If we could go back do you wish we went down the herd immunity route?

[Sakalibre]

Just curious

YABU - no
YANBU - yes

Gosh, people really need to keep themselves a bit more abreast with the latest news and/or history of this thing.

In Sweden, they did make a bid for achieving herd immunity. Ended up with the highest death rate per capita in Scandinavia and low levels of the population with antibodies, only around 15% with a level of immunity. So no herd immunity, as such.

And the Oxford vaccine (there are multiple vaccines being produced all over the world) is estimated to be available in the early months of 2021, so not "years and years away" at all.

They’re counting all deaths as COVID deaths.

Don't be silly, of course they aren't. Take a look at the ONS - it will show you what people have died from.

'majority of those died were over a certain age or had health conditions which msde them vulnerable'

That doesn't mean that they are unimportant, or even that they would all have died soon even without Covid.

About 40% of the population have some sort of chronic health condition; mostly controllable and compatible with normal or near-normal life expectancy if managed properly.

Over 15% of the population are over 70.

@Kinny14

They’re counting all deaths as COVID deaths. How many actually died with COVID. How many people die from cancer each year? Why is that not a pandemic? More deaths will arise with lock downs, open everything up and wake up

Because the WHO definition of a pandemic refers to new diseases, and cancer os not new.

Cancer is of course a massive killer, but come on - it’s not comparable in political approach, given that no-one ever caught cancer from sitting next to someone in school or being coughed on in the pub.

'How many people die from cancer each year? Why is that not a pandemic? '

And it's taken very seriously. Huge amounts of research go into it; a lot of progress has been made in treatment; and risk factors are taken seriously. There are many anti-smoking campaigns. And people are prepared to put up with considerable disruption to reduce environmental risk factors. Our workplace underwent enormous disruption a few years ago when we were suddenly relocated due to asbestos being discovered in the building,

And the reason why it's not called a pandemic is that it's not contagious.

wafflyversatile

Why couldn’t we have had it last year?

We know where dd who had it first picked it up (wedding with a lot of people who had flown in for the occasion from China)

Dd was working an event in February. All the guests and service staff came down with Covid except dd.

In Sweden, they did make a bid for achieving herd immunity. Ended up with the highest death rate per capita in Scandinavia and low levels of the population with antibodies, only around 15% with a level of immunity. So no herd immunity, as such

Antibodies disappear after a few months but from what I have read if people do get Covid a 2nd time it is a much lesser illness.
Some don’t know they have it.

So from my understanding whilst the antibodies might not be there the disease must be recognised by the body to some extent.

I'm sorry you're having such a tough time Oliver but knowing how high the death toll was with our late lockdown, I think it's the height of selfishness and stupidity to say you wish there had never been one at all. I'm not sure you'd have enjoyed life in NY either.

So from my understanding whilst the antibodies might not be there the disease must be recognised by the body to some extent.

That may be nice on an individual level, but to have achieved herd immunity they were hoping for more than 40% of the population to have developed protective antibodies.

There are experts who believe Sweden and New York achieved herd immunity.

There are experts who believe Climate change is a myth and Donald Trump is a Christian.

from my understanding whilst the antibodies might not be there the disease must be recognised by the body to some extent.

And that makes them non-infectious, does it? Is that the leap you're implying? I don't think you understand herd immunity at all.

Sorry I wrote a novel below; I have relatives in the US and this is a constant topic. Can you tell I’ve lost it?

Isn’t that essentially what the US is doing, in all the states that refuse to have mask mandates, social distancing mandates, or any kind of lockdown? Their cases are rising at a ridiculous rate for their populations. I just read about a wedding in Maine (which is a fairly rural state) that didn’t follow social distancing rules (they were allowed 50 guests but had 65, “checked temperatures” but didn’t wear any masks while they ate, drank, and danced indoors for hours) and now two areas that only had 150 cases in six months are up to 147 cases and 3 deaths caused by ONE WEDDING. The people who have died didn’t even go to the wedding.

And the US claims it isn’t just letting herd immunity run rampant. Imagine if everyone was. This disease spreads SO quickly, and it’s spread from asymptomatic carriers. It would be like the worst month we had here, when we lost 29,000 in April alone. Of those 29,000, 6% were between ages 40 and 60. ( www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales%2fjune2020/referencetables.xlsx )

SIX PERCENT. Imagine six percent of everyone you know between 40-60 dead. That includes a lot of MNers’ parents and a lot of MNers themselves, I would assume. It’s insane. The fact is that if you catch COVID, even without underlying conditions, you might die. And even if you have a mild case, you could face VERY serious complications, like brain disorders ( www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/warning-of-serious-brain-disorders-in-people-with-mild-covid-symptoms ) or heart damage ( www.livescience.com/covid-19-causes-heart-damage-healthy-people.html ). We have no idea yet if children will be facing these problems for life. And I hate to say it, but we really don’t know enough about the infant mortality rate. Here, mothers shielded infants and they were much less likely to catch it. In the US, there have been several infant COVID deaths. I think we should not assume infants are “immune” to serious complications like young children seem to be. Herd immunity would be a very fast and horrible way to find out.

