A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

It seems obvious to me that the government should have made sure there was no more than one grade drop from the CAG and in no more than 2 subjects. They could go back and do that now. People would accept dropping 1 grade generally, but not 2.

A-Level results 2020: How have grades been calculated?

Worked real example for an anonymous school, unspecified subject, with reference to data specification links

A student can receive a "U" even if no previous cohort at the school did,
just because the algorithm has to fit the number of students in the defined ranking into the allowed % of "A', "B" etc
and can end up with nothing left to allocate except that "U"

ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

I doubt the acceptance, with these numbers of kids affected

Dropping even 1 grade can mean not getting the desired place, at e.g. a Russell group Uni

Something I am surprised about is this is such a vote loser! And I know it is four years or so till the next election, and Scotland is next year, so maybe they think people will forget in England.

Hind sight is a wonderful thing but they should have delayed the exams, the way it is nobody can be sure of the validity of any of these results.

I've just seen a Channel 4 'fact check' on the private/state school issue. It basically said that the smaller average size of cohort in private schools is likely to account for the variation fully or partly. It also said that if the same algorithm had been applied to small cohorts as to those in larger ones, then children in those smaller cohorts would have been disproportionately negatively affected instead. And that this would have affected not only private schools but also smaller subjects across the board, plus organisations like specialist units which tend to have much smaller classes. But it also said that the difference between the impact on state and private had been much less than in Scotland.

I wonder if the difference will be less with GCSEs, where cohorts generally tend to be larger?

@Marlboroughdreams

Something I am surprised about is this is such a vote loser! And I know it is four years or so till the next election, and Scotland is next year, so maybe they think people will forget in England.

You'd think so, regarding 'vote loser' but as Cummings has correctly calculated, people have very short memories.

Those 'cleverly' lending their traditionally Labour vote, in the north, to the Tories last election will have completely overlooked this come the next election.

Memories are short.

@toastmeahotcrossbun

It seems obvious to me that the government should have made sure there was no more than one grade drop from the CAG and in no more than 2 subjects. They could go back and do that now. People would accept dropping 1 grade generally, but not 2.

Too late. Places on courses have already been list.

Lost!

Can I ask teachers on here what ‘data’ or insight you used to rank your students.

How did you rank a student who hadn’t particularly performed on paper to their ability but had good ability, good subject understanding and excellent GCSE results.

I ask as my sons school said they couldn’t justify placing someone higher in their rankings on their ability and expectations over someone with better mocks marks. This is understandable but penalises anyone who underachieved in mocks.

Also the school is a very strict grammar school, strict with UCAS grades, (prides themselves on this), says they put grades inline with 3 year average yet 21% downgraded, why? Is it because past GCSE results which were part of the standardisation didn’t support the rankings?

@scubadive I can find no explanation for being downgraded on CAGs in line with 3 year average. We were. Hugely. In line with worst recent year rather than rolling average even though the cohort had stronger previous data than year at KS2 and GCSE. It doesn't make statistical sense.
I am sick to my stomach about next week.

@Bobbybobbins do you know why tge 2 students went up, must this have been based on their GCSE’s or could it have been another factor.

Do you know when GCSE’s were considered was it for the school cohort or on an individual basis?

Thanks, @Iamnotthe1. I confess I don't entirely understand the low progress scores point. I will reread the guidance.

I had assumed that the number of entries at the school would have been too high to have low numbers of students entering to allow 24% of them to get top grades, but I've just checked the latest Ofsted report (Jan 2020, based on a visit in November 2019) and the size of the 6th form was only 170. Assuming that the numbers are split equally between the two years, that's only 85 students entering and I guess numbers in many subjects could be under the magic 15.

It does seem hard to believe that the results at the school at justified, and given that top grades are up nationally in previous years, yet so many children have been disappointed, I can only wonder how many students have been given much higher grades that they might have been expected to get under normal conditions.

Just as an aside, I see lots of people referring to small class sizes, but isn't it about a low number of entries rather than small class sizes? That benefits small schools, and students doing less popular subjects, rather than independent ones per se (obviously there may be a link as independent schools might be more likely to offer a subject with few students).

Finally, I noticed last night that Worcester College Oxford has decided to honour all the offers it made to students, irrespective of the grades they were awarded. That sounded like a really positive move. Obviously all those holding Oxbridge offers will have been interviewed, so there will be greater confidence that the students are deserving of a place, even if they received grades lower than their offer.

Presumably most universities cannot follow suit as they won't have room. No idea what assumptions universities usually make about the numbers who will fail to meet their offers, but I imagine that they always over-offer.

Presumably most universities cannot follow suit as they won't have room. No idea what assumptions universities usually make about the numbers who will fail to meet their offers, but I imagine that they always over-offer.

