To think that the government did this on purpose

[therhubarbbrothers]

The A level results fiasco seemed to penalise bright children from disadvantaged schools. Aibu to think the government knew that this would happen but saw it as acceptable ?

@tenredthings

They create situations where people are outraged then they are seen to back down to due to public pressure. I think it's contrived deliberately to create an illusion of democracy and whilst we are being distracted we don't notice how our democracy is right now being systematically dismantled by these Tory truth twisters.

has been systematically dismantled etc ...

The ranking was done within a grade, Rufus so that wouldn’t be possible.

It would have been

A1
A2
A3
A4

And A4 got bumped down to a C. Any predicted Bs below A4 would also have been bumped down to a C or worse. A1,2 and 3 may have stayed as As or could have been bumped down to a B.

The difference between a teacher deciding who was A3 and who was A4 could be a couple of marks in a mock and yet the consequence of being A4 rather than A3 incredibly disproportionate.

It's the government! They're not very supportive of the lower/working class. Nothing surprises me when it comes them.

@Bluntness100

I think folks seem to forget that even with the alogorithim there were more passes than ever before. This is simoly a case of how over inflated the results were. Some folks are reacting like thousands and thousands of kids were given grades worse than they would have achieved, and everyone was downgraded, that’s not the case at all. Overall the grades given were still better and over inflated v previous years..

Yes some kids were penalised by it, but it was a tiny minority where the algorithm got it wrong as it attempted to standardise back to previous years.

What should have occured is teachers told to assess grades but keep it within a given percentage of the average of previous years Performance. That part was missing which is what’s caused this fuck up.

They over inflated too much, so the government tried to standardise it back but still kept it over inflated.

The whole thing is a mess but the media frenzy and the hysteria some folks are displaying shows a wholesale misunderstanding of what’s actually occured.

I'm afraid the misunderstanding seems to be yours.

• there were always going to be more passes: What centre (when calculating the grades based on student work evidence) is going to be able to accurately predict which kids would have a good/bad/indifferent day in the exam? The fairest thing is to base the grade on the work they have shown they can do and try to rank their performance within the grade. This is what was asked for. This is what was done. Should there have been any concern over the accuracy and reliability of CAGs in any particular centre, moderation of random samples of the work used on which to base the decisions could easily have occurred in the 3 months between submission and results announcements. Examiners weren't marking anything else!

*thousands and thousands of kids WERE given downgrades - 40% of grades. This is not a 'tiny minority' - it's significantly closer to the proportion of votes that got Brexit through than a single-figure percentage that would represent a 'tiny minority'. It meant that thousands who would have received passing grades, were downgraded to failures, and some awarded 'U' grades, which effectively means their entry became void.

not all kids got their grade via algorithm so there was a two-tier system for allocation. Fewer than 5 in a class? You get your CAG. (this is why up to 50% of grades were higher than usual for subjects with small numbers of students in classes). In a big cohort at an historically poorly-performing school? You get downgraded in every subject, sometimes by 2 or even 3 grades. In my daughter's A-Level cohort, the majority had been downgraded in at least one subject and the overall percentage at certain grade levels was LOWER than in previous years (this is in a cohort that achieved 99.1% A - B grades at GCSE). This hardly gives confidence that the algorithm took into account previous performance!

*CAGs were calculated with historic performance in mind as there was awareness that there would be moderation so 'wild claims' of success were present in very few centres. The vast majority were as cautious as possible, whilst still giving students reasonable benefit of the doubt ( based on two years of evidence/data ) that they would give a similar performance in any exam.

There is no perfect system, but at least with the U-turn, all students are receiving grades on the same basis and the flawed algorithm has been ditched. Ofqual were warned it was flawed back in May but pushed ahead with it anyway.

The reality is, that there are probably going to be many who have done better than they would have if they had taken an exam, but better this than the thousands of high-achieving students missing university offers and having lower grades than they deserve on their academic record. Better an inflation of passes scraped in for borderline kids than thousands written off as failures with their future job prospects endangered.

A-Levels offer a path to the next stage of life chances - if any have been rewarded beyond their capabilities, at least they now have a chance to aim higher and it might even spur some on to do more than anyone thinks they're capable of based on a selection of letters and/or numbers at 16 / 17 / 18 years old.

Who voted for this shower of twats?

Sadly, most of the people I know.

can we run the model over the 2019 actual results and see what the change would be

They actually did this. And found that the model was able to accurately predict around 55% of results. So they knew in advance that the students would receive an incorrect grade in 45% of cases. And they went ahead and did it anyway.