This is why I really don’t know what to say when people say they “just can’t bear” the COVID rules for much longer. I understand those suffering from mental health issues really do need extra support; I feel terrible for them. For others, though, you really do have to think about which you can bear more easily: these “rules,” which are not forever, or possible life-long heart damage (my friend’s husband is facing it) or death (another friend is now a widow). So yes, it’s still vitally important that you do as much as you’re able to make sure you do not catch this disease at any age. Herd immunity is a dreadful plan.

Doesn’t make people non infectious but there seems to be a suggestion that we will have Covid for many years to come so are we forever supposed to go around in masks and be in this quasi lockdown forever more or do we have to say that most of us should get it and at one point it might just die out or become a lesser disease to those who have had it.

As I said, just because you are in the shielded group doesn’t necessarily mean that if you get it you are going to die.

If we carry on the lockdowns will end up being more fatal than the disease

Yes experts just recently warned about potential reinfection. Herd immunity can only come with the vaccine.

I'm confused about this. Surely a vaccine could only provide the same amount of protection as natural immunity from catching it.
Would everyone have to keep getting vaccinated every few months?

Erm no.
Top marks for the daftest question.

SIX PERCENT. Imagine six percent of everyone you know between 40-60 dead

But the figures you quoted were 6% of the 29000 deaths not 6% of the population

There are experts who believe Sweden and New York achieved herd immunity. I'm not saying I agree, just pointing it out that there are experts who believe this.

Even if they did, and they didn't, but even if they did, that's not what herd immunity is for. That's just 'everyone catches it'. Herd immunity is for this: Say 80% of people can be vaccinated. They aren't allergic to the vaccine or otherwise can't have it. Not immune compromised etc. They all get vaccinated. That means the 20% (these numbers are made up) that cannot be vaccinated (or won't in some cases) can happily wander about safe in the knowledge that herd immunity means they are unlikely to get it. The 80% can't pass it on. THIS IS IMPORTANT.

Everyone catching it means a random 80% of people have to catch it for 'herd immunity' to happen. They can all pass it on (unlike vaccinated people). So just like the common cold, which is often a coronavirus, people keep catching it from each other and the first people's immunity wears off before that stops happening. The vulnerable, which probably includes a lot of that 20% from before, catch it and die.

Herd immunity by catching a contagious disease isn't a thing. That's just normal disease transmission, which in this case kills lots of people.

notangelinajolie

Actually I thought that was what the vaccination was. It wasn’t just a one off injection. You would still have to have it maybe once or twice per year.

Yabu

@Oliversmumsarmy

notangelinajolie

Actually I thought that was what the vaccination was. It wasn’t just a one off injection. You would still have to have it maybe once or twice per year.

Was that poster replying to me? Talk about rude lol

As I said, just because you are in the shielded group doesn’t necessarily mean that if you get it you are going to die.

Your compassion has no bounds! I'll pass that onto my lungs.

Actually I thought that was what the vaccination was. It wasn’t just a one off injection. You would still have to have it maybe once or twice per year.

There are more than a hundred vaccines (the figure I've just read is 160), using different technologies and approaches, being developed all around the world; there will not only be a vaccine, but many, eventually. Also, from what I've read, there may possibly be a need for a booster shot some years down the line, not every few months!

There are more than a hundred vaccines (the figure I've just read is 160), using different technologies and approaches, being developed all around the world; there will not only be a vaccine, but many, eventually.

It's not true that just because they are trying to develop them that that means that they will manage to succeed.
I'm sure there will be some illnesses and diseases where they've already tried far more than 160 new treatments with different technologies and approaches and still haven't succeeded with those either.

No. Thats what they attempted to do in the U.S. at the start. We all know how that worked out.

It's not true that just because they are trying to develop them that that means that they will manage to succeed. I'm sure there will be some illnesses and diseases where they've already tried far more than 160 new treatments with different technologies and approaches and still haven't succeeded with those either.

I said there will be many vaccines, eventually. This was in response to the bleating that there will never be a vaccine, etc. People worldwide are working on this with ferocious dedication, and I find that uplifting.

But perhaps you prefer to deal with non-facts and vague impressions picked up from the ether, or Facebook and its ilk, that foster irrational theories and bolster a sense of hopelessness and foment complaint.

The other thing that people say about vaccines is "there are lots of diseases that there isn't a vaccine for". This is rubbish. For most problematic viruses, there's a vaccine, when it's worth the time and money. The two big exceptions are HIV and malaria. HIV because it is unique in how it hijacks the immune system. Malaria because it's not a virus - it's a parasite, more like an animal than a virus.

cbt944

I have more than one person in my family in the shielded group. Both caught Covid and both survived.
Dmil is 95 she has dementia and she is in a care home that had a death from Covid. She tested positive and got over it.
Dp has terminal cancer and diabetes he too had it and came through.

I don’t think I am wrong in saying that just because you are in a group that has a high death rate it doesn’t make it a death sentence.

I know more people who are suffering with the effects of lockdown on their MH and I worry about them not coming through this than I do who have died of Covid.

user1481840227

No that wasn’t directed at you.

Not sure what was rude about it