They don't necessarily over offer as some like to use clearing for a fair proportion of students. It makes it easier to manage their intake.

Interesting. Thanks.

Great news about the free appeals!

As a matter of interest. Does anyone know a student whose grades were actually better than the CAG scores?

Have they released details of the algorithm of how they worked all this out? I expect the next political move to be distancing themselves from that in time for next election. Algorithms are meant to be used alongside human expertise, as predictive tools- not as decision-makers replacing human common sense. Who moderated the algorithm? Anyone?
The government must know this is a total shambles, vastly unfair on individual students. It’s not justifiable or fair as a system just because the algorithm has delivered about typical proportions of grades across the A level cohort this year.
The schools are just advising parents to get on the phones to clearing and then if nothing gained through that, to appeal. As PP said the sharp elbowed parents and schools who know what to do, will do it. Other kids who have been equally unfairly served won’t be able to fix this situation or have it fixed for them in the same way. This is also going to have a knock on for next years A level candidates as their choice of places will presumably be reduced by some of this years cohort still seeking places or deferring due to wanting to avoid online teaching this year- which could have a knock on effect on places for years to come.

Andy Burnham mayor of greater Manchester has just been on bbc news and he's made an absolutely brilliant case and was so impassioned.

@nankilslas

I've just seen a Channel 4 'fact check' on the private/state school issue. It basically said that the smaller average size of cohort in private schools is likely to account for the variation fully or partly. It also said that if the same algorithm had been applied to small cohorts as to those in larger ones, then children in those smaller cohorts would have been disproportionately negatively affected instead. And that this would have affected not only private schools but also smaller subjects across the board, plus organisations like specialist units which tend to have much smaller classes. But it also said that the difference between the impact on state and private had been much less than in Scotland.

I wonder if the difference will be less with GCSEs, where cohorts generally tend to be larger?

It's looking like the effect on gcse will be greater.

So pupils achieving 2/3 in subjects and bottom of the rank could easily get U or 1 because the computer has decided that a percentage at the bottom should get that.

It seems that'll be across the board of all schools and even in those who actually haven't had any U or 1 the last 3 years.

@DateLoaf

Have they released details of the algorithm of how they worked all this out? I expect the next political move to be distancing themselves from that in time for next election. Algorithms are meant to be used alongside human expertise, as predictive tools- not as decision-makers replacing human common sense. Who moderated the algorithm? Anyone? The government must know this is a total shambles, vastly unfair on individual students. It’s not justifiable or fair as a system just because the algorithm has delivered about typical proportions of grades across the A level cohort this year. The schools are just advising parents to get on the phones to clearing and then if nothing gained through that, to appeal. As PP said the sharp elbowed parents and schools who know what to do, will do it. Other kids who have been equally unfairly served won’t be able to fix this situation or have it fixed for them in the same way. This is also going to have a knock on for next years A level candidates as their choice of places will presumably be reduced by some of this years cohort still seeking places or deferring due to wanting to avoid online teaching this year- which could have a knock on effect on places for years to come.

Why do people keep going on about parents? How will having a "sharp elbowed parent" help? The students are over 18 and the universities will only communicate with them regarding places not parents. The exam boards will only communicate with the school. All parents are powerless whatever their elbows are like.

I ask as my sons school said they couldn’t justify placing someone higher in their rankings on their ability and expectations over someone with better mocks marks. This is understandable but penalises anyone who underachieved in mocks.

I guess the opposite side of that is it was meant to be what they could prove they were achieving. I would expect a pupil who could get a B getting a C in mocks can be justified as a B if they have got B at every other assessment.

But also just because it's believed a pupil has higher ability than the one who got the B in mocks if that pupil consistently achieves better why should they be placed lower just because they aren't expected to be as able.

Education isn't linear and quite often you get some late bloomers who do start achieving above expectations. And they do get better results than their higher achieving counterparts in GCSEs.

Pupils were to be ranked based on overall performance. A single mock shouldn't have affected this.

@Fifthtimelucky

Interesting. Thanks.

Great news about the free appeals!

Appeals have always been free if they were proven to have made a mistake. Bit more spin on this than the truth from government!

We want to get on and appeal, get the cogs moving - but the government has not yet released what constitutes a robust and valid mock for the triple lock appeal. Being in limbo sucks.

Pupils were to be ranked based on overall performance. A single mock shouldn't have affected this.

This is absolutely right.

Appeals have always been free if they were proven to have made a mistake. Bit more spin on this than the truth from government!

Yes, but if they hadn't made a mistake on review it wasn't refunded which would be a disincentive to appealing. It may have made exams boards less likely to alter grades as they wouldn't want to give a refund.