Had the government been even slightly less incompetent, they’d have realised that giving incorrect grades at a rate of 45% would be politically unacceptable, especially as it hit state school pupils harder than private school pupils. But they are incompetent, and incapable of dealing with the detail. So they announce a U-turn far too late and students are now awarded CAGs without anyone checking the evidence teachers have used for the grades. And they’ve put universities in an incredibly difficult position.

@JuniperFather

No they didn't do it "on purpose. It's easy to look for conspiracy theories when the truth is so preposterous and it's hard to envisage how someone could have got things so wrong.

With this Government though, their modus operandi seems to be

• Can we prevaricate and delay any decision making as long as possible?
• Can we test a soft policy through the media and see what the reaction would be, and "focus-group" it instead of using our judgement?
• Is there an outside agency or body we can use as the fall guy for any of this?
• Can we make money out of any of this by generating wealth in the private sector using agency support?
• Never mind a pandemic and the need for extraordinary decisions for these circumstances - how can we spin this so it serves the interests of the voter groups represented by Mail readers?

I agree with the above, but I also think that this government comes up with an idea they want to pursue and pursue it at all costs, they don't give much weight to expert advice and cherry pick what they want to hear. They certainly dont much care or have empathy for the people who are on the end of these policies and I think this approach is showing through in

1. the delayed lockdown, advice to care homes
2. decision not to provide school meals during summer holiday for the poorest children - u turn at public outcry.
3. approach to Brexit which is not the "oven ready" easily accomplished deal they promised.

So yes, they hoped it wouldn't be a fiasco, and ignored what was happening in Scotland and didn't listen to experts because they (Cummigs) believes the algorithm is king, and ultimately they thought the people they really care about, their own class would get through this OK. I hope Johnson enjoys his well earned break

Examiners weren't marking anything else!

And ofsted have been doing precisely fuck all. Why could they not have helped checking up on how well schools followed the procedure?

@sashagabadon

I agree - I would add to this the absolute media hysteria (which has been a feature throughout and STILL a feature now) that forced schools to close back in March and for the exams to be cancelled in the first place.
This was the major error in my opinion - easy to say this with hindsight of course
and the hysteria back in March - particularly from schools / unions

What hysteria from schools/unions?

Its nothing to do with Ofsted and more to do with OfQual.

@ChloeCrocodile

Examiners weren't marking anything else!

And ofsted have been doing precisely fuck all. Why could they not have helped checking up on how well schools followed the procedure?

Ofsted failed their last review and have only stuck their head aboive the parapet.

To stir up more shit against schools and teachers.

Did Johnson puposefully promote his cabinet based on loyalty to the notion of Brexit rather than any semblance of competence? Absolutely. So I suppose you can say that all the fuck ups are on purpose.

Mind you, did we, as a country, vote in this shambles despite clear evidence of their imcompetence well ahead of time? Yes, yes we did.

I suppose you could argue that Corbyn wouldn't have been too much better, in which case, we can place responsibility directly in the hands of those who elected Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative party.

Conservative party members, I'm putting this one on you.

Conservative party members, I'm putting this one on you.

I blame the voters myself. If you refuse to listen and vote on rosette then frankly you deserve all you get. It's just a shame you drag us all into it.

Those schools would be at a disadvantage before in any case as the downgrade would have applied to them as well . They are a disadvantage either way.

No, they’re at a disadvantage now because schools that did not do this have much higher CAGs to revert to.

@Schmedz I agree with you.
The reality is, that there are probably going to be many who have done better than they would have if they had taken an exam, but better this than the thousands of high-achieving students missing university offers and having lower grades than they deserve on their academic record. Better an inflation of passes scraped in for borderline kids than thousands written off as failures with their future job prospects endangered

Listening to Williamson on the Today programme this morning talking in such a self congratulatory way about how the results were handled with "robustness" and "rigour" made me want to vom.
Can't he read the room and realise that the standardised talking points handed out to ministers last week are past their sell by date. This is their approach to everything. They literally dont get it. This worked last week so we'll keep using it.

I've seen sixth former's desperate with worry for the last months as more and more reports of the "system" not working were appearing. Some were lucky, and some have had their hopes completely dashed, all were very upset for their friends who didn't make it, it's thrown them as also this appears to be entirely random. The system they've been heading towards and had faith in, and were made promises about for 14 years has failed them. Quite an eye opener for a young person. Also, I feel very sorry for youngsters doing BTechs etc some of whom still haven't had their grades despite many having been coursework based and marked as they go through the exam.

They've backed down now and it's going to be teacher assessed grades.
And to answer your question: No. I don't think that they do anything with much forethought for the consequences.

If you know how politics really works then you wouldn’t say something so ignorant. Nothing happens by coincidence? They very plan very well , just not always in the best interest of the people.

