Why weren't teachers/schools more realistic with predicted grades?

[nervousnelly8]

Genuinely looking to understand how the A Level results seem to have gone so wrong. I don't work in education and DS is too young to be impacted, so hoping that those more informed might have some input!

Everywhere I see, people are calling for teacher assessed grades to be used. But if this happened, wouldn't the results be way out of line with history, rendering them useless as a form of comparison with other year groups? I understand that the model that has been used appears flawed when considering individuals, but does aggregate performance not also matter? Why wouldn't schools and teachers have been sensible in their predictions relative to previous cohorts so that their assessment could be used reliably?

Not really an AIBU I suppose, I'm sure IABU for seemingly missing the point completely!

Because the predicted grades were about individual students and may have been completely realistic but the algorithm was about a school's past. So if a student walked out of an exam last year, that would affect how many (completely unrelated) students could get an A this year.

A bad bout of norovirus hitting the school 3 years ago would affect how many of its current, perfectly healthy students could be given As and Bs this year.

If a new head of languages or whatever had worked their socks off and raised the results massively, they would still be dragged down by earlier years.

An absolutely outstanding student from a normally poorly performing school couldn't get an A because no A has been awarded previously.

Teachers were made to rank students, even if they performed exactly the same. So as only x number of a certain grade could be awarded, depending on the school's performance in the past, two students with exactly the same mock results, predicted grade etc could end up on different sides of the grade mark that allowed entry into Oxbridge.

On the other hand, some private schools had their marks upped by predictions, presumably because their current cohort was not as strong as in previous years- but it was the performance of previous years that decided how many marks in each grade band could be awarded, so some of those students were moved up even though their own teachers didn't think their performance was that promising.

what a bloody shit show!

Does this mean that some A level students may drop a grade?

@corythatwas

Because the predicted grades were about individual students and may have been completely realistic but the algorithm was about a school's past. So if a student walked out of an exam last year, that would affect how many (completely unrelated) students could get an A this year.

A bad bout of norovirus hitting the school 3 years ago would affect how many of its current, perfectly healthy students could be given As and Bs this year.

If a new head of languages or whatever had worked their socks off and raised the results massively, they would still be dragged down by earlier years.

An absolutely outstanding student from a normally poorly performing school couldn't get an A because no A has been awarded previously.

Teachers were made to rank students, even if they performed exactly the same. So as only x number of a certain grade could be awarded, depending on the school's performance in the past, two students with exactly the same mock results, predicted grade etc could end up on different sides of the grade mark that allowed entry into Oxbridge.

On the other hand, some private schools had their marks upped by predictions, presumably because their current cohort was not as strong as in previous years- but it was the performance of previous years that decided how many marks in each grade band could be awarded, so some of those students were moved up even though their own teachers didn't think their performance was that promising.

Exactly this

@StaffAssociationRepresentative

what a bloody shit show!

Does this mean that some A level students may drop a grade?

No, they've said its CAGs unless the algorithm gave them a higher grade. Well on balance it was probably the only option - there was absolutely not a chance that students and their parents could have accepted dropped grades if it meant they missed out on university places (etc). Is this the most incompetent government ever?! This could never have worked and they were warned it wouldn't

@itsgettingweird

My point about predicted grades was with regard to UCAS applications. Historically only about 18% have been shown to be accurate, mostly over-optimistic.

I'm sorry your DS had a hard time, but I am talking about countrywide grades in any particular year apart from this one.

It can go the other way though.

I know three teachers who knew their pupil's capabilities very well yet their predicted grades were downgraded by the SLT on the grounds that they had to be in line with previous school/cohort attainment. They argued their case for the individuals based on mock results but were overruled.

It looks like the school senior leaderships who did pressure teachers into predicting higher grades have played a blinder!

Well hopefully some of these kids can get into the Universities that they had offers from (assuming that there weren't too many other kids with good grades that didn't snap the places up last week).

It sounds as if the "highest grade estimate" (algorithm vs teacher's) is going to be the one that stands (which might pose a problem for some of the lower tier Universities and colleges if everybody gets to go to their first choice).

