Why weren't teachers/schools more realistic with predicted grades?

[nervousnelly8]

Genuinely looking to understand how the A Level results seem to have gone so wrong. I don't work in education and DS is too young to be impacted, so hoping that those more informed might have some input!

Everywhere I see, people are calling for teacher assessed grades to be used. But if this happened, wouldn't the results be way out of line with history, rendering them useless as a form of comparison with other year groups? I understand that the model that has been used appears flawed when considering individuals, but does aggregate performance not also matter? Why wouldn't schools and teachers have been sensible in their predictions relative to previous cohorts so that their assessment could be used reliably?

Not really an AIBU I suppose, I'm sure IABU for seemingly missing the point completely!

tried to assess what they were capable of.

We were very clearly told NOT to do this, but to predict what we thought they would actually get, bearing in mind:

• that results had to stay broadly in line with previous years’
• students’ ranking.

@latticechaos absolutely, I didn't mean to suggest it was teachers' faults. I was just struggling to see how the teachers' assessment of grades could be so different to actual outcomes historically. It seems like the "exam nerves" / special circumstances factor is the main game changer, being impossible to predict.

For the A level grades, was there a way to incorporate predicted vs actual GCSE results into the predictions to try to account for exam pressure? Although I suppose this would also be flawed as someone feeling ill on GCSE day would have that carried across. Seems a bit like a lose-lose situation!

I think 2020 results are always going to be viewed as inaccurate compared to other years, so they should have just allowed CAGs. Employers will always use a pinch of salt when looking at 2020 cohort. Remove the uni place caps to allow them to take all they offered to. Clearing allowed as usual as places will open up when offers are declined.

Then we can all move on.

If you're uni bound, a lot of employers won't look at your A levels anyway, once you have a degree.

They can't account for the fact some pupils every year underperform, they couldn't choose that could they

Uncomfortable as it is, that’s what the ranking was for.

Because the algorithm doesn't understand exceptions.
There are reports of a sixth form with not particularly outstanding results. For German they hadn't achieved any higher than a B. This year they had a German national sitGerman A level and predicted an A. But the algorithm said no one could achieve an A because no one had before so the prediction was wrong! Poor lad was given a B.

If they just allow CAGs, schools that did not over-predict - ie those that stuck within the guidelines, had as it was - will be disadavantaged.

Allowing CAGs is not the magic answer it’s being presented as, and will disadvantage more than it helps. Not enough noise is being made about this!

had => hard

Going forward I think schools do need to make it clear to parents to manage their expectations that UCAS predicted grades are not the level their child is working at nor they grades theh think they may get but are aspirational

I do agree with you Hip, but there are always schools that game the system and get higher results than they might have.

@HipTightOnions I did wonder about that. If many/most schools assessed students as they should have, with minimal grade inflation then students at schools which did choose to over-predict would have an unfair advantage surely

Also this is something that could have been tackled over the summer. If a school hasn't over inflated (by comparison of whole school data Vs CAGs), then accept the CAGs. If there's a big difference, ask the school to evidence it.

As it is, this algorithm was only 60% accurate. That's appalling.

I agree about the unpredictability (which makes you wonder if exams are generally fit for purpose anyway).
One year we had a pupil who Mir-read the question which was something like 'write about any composer other than Beethoven' (not the real question -not my subject!)

Guess who she wrote about?
So obviously no marks.
But could not have predicted that!

I think I am right in saying that no student at Eton had their grade lowered compared to a national average of 40% of grades being lowered. Sixth Form colleges and Colleges of Further Education were the hardest hit.

Whole school historical data, I mean. There will be variations every year of course so a stated margin of inflation should be allowed and all the rest need evidencing.

Universities should all have honoured their offers. To remove an offer, made after a - let’s assume - rigorous sélection process by the university, is wrong. The algorithm is just a model that spreads grades on an arbitrary curve.

@HoneysuckIejasmine

Yes, you're missing the point.

Teachers can say quite confidently what a student should be capable of based on their prior attainment, effort, attitude etc. What we can't predict is what will happen once study leave starts - who will be bereaved, who gets ill, who doesn't bother to revise your subject, who's Dad gets arrested, who misunderstands the exam questions, who presses the wrong button on their calculator etc etc etc. So the 5 students you might think can get B grade might end up with ABBBC. How do you judge who will make a mistake? Do you arbitrarily decide that Joe will be pulled down and Sally pushed up, just because someone will have been? Or do you say, no, they are all capable of a B so I am going to predict a B for them all?

Teachers have said for a long time that basing our appraisals on student results isn't very fair. We can't control what's happening in their lives and what impact that will have on their results. We can only deliver our content in the best way possible and cross our fingers.

I was about to reply but this say the same - as a teacher I had to predict and was asked to go slightly high. Well, after a while of thinking about it and talking to other staff we decided to go for realistic predictions. Don't forget that the government move the lines every year anyway so nothing will ever be the same

Complete shambles and I'm dreading the GCSE results later this week for the same reason

So the algorithm clearly did not factor in a student at Eton having an off day for any reason

They weren't just lowered to what was historically achieved though- my college had it's worst results in 5 years this year due to the algorithm. We have done worse in a year where no child sat an exam, despite usually having a 100% pass rate and an astronomically high high grade pass rate. We had kids fail an exam they didn't ait. Despite 0% of kids failing an A Level at our college for years. We are based in an area of economic deprivation though. Funny that.

So the algorithm clearly did not factor in a student at Eton having an off day for any reason

The algorithm does not factor in anyone having an off day. It uses the ranking provided by schools.

What I don’t get though is does it really matter if the results weren’t comparable to previous years? Everyone knows that 2020 is an odd year. I’d have thought the priority would be to ensure young people can move to their next stage. No one will have any faith in this year’s results anyway but there are too many stories of bright young people who have been shafted.

It's what it did to the rankings that has caused the issues.

The problem is that all universities offer many more places than they have, on the basis that a large number of students don't get their predicted grades.

If unis were to accept CAGS, all places for this year and many for next year would be filled, giving next year's Y13 a massive disadvantage.

@Samanabanana

They weren't just lowered to what was historically achieved though- my college had it's worst results in 5 years this year due to the algorithm. We have done worse in a year where no child sat an exam, despite usually having a 100% pass rate and an astronomically high high grade pass rate. We had kids fail an exam they didn't ait. Despite 0% of kids failing an A Level at our college for years. We are based in an area of economic deprivation though. Funny that.

That's awful, I'm so sorry for your students and colleagues. Heartbreaking.

If they just allow CAGs, schools that did not over-predict - ie those that stuck within the guidelines, had as it was - will be disadavantaged

Michael Wilshaw was saying much the same thing this morning. Its a small percentage of centres who have an issue with significant over prediction, the rest do as they are normally supposed to do and say what the pupils are capable of achieving. This year that prediction was ratcheted back in most places.

The ranking is the invidious part of the process, its a notoriously unfair way of assigning outcomes which is why it was abandoned by most large organisations using it for performance management.

So the algorithm clearly did not factor in a student at Eton having an off day for any reason

Not sure if they had any downgrades but I did see a tweet about their best results ever which seems to have disappeared!.

If their cohorts were small they would have avoided the algorithm and benefited from CAGs.