in London and happy to be doing so! I've lived in several capital cities and this is my favourite by miles.

I know only one family who've moved out because of Covid and they are moaning Minnies, so I'm very happy for them to take their gripes to the coast with them.

We have fabulous schools, culture, friends and live in a beautiful area so I have no wish to go anywhere else.

@xenia there was a bottom bit of the article about the ladder no longer really existing (they had a similar article maybe last yr) which I do think has happened.

@boboroll I have read that article. I do see that most buyers of london flats can't jump from 400k flat to 800k house unless earnings massively increase. But waiting to buy 800k house as a ftb isn't a workable plan for most. Firstly, you have no stamp duty exemption as a buyer of an expensive house, which while small, for many london earners, is one of the few government perks that they would benefit from. Secondly, you would be saving for a long time for said 800k house and unless you are staying with family or in a £1k small rental, you could be spending a lot on rent that would make a difference to the deposit. If you have that level of earnings, you would probably not be happy to stay in the cheapest 1/2 bed flat you can find in London while saving for the 800k house. If you buy the flat, you can do mortgage overpayments that may cut down on the debt.

but i do think its worth waiting if you can as now the rental for smaller flats has gone down so much that its actually the same or more expensive to own. I am somewhat half hearted about the benefits of owning the flat i live in now, but have started doing overpayments so I can cut down on the mortgage and either be mortgage free/buy a bigger flat.

@StillCoughingandLaughing "Similarly, what is the bolt hole for? Traditionally people bought bolt hole properties in London so that they could have a larger family home elsewhere and stay in the capital when necessary. If we’re all going to be working from home forever, these bolt holes won’t be necessary. The argument doesn’t add up."

I do sort of get your point & I am not one who can afford 2 houses / house / flat etc. But some people do just like London and are prepared to live in a small house , because they like it. Or to keep a small bolt hole not because of work , just because they want to have a foothold in London - Yes very nice if you can afford it - but for those lucky people who can afford a bolthole in London I can see it. Not just for work just because for some people London is great ( and I know many people hate it ) It's preference is it not ?

Because I was on the ladder before prices went crazy & have had pay rises & it was before the stamp duty change we sold our flat & moved up the ladder. We couldn't do it now as the gap is too big.

Personally if I was a FTB now I just wouldn't go for a flat. People aren't getting on the ladder until much later & prices are so high plus stamp duty that it's hard to gain equity. I would buy a small house either on the outskirts (obviously under 800k, very doable in parts of zone 4 & 5) or maybe as a friend did buy in my hometown (if not from London) & rent in London so at least on the ladder. I just don't think expensive flats make sense now for many.

I know someone who is keeping a bolt hole in London (moved out to Sussex). They have enough equity to help with house move & crucially they haven't sold it in 1.5 yrs for what they want so would rather hang on & rent it out.

@BasiliskStare bolt hole does make sense. There will still be meetings in London. The train to norfolk/cornwall might get cancelled. I once went for a vacation to stratford upon avon and the train back tolondon got delayed for 2-3 hours. Imagine if you finish the meeting at 6 pm and the train is delayed for 3 hours, it could well be midnight by the time you trek home!

If I was living in such a place and could afford it, i would like a bolthole so i could just take the train home the next day.

@Thepilotlightsgoneout

I think it’s a risk making a massive life decision like that based on the pandemic. This time next year (presuming the vaccines work) we’ll all be back to long commutes, churning out carbon emissions from our excessive flights and paying through the nose for a bedsit in Hackney. Guarantee.

I highly doubt it. The vaccine is not a cure all. We will still social distance for years to come as the virus mutates and millions of people refuse the vaccine. Business is about money, they will not return to paying eye watering rents ever again

@boboroll I do agree with you but as i want to stay in z3, I was thinking maybe if i overpay and increase our income, i could afford a 3 bed flat in my area. Might be easier as i find the bigger and more expensive flats actually go up at a slower rate and are not as good for rental yield. tbh the small terraces are more expensive and not much bigger.

To qualify for stamp duty exemption for FTB, you need to find a house for under 500k which isn't that easy in London. Even in zone 5. Unless you are buying in Sutton, Harrow.

It’s not £500k, it’s £350k to quality for the FTB exemption.