AIBU to try to predict pound to euro exchange rate?

[Shuddawuddacudda]

I have no financial or economics background, but just as a matter of interest checked the exchange rate on Thursday I think and it was £0.90 per euro. It has since dropped following the strengthening of sterling as a result of the vaccine coming out.

I've a few hundred euros to exchange to sterling. I'm wondering whether the pound will weaken in Jan following our Brexit - so should I hold out until January or will it be just peanuts in the difference?

I'm sure there are lots of you on here who are fx traders and the like. Just wondering whether it's worth my while holding out to exchange?

Should add, that there is potential, corona permitting, for me to hold onto the euros until I travel to a Eurozone. Don't want to be losing out exchanging back and forth too much.

Oh wise women of MN - what to do!

Why not look at swap rates? They build in market expectations. Even FX traders can make wrong calls though.

@Iamthewombat

Why not look at swap rates? They build in market expectations. Even FX traders can make wrong calls though.

Well because A. I don't know what a swap rate is and B. I might aswell be looking into a bag of spanners trying to analyse financial data - just don't have that sort of brain!

In which case, in the nicest possible way, it’s a mistake to ask for advice from experts online. You’re not in a position to judge whether that advice is valid. Also, what’s to stop somebody posing as an FX trader and giving you advice they pulled out of their backside?

Well if their explanation is logical, I'll follow the advice. Seems nobody fucking knows either, so I'll just wait and see what the rate is in Jan I think.