I suppose the moral of the story is that the government needs MPs and advisors that understand a bit of maths and are prepared to ask smart questions rather than "relying on others that you can blame later if it all goes wrong".

I think there might be some celebratory meals being subsidised by Rishi Sunak tonight!

Why are people on here always so so so defensive of public schools when there isn't a single media outlet that denies that in general privately educated children lost out much less than state educated children? It's so bizarre. 'Media manipulation'?! Why should anyone believe you rather than the Times Education Supplement and a whole host of other experts?

I am not saying they didn't benefit statistically, no-one is. What we are saying, is that the narrative is that private schools have been treated differently. They haven't.

Dishy Rishi is the only one who seems to come out well. Big Gav will be gone in the next cabinet reshuffle

[quote Omelette9]@itsgettingweird

My point about predicted grades was with regard to UCAS applications. Historically only about 18% have been shown to be accurate, mostly over-optimistic.

I'm sorry your DS had a hard time, but I am talking about countrywide grades in any particular year apart from this one.[/quote]
I know because you said uni.

I was agreeing with you that this can happen and saying if I hadn't seen it for myself I wouldn't have believed it actually happens.

@W00t

The thing is, the govt missed an opportunity here- they could have awarded pupils their CAGs, and then placed all the blame and acrimony at teachers' feet, and directed complaints there! What a massive wheeze, can't believe they passed that one up!

I think they are reading our posts!

What unnecessary bloody chaos and stress for students, teachers - and Unis too

In Germany, students sat their final exams in April as usual, even though this was around peak deaths
There was plenty of space plus cleaning, volunteer invigilators

Some other countries around Europe didn't do this, but still seem to have worked out something reasonable & fair, without drama:

news.sky.com/story/how-other-countries-in-europe-held-their-exams-12051074

Our kids school had ridiculously high predicted grades when they were they . Hardly any of the class got what they were predicted.
2 classes lower and higher abilities were all predicted b's (this was few years ago

and yes, the only way for the government to avoid blame is to find another scapegoat

Look out teachers, here it somes !

Well hopefully some of these kids can get into the Universities that they had offers from (assuming that there weren't too many other kids with good grades that didn't snap the places up last week).

Unfortunately, uni places were most certainly filled for a lot of institutions/courses. So the government either
a) remove the cap on places to allow higher ranked unis to take all the students they made offers to + those they accepted based on getting higher grades than expected on Thursday
b) keep the cap in place and those whose grades are now being revised so they meet the conditional offer can take deferred entry for next year

Option a risks lower ranked unis not having enough students to be financially viable. Option b makes uni entry next year more competitive for those about to enter year 13 (and they haven’t exactly had an easy run of it).

And who knows what happens to students to accepted their second choice offer or a place through clearing?!

@nervousnelly8

It looks like the school senior leaderships who did pressure teachers into predicting higher grades have played a blinder!

I doubt that's many if any.

It was clear from original guidance that schools could be requested to evidence and would face moderation for results that didn't fit usual pattern.

and yes, the only way for the government to avoid blame is to find another scapegoat

Look out teachers, here it comes !

The government has to remove any cap they put on Unis
and supply any extra funds needed as a consequence

It's a series of government screwups; students shouldn't have to suffer any more

An absolutely outstanding student from a normally poorly performing school couldn't get an A because no A has been awarded previously.

An 'absolutely outstanding student' will most likely have A*s in their mocks and other assessments - 'a shoo-in' for an appeal whatever solution the government had come up with?

Rumblings that Sally Collier (Chief Regulator) will go. Yet another odd appointment within government. A Head of Ofqual, who is actually a procurement specialist, with no background in education or statistics.

(and we know how good Government are at procurement!) Not.

The government has to remove any cap they put on Unis
and supply any extra funds needed as a consequence

I really hope so! Too many kids futures have been screwed around with already.

In Germany, students sat their final exams in April as usual, even though this was around peak deaths

Do students in Germany all take a similar final exam? Spread over one or two days rather than six weeks or so?

I think some guys from Oxford or Cambridge wanted to advise on the algorithm.

But they had to sign a gagging clause, so decided not to bother