Why weren't teachers/schools more realistic with predicted grades?

[nervousnelly8]

Genuinely looking to understand how the A Level results seem to have gone so wrong. I don't work in education and DS is too young to be impacted, so hoping that those more informed might have some input!

Everywhere I see, people are calling for teacher assessed grades to be used. But if this happened, wouldn't the results be way out of line with history, rendering them useless as a form of comparison with other year groups? I understand that the model that has been used appears flawed when considering individuals, but does aggregate performance not also matter? Why wouldn't schools and teachers have been sensible in their predictions relative to previous cohorts so that their assessment could be used reliably?

Not really an AIBU I suppose, I'm sure IABU for seemingly missing the point completely!

I thought that was what you were saying HipTightOnions but I can categorically say that this was not the case with any of my students this year and it looks like the same with Fiveletters. Saying that it’s the teachers giving the rankings that’s the issue and that was what the algorithm focussed on isn’t right. maddy68 has it pretty much spot on.

In your situation HipTightOnions, students should be able to keep the grades they have currently but other students should have the right to appeal for their CAG or mock grade too.
It seems so strange to me, for the students that sat supervised mock exams or had marked coursework, that it’s grossly unfair that they are ‘given’ a grade that is less than what they have already technically achieved.

It's being reported that they'll go with predicted grades. Seems best option schoolsweek.co.uk/teacher-grades-to-be-awarded-in-major-government-u-turn-after-results-fiasco-reports/

it’s grossly unfair that they are ‘given’ a grade that is less than what they have already technically achieved.

At GCSE of my students achieved an 8 in her mock, despite working consistently at a grade 6 standard. This was because her tutor had used the same paper when helping her prepare. Technically she already achieved an 8 but that doesn’t mean it would be right or fair for her to receive that, when other students in the same class achieved a 7 without having seen the paper so would come out with a lower grade despite working consistently at a higher standard.

I don’t work in education or have a school age child so I’m trying to get my head around this fiasco but it seems to me that no solution is 100% fair because the year’s been screwed over. But surely their teachers’ grades will be the most accurate option, even if their teachers have been optimistic - aren’t their uni offers based on their teachers’ grades? I get that no option is ideal, but surely teachers’ grades are preferable to an arbitrary algorithm?

Do many students still take a year out before uni? It was quite common in my day.
Could they, who have actually passed the exam, lose out on a placement to someone who has been given inflated grades by an overoptimistic teacher?

Also, I wonder if parents brought any pressure to bear on estimated grades.

fwiw - a study on predicted grades www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf

NB students from state schools are actually less likely to be over-predicted than those in independent and grammar schools, so going with CAGs is just the lesser of two evils in terms of independent vs state students - independent schools are likely to still benefit!

@9PointsOnMyLicence Our school made it clear that students wouldn’t be told what predicted grades were sent at the time

It is just such a mess and no real solution now.
My child was hoping to achieve 4 9’s on Thursday but school don’t really predict 9’s to encourage the high achieving students to work harder & to not put too much pressure on others. It’s a very high achieving state school. So going with predictions wouldn’t be great for them. I also know of a school in a neighbouring borough who rewrote their predicted grades as soon as schools closed.
CAG - it’s appears some were encouraged to inflate others were warned not to - which was which???

The year is split in half never had a single class with child x but someone had to put them in a rank order - how was this decided a) who could shout loudest or b) the teacher with more seniority/experience.

I have just tried encouragement & said that as long as they get to go to the 6th form they want & can do the subjects they want then they can move forward - it’s already difficult as one of the subjects that they wanted to do has been cancelled, so it’s change A levels or change 6th form..... so many difficult choices for all of them.

@ChloeCrocodile

it’s grossly unfair that they are ‘given’ a grade that is less than what they have already technically achieved.

At GCSE of my students achieved an 8 in her mock, despite working consistently at a grade 6 standard. This was because her tutor had used the same paper when helping her prepare. Technically she already achieved an 8 but that doesn’t mean it would be right or fair for her to receive that, when other students in the same class achieved a 7 without having seen the paper so would come out with a lower grade despite working consistently at a higher standard.

