To think that the government did this on purpose

[therhubarbbrothers]

The A level results fiasco seemed to penalise bright children from disadvantaged schools. Aibu to think the government knew that this would happen but saw it as acceptable ?

@HipTightOnions

I meant that all are now receiving CAGs, not that CAGs are perfect. In that way, they are all receiving the same treatment (instead of some getting CAGs and some getting algorithm grades)

“Same treatment” is superficial and misleading though. There were broadly 2 approaches to creating CAGs. One approach produced CAGs that were much more similar to the algorithm grades, because that is what we were told to expect. These students are at a disadvantage now.

Most schools (ours included) created CAGs considering historic performances and very few didn't - nobody wanted to waste their time in submitting grades that would almost certainly be affected.

Unless schools have students missing first choice universities/apprenticeships due to CAGs, then I still trust those results are more reliable than the randomly allocated grades by the algorithm. If we hadn't had that level of control in the decision process, then there really would have been ridiculous grade inflation, so there was no benefit to anyone to ignore the need to moderate from within - or with other local centres (as many did) - in this way.

If your own centre's downgraded CAGS have STILL negatively affected your students, then possibly they are at a slight disadvantage compared to others, but if it has improved their situation from the algorithm results, then they are better off in practice. That would happen, I suppose, for example if you had an A student who you downgraded to A because historically no-one had achieved A before.

There's no perfect system (even the exams aren't perfect and have their own inbuilt 'unfairness'). If the analysis of results shows there is still a similar improvement for independent vs state when ALL are based on CAGs then we've gone from the frying pan into the fire, but at least the thousands downgraded (some from their CAG downgrades) are now much better off and no-one has any grade advantage due to the size of their class (that's also a simplistic statement, because there are many 'immeasurables' associated with having more teacher attention/smaller class size that can't be quantified in an exam).

Awarding CAGs is much fairer and more equitable than the algorithm and about the best case scenario in the circumstances of reacting to global pandemic. My own Y13 has at least one 'downgraded' CAG, but still has first choice uni so she's thinking of sitting the exam to try to get her grade up (to prove to herself she can 'do it'). Otherwise, the grades have done their job and she's going to accept that, although disappointing, it hasn't disadvantaged her. There will always be a few who will need to sit the exam to improve their grade to get into uni - perhaps they might have been better off if their CAG had been more generous - it's impossible to tell.

CAGs were never going to be calculated in exactly the same way in every centre but most made the effort (as yours and mine did) to put forward as realistic results as possible in light of knowing how the algorithm was supposed to operate. This is why it is infuriating that the government missed their chance to properly moderate CAGs across centres to try to identify and adjust CAGs at the minority of 'overenthusiastic' centres. Otherwise, why did we collect all that evidence for the calculations??

Hopefully the appeals process to challenge any suspected miscalculated CAGs will be clarified soon.

@User563420011

There isa quote that says something about never assume something is done through malice when it can be explained through plain stupidity.

Hanlons Razor.

However, it's part of a triptych of laws that really need to be combined to divine the truth. So you also have:

Occams Razor - [in the absence of further data] the least complicated solution is probably the correct one.

and;

Hitchens Razon - that which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

I thought the FFT fed into the algorithm though - which takes into account postcode and so socioeconomic status?

@DGRossetti

There is no perfect system, but at least with the U-turn, all students are receiving grades on the same basis

But not being accepted at universities that previously rejected them with lower grades. So it's hardly a good outcome is it ?

There's no arguing that the process this year has completely screwed over those missing their university offers as a result.

This situation means many will be able to reclaim their place, but it's been (and continues to be) a horribly stressful and process to get where they deserve to go.

Awarding CAGs to all is the least bad option after the flawed algorithm was used in the first place, not a huge 'win' and if I gave the impression otherwise, I apologise!!

I thought the FFT fed into the algorithm though

FFT is a private company hired by schools and nothing to do with the government, so I’d hope not!

@noblegiraffe

I thought the FFT fed into the algorithm though

FFT is a private company hired by schools and nothing to do with the government, so I’d hope not!

I must admit I haven't read the 300 odd page algorithm report so might be wrong! Just something someone I respect mentioned.

There's no arguing that the process this year has completely screwed over those missing their university offers as a result.

I'm glad DS is 24. This isn't a "one-year" thing. This is going to be visible from space for generations. Like people on an escalator being carried downwards into a pile up, this is just going to grow year on year.

nobody wanted to waste their time in submitting grades that would almost certainly be affected.
Yet that is precisely what happened.

randomly allocated grades
They were not allocated randomly.

Awarding CAGs is much fairer and more equitable than the algorithm
No, there are winners and losers with both approaches, as I have explained.

Hopefully the appeals process to challenge any suspected miscalculated CAGs
God help us.

Tbh Why I would like to assume that from a common sense position that FFTs where nowhere near, but common sense doesn’t seem to have afflicted the people involved with this at any stage so it’s also possible that they generated results influenced by pupils’ horoscopes for June.

Should probably have a look at the algorithm but I really can’t be arsed.

I can't be arsed either.

@Peregrina

Yes, from the people who might be called 'old fashioned Tories' - not the toadies and incompetents who Boris Johnson has surrounded himself with in Government

Disagree. I suspect you would regard Dominic Cummings as one of the "toadies and incompetents". He is one of those who has said that schools need to do a much better job for disadvantaged children.

Blaming Ofqual? Where did they spring from then? Who are they answerable to if not the Government initially?