There is no perfect system, but at least with the U-turn, all students are receiving grades on the same basis

They are absolutely not though!

Some students are receiving “what are they capable of” and others are receiving “being brutally honest, what are they most likely to get if results have to be kept broadly similar to the last three years”.

My grandad likes to tell me “it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always get in”. I think it is apt for this situation, given that education is a devolved issue and all four home nations managed to royally screw this one up, despite the wide range of parties and politicians leading each.

As much as I can’t stand the tories (and BJ’s crowd in particular) I don’t think this is a party political issue.

@HipTightOnions

Yes that makes sense SoupDragon, although that’s not how my school did it.

Sorry, I obviously didnt refresh...doh!

@therhubarbbrothers

The A level results fiasco seemed to penalise bright children from disadvantaged schools. Aibu to think the government knew that this would happen but saw it as acceptable ?

No, I don't think they did. Given what was said by the government and Ofqual about the way it would work there was every reason to believe that this would be fair. The Scottish and Welsh governments both independently went the same way. Neither of those are run by the Conservatives. I would be surprised if the SNP (Scotland) or Labour (Wales) saw penalising bright children from disadvantaged backgrounds as acceptable. I don't think most Conservatives think that way either - I have heard many Conservatives arguing that schools need to do a much better job for disadvantaged children.

I was surprised when the A-level results were announced and it turned out grades in independent schools had increased by more than those in other types of school. Given the way Ofqual said their algorithm would work there is no way this should have happened. When it became apparent that a significant number of sixth form colleges had results that were below their average for the last three years it was clear that something had gone very wrong.

It is easy to blame the government but I think this is more about incompetence at Ofqual. They designed the algorithm, not the politicians. And the algorithm clearly doesn't behave the way they said it would.

With Scotland and Wales abandoning their algorithms and moving to teacher predictions, it was pretty much inevitable that this would happen in England as well. Sadly, it means that this years grades lack credibility as it is clear that, overall, they are too high. If you got an A or A* this year it may be that you deserve it but, since roughly one in four of those who now have these grades wouldn't have achieved that if they had sat the exam, I don't know if I can trust your grade.

Unfortunately, moving to predicted grades is unfair on those students who attended schools that tried hard to be accurate. It rewards those students who attended schools that submitted overly optimistic predicted grades.

40% were downagraded

Often said but not quite true. That is the proportion who were awarded a different grade to that predicted by their teachers. Some of those were given higher grades than the prediction. And the person to whom you were replying was pointing out that overall the grades awarded by the algorithm were better than last year. The move to using predicted grades means this years results are now spectacularly better than any previous year and are almost certainly much better than next year's cohort will achieve (assuming exams are back to normal by then).

@noblegiraffe

The ranking was done within a grade, Rufus so that wouldn’t be possible.

It would have been

A1
A2
A3
A4

And A4 got bumped down to a C. Any predicted Bs below A4 would also have been bumped down to a C or worse. A1,2 and 3 may have stayed as As or could have been bumped down to a B.

The difference between a teacher deciding who was A3 and who was A4 could be a couple of marks in a mock and yet the consequence of being A4 rather than A3 incredibly disproportionate.

Thanks noble

Oh thats just silly!

What plonker thought that was a good idea to do!!??

They were dealing with an unprecedented situation, they got it wrong, they've admitted it was wrong, they have taken steps to remedy it and people are still making political capital of it! We all know that the hard left would have handled everything since March much better, including the weather, they tell us so all the time, and there'll never be the chance to test their claims. Grow up folks.

@ChloeCrocodile

My grandad likes to tell me “it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always get in”. I think it is apt for this situation, given that education is a devolved issue and all four home nations managed to royally screw this one up, despite the wide range of parties and politicians leading each.

As much as I can’t stand the tories (and BJ’s crowd in particular) I don’t think this is a party political issue.

You're far too sensible to MN!

@ElizabethMainwaring

They've backed down now and it's going to be teacher assessed grades. And to answer your question: No. I don't think that they do anything with much forethought for the consequences.

This^^

They are too arrogant to plan anything.

@HipTightOnions

There is no perfect system, but at least with the U-turn, all students are receiving grades on the same basis

They are absolutely not though!

Some students are receiving “what are they capable of” and others are receiving “being brutally honest, what are they most likely to get if results have to be kept broadly similar to the last three years”.

I meant that all are now receiving CAGs, not that CAGs are perfect. In that way, they are all receiving the same treatment (instead of some getting CAGs and some getting algorithm grades)

The appeals process now must be clarified for any who believe a CAG is unreasonable. No doubt there are a few schools who were more optimistic than others but the careful moderation (often between schools) that has already taken place seems to be the norm for the majority.