That wasn’t what I was referring to when I said ‘supervised mocks’ because if they had already seen the paper, that is completely different and not a true mock. I was referring to those students who have sat an unseen paper, supervised by people not their teachers and grade boundaries used by the exam board in the previous year. For those students, it is grossly unfair that they have been downgraded 2 or more grades from something that they have tangibly sat. (I would hope that you would agree with that! ) and therefore, the algorithm used in such a blanket manner, was a travesty.

With regards to a CAG, I would like to hope that the teacher awarding the CAG would not have just used that mock result on that student you refer to, knowing the student had been coached through that particular paper. If they have have, that too is grossly unfair (to the other students) and I would like to think a teacher had not done that.

II think the government just have to accept predictions and move on. It would never be a year on year comparable whatever method was used as it wasn't the same as previous years, accept, move on, kids go to where they are next and get on with life, all this aggro and grief and micro discussion is just a waste of time

chloedecker, for that student the CAG was lower than the mock because the mock wasn’t valid for that student in our opinion. Whether the student and parent will accept that is a completely different matter tho. A similar thing happened with a teacher friend in a different school and in that case the parent has properly kicked off about it and insists that the school needs to submit an appeal for that student based on the mock.

Ultimately, a swivel to CAGs is going to create less of a headache for the government, but an awful lot of problems for teachers and schools!

Can you also explain why Public schools saw an increase this year and only State schools saw a decrease in predicted grades?

They didn't. Media misinformation, statistics can be manipulated to fit any narrative.

The only reason independents are shown "statiscally" to have been less affected by the downgrades, are that they tend to have smaller classes. ANY school who had classes/subjects of more than 15 candidates were subject to the algorithm. Thats ALL schools, state, grammer, private, public. Many, many independents and Grammars have had their worst every performances, schools who have never had any candidate with less than a B, have been given D & E's. Some traditionally poor performing state schools, with small classes, who have never achieved an A have magically been blessed with several.

The whole thing is a mess and resorting to CAGs is only going to result in mayhem at the University admissions. I feel for everyone, teachers, students, universities, and next year's students who will also now be completely in no mans land.

[quote ancientgran]**@Omelette9* Teacher predictions are always over-optimistic, although with the best intentions.* I don't agree with that. One of mine was a marmite child, teachers either loved him or hated him. One teacher predicted he would get a u in his A level in his subject. University interview went well and at the end son was asked why he had been predicted a U when he had actually taken the exam the year before and already had a B. He got his place anyway but I think I can safely say teachers don't always over predict.[/quote]
Ds is autistic. His year 9 science teacher actually told me to my face ds would fail science because his social skills are bad and his writing illegible. She also victimised him horribly.
I assumed my ds version of events was the teen "sheeeeee hasaaaates me" and actually rang up to speak to her to see how I could improve things. I soon realised he was right and HOY moved him classes - which to me says evens school could see the problem.
She teaches too set year 10 so he had her again.

She assessed him at 5/6 and even though he was getting one of the highest marks each module test only would concede - he seems to have improved his behaviour. Was actually surprised when his predicted grade was 7 on report.

No other teacher has ever has an issue with quiet passive ds before.

He then got a new teacher (to him not school) in year 11 and was getting better and better marks and got a 9 in his mocks and one of highest marks in whole year group.

It's not very often I buy into the teachers dislike affecting students but having seen it I do know it's true in some cases.

Inflation of grades due to the predicted grades teachers have given have nothing to do with teachers being unrealistic, lenient or unprofessional. There will always be inflation because teachers can only rate competence and capability, not on the day performance. It’s actually almost impossible for the predicted grades not to have come out inflated as a consequence.

OP I’ll give you an example. You’re a chemistry teacher teaching 10 students. All of these 10 children are straight A students. They all achieved almost straight As in their GCSEs, their mocks and almost every piece of homework they hand in. A again and again consistently. As a teacher- What predicted grade for chemistry will you give these 10 children? A for each of them yes? But of course on the actual day of exams, all ten of them WONT get an A*. Most will but a couple might achieve an A and one rogue pupil might have had a bad day, no breakfast, no sleep and get a B or a C.