Ofqual is classed as a non-ministerial government department which means it is not answerable to any minister. The idea is to protect them from political interference. This puts them on the same footing as bodies such as the Charity Commission, the CPS and the Supreme Court. If it is Ofqual that messed up, it would be wrong to hold Gavin Williamson responsible. They are not answerable to him. Neither he nor any other politician can tell them what to do. It is therefore completely different from the DfE messing up, which would be Williamson's responsibility.

OFQUAL and other such departments carry out functions of the Secretary of State. Not quite so detached as you imply

I read a tweet from a journo this morning that it has allowed more mediocre students from private schools places that would have gone to kids from state schools had teacher grades initially stood.

I can totally believe this shitshow did something like that on purpose. It's all good and well reversing the situation days later, as a lot of courses are full up now. So regardless of your new, improved results, there will still be some students who have lost out on their first choice.

I suspect you would regard Dominic Cummings as one of the "toadies and incompetents". He is one of those who has said that schools need to do a much better job for disadvantaged children.

Ironic, therefore, that Cummings’ interference in education via Gove that scrapped all modular exams and decoupled AS levels means that the exam cancellation this year was such a disaster.

OFQUAL and other such departments carry out functions of the Secretary of State. Not quite so detached as you imply

They are exactly as detached as I imply. They are a non-ministerial department. They are therefore headed by civil servants and are not answerable to politicians. The Secretary of State can direct them on which aspects of government policy they must take into account when making their decisions but that is it. They have the same level of independence from the government as the Supreme Court.

I think folks seem to forget that even with the alogorithim there were more passes than ever before. This is simoly a case of how over inflated the results were. Some folks are reacting like thousands and thousands of kids were given grades worse than they would have achieved, and everyone was downgraded, that’s not the case at all. Overall the grades given were still better and over inflated v previous years..

Yes some kids were penalised by it, but it was a tiny minority where the algorithm got it wrong as it attempted to standardise back to previous years

39.1% of students were downgraded, not a tiny minority. (Well over a hundred thousand)

The grades were NOT wrongly predicted. It's impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, to predict which students would have had a bad exam day. This accounts for the "over inflation" ( but is fundamentally a reflection of the level the students were working at). The result of going with CAGs will see a rise of about 12%.

The over inflation was at its worst in those subjects taught almost exclusively by private schools - Latin and Classics saw a rise in A*/As of over 10%. This contributes to the overall rise.

It could be argued that had exams gone ahead this year's cohort would have performed better in any case. Loads of teenagers confined to their houses during lockdown with nothing to distract them from their revision might well have outperformed previous yeats.

I suspect you would regard Dominic Cummings as one of the "toadies and incompetents

Then you suspect wrong. I was talking about elected Government ministers, not unelected SPADS.

However, if you want to convince me that he is concerned about the disadvantaged, then provide some decent evidence for it, not just his empty words. Otherwise I will believe his statements are as sincere as his driving to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight was sincere. When he was anyway supposedly ill and implied to be in London according to his wife's article.

Yes, and I think they are using the whole virus situation for their own benefit.

@Devlesko

Yes, and I think they are using the whole virus situation for their own benefit.

Seriously? What benefit would that be? They are getting slated right left and centre.

I think this government would be incapable of managing to successfully plot a conspiracy, let alone following it through to the desired result. They are a shower of useless, incompetent fxckwits who would have trouble organising a school lottery.

Just think - these over-privileged, pampered, shit-brained c*ckwombles are going to take us through Brexit. What could possibly go wrong?

39.1% of students were downgraded, not a tiny minority

And this is a perfect example of folks not understanding.

Yes, they were downgraded from the teacher assessments.

But that downgrading was still an increase on previous years performances. That’s the point. Even with the downgrading rhere was more passes than ever before. On a macro level students still benefited. It was simply a case of rhe government reducing just how over inflated,it was. The downgrading was from a postition of huge over inflation to one of minor over inflation.

The benefit is private enterprise. Mates with companies that can be thrown a few million to do some job when the public/national organisations are shown to be incompetent (aka thrown under the bus).
See PHE and the new "institute". See all those random companies given PPE contracts when their stated business was completely unrelated.

Better article are available - this was just a quick Google
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53361167

@HipTightOnions My school is in exactly the same situation as yours

The process of moderating the grades colleagues originally entered was horrendous, and colleagues have been left in tears after being told we could not possibly submit what they'd assessed at because we would be downgraded.

I have felt like an utter heel for trying to do the right thing, only for all those that didn't moderate for whatever reasons to be blithely rewarded with their inflated CAGs, purely down to social media pressure on the government.
Every exam series is standardised, so year on year changes are minute, even if the cohorts had sat exams, many would have achieved below a final prediction when the boards moderated the papers.

I feel terrible for our students. Our results are fine, and perfectly in line with expectations and their tracking. But it seems few other schools' are.

Dd has just told me one of her friends got As in just about every exam/test she sat and the same for homework

Her CAG is B

So i agree with others, lots of schools took The CAGs very seriously

The downgrading was from a postition of huge over inflation to one of minor over inflation.

The rise in passes this year was 0.7%.

On previous posts from you I've seen you're confused by predictions. In normal times the term predicted grades refers to the grades given at the start of the year. They represent what the student should aspire to. They are not accurate indications of actual outcomes. They are aims, if you like.

On recent threads about this fiasco the term predicted grades refers to the Centre Assessed Grades, given on the basis of the student's actual work. They will be "over inflated" because it is not possible to say who would screw up on the day. They are out by about 12%. This is acceptable in a global pandemic in a country run by a bunch of bungling incompetents. At least the individual's prospects are not totally blighted.