Have you done anything wrong in your initial teacher predictions? Have you not been sensible in your initial predictions? All you can predict is their capability. Not how each individual will perform on the day. That’s why grade inflation has occurred here. Not because teachers haven’t been realistic.

Inflation will always occur if teachers are assessing on performance on an average day or performance on a good day. In the example above, how on earth would that chemistry teacher know that one pupil (who has been A* all his life) would get a B?

In the example above, how on earth would that chemistry teacher know that one pupil (who has been A all his life) would get a B?*

How did you rank them?

@Omelette9

Fee-paying schools were not favoured. Small cohorts studying subjects in any setting could not be accurately graded using the algorithm, and were given the centre assessed grade. It didn't matter what the setting was. Some state schools/colleges offer subjects to limited number of students. Two, for example, in my area offer a subject to only 15 students and therefore they gained their CAGs. One of these places is the sixth form of a comp and one is a stand-alone sixth form college.

There was a table printed somewhere which showed how they did some calculations.

Basically they took last 3 years results. 2019 and lower than 2018 in table I saw for percentage of A+/A. Using + so it doesn't bold!

They then used some formula to spread the A+/A out it it meant probate schools had an increase of 4+% and other educational establishments were between 1-2%.

So there was some data that showed indi schools benefitted at top end statistically.

But it's also right that in some areas and cases they were just as disadvantaged.

@HipTightOnions

In the example above, how on earth would that chemistry teacher know that one pupil (who has been A all his life) would get a B?*

How did you rank them?

If 40% of your pupils regularly get lower marks than you expect, then either you are over pridicting them or under preparing them.

Is this announcement televised? Where can I watch it?

@Baaaahhhhh

Can you also explain why Public schools saw an increase this year and only State schools saw a decrease in predicted grades?

They didn't. Media misinformation, statistics can be manipulated to fit any narrative.

The only reason independents are shown "statiscally" to have been less affected by the downgrades, are that they tend to have smaller classes. ANY school who had classes/subjects of more than 15 candidates were subject to the algorithm. Thats ALL schools, state, grammer, private, public. Many, many independents and Grammars have had their worst every performances, schools who have never had any candidate with less than a B, have been given D & E's. Some traditionally poor performing state schools, with small classes, who have never achieved an A have magically been blessed with several.

The whole thing is a mess and resorting to CAGs is only going to result in mayhem at the University admissions. I feel for everyone, teachers, students, universities, and next year's students who will also now be completely in no mans land.

Why are people on here always so so so defensive of public schools when there isn't a single media outlet that denies that in general privately educated children lost out much less than state educated children? It's so bizarre. 'Media manipulation'?! Why should anyone believe you rather than the Times Education Supplement and a whole host of other experts?

If 40% of your pupils regularly get lower marks than you expect, then either you are over pridicting them or under preparing them.

You are preaching to the converted Witchend. We were very strict with CAGs (as we are with all assessments) and are dreading this afternoon’s announcement.

I was responding to a poster who was suggesting there was no way to predict which students would underperform.

But my point is, how do you know which ones of those 10 pupils will not get the A on the day? you know not all of them will but you don’t know which ones? You can’t give a straight A student a predicted grade of a B on the assumption that one of the ten students in the cohort will statistically get a B.

You can’t asses on the day performance. Even with ranking, the “best ranked A student” could just as easily have a bad day as the “worst ranked A student” You know a handful of the class won’t get their A*s but you don’t know WHICH of these pupils it will be.

The inflation problem arises not with the knowledge that not all of them will statistically get the required grade on the day but WHICH of the pupils won’t.

I feel desperately sorry for all the students and teachers in this situation.
Why anybody thinks this government is any more capable of dealing with exam results than they have been with Covid, PPE, and Brexit I have no idea.

Well, this discussion is irrelevant now.

Shit.