A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

It's an effect of small cohorts. Private schools are more likely to have small groups (four pupils doing German as an example) so they've come out comparatively better. But there's a school with a very deprived intake near me that's also done well because it only has small nos doing A Level. But larger private schools probably haven't fared significantly better than similarly sized state schools

I haven't had any experience of a state secondary since I was in one myself but are small classes in less popular subjects not a thing in state 6th forms anymore? Obviously I get that they won't be in 6th form colleges but in schools?
I had 5 in my English Literature A Level Class and 4 in my History and Music Classes. My largest class was Drama and even that was only 10.
There were about 60-70 pupils in the year (down from 120ish at GCSE) so not a small school.
Would these less popular subjects just not run nowadays?

In Wales students sat AS exams and will now keep their AS grade if it is higher than the grade they got on Thursday. This is going to mean many, many students going back up to the grade their teacher assessed them at in the first place.

@manicinsomniac

It's an effect of small cohorts. Private schools are more likely to have small groups (four pupils doing German as an example) so they've come out comparatively better. But there's a school with a very deprived intake near me that's also done well because it only has small nos doing A Level. But larger private schools probably haven't fared significantly better than similarly sized state schools

I haven't had any experience of a state secondary since I was in one myself but are small classes in less popular subjects not a thing in state 6th forms anymore? Obviously I get that they won't be in 6th form colleges but in schools?
I had 5 in my English Literature A Level Class and 4 in my History and Music Classes. My largest class was Drama and even that was only 10.
There were about 60-70 pupils in the year (down from 120ish at GCSE) so not a small school.
Would these less popular subjects just not run nowadays?

In my (not hugely extensive!) experience, it tends to be smaller schools (about 60 in yr13) that have small subject cohorts. Most will have a larger sixth form. And even for us, I had 9 in my class.

@HipTightOnions

and once again a postcode lottery.

It absolutely is not.

At my school some departments had lots of “downgraded” results and others had virtually none. We all have the same postcode! It’s all about how optimistic teachers’ estimates were.

It depends on how many were entered. It isn’t about some teachers being generous. This explains it well. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1294012623776817158.html

It's a case of money, manic. Schools that routinely run courses with very small cohorts - music would be an example at DS's old secondary - have to make a positive decision to do so despite the financial impact. In fact, they preferentially offer 6th form places to those wanting to come from another school if they want to do 'minority' subjects, in order to keep the numbers up.

In some schools, courses are axed if numbers are too small, just because the school cannot absorb the financial impact.

Hills Road is ENORMOUS - about 1200 students doing A levels in y13. I’m not surprised if they have been hit hard by the algorithm.

A few posters have said things like my child has been lucky but luck shouldn't determine your A Level Grades and university place! This whole thing is just so wrong!

My DD hasn’t even got her results yet. Her college submitted their grades late, for some unknown reason, which means they won’t get them until the 20th

What?! That's outrageous, A Level results can't be late! Universities aren't likely to hold places open for a week. I'd be onto Ofsted or the media or my MP or ... I don't know, something!!

The obvious is to check how well the Ofqal model does in predicting the 2019 results .....
BADLY

Jon Coless@JonColes01 (former DG in Dept Ed)

In simple terms:
Ofqual say that their model has about 60% predictive accuracy on average across A level subjects.

That is:
40% of grades would have been different had exams been sat 🤯
......

1. Ofqual has released information on accuracy of grading:

roughly 45-65% at A level depending on subject.

See graph - each blob is a subject:
middle top is biology- most accurate at ~67%.
Even here a third of grades likely to be inaccurate.

1. Method used here:

model applied to 2019 results and compared to actual grade distribution.

Assumes centre rank order perfect
i.e. measures their level of success in dealing with the centre-level uncertainties highlighted in this thread.

Thanks can'tkeepawayforever - that's really sad. Not schools' fault though.

BigChocFrenzy

Can you put that in really simple terms? I think I understand but want to check, 😡

There was a child in school last year doing GCSE german...she was the only one

As it was I’m fairly positive she got an 8 or 9, but if not she would absolutely have lucked in with the CAG

She got best in class at the certificates evening..which i thought was funny

Thats fucking ludicrous bigchoc

Is it possible to feel your own blood pressure rising?

I think my blood pressure is rising

It's a shambles. The algorithm is apparently something like 50 pages long which is way too complicated and will just chuck out weird and odd information anyway.

Their method of calculating grades is inaccurate, they know it's inaccurate but they don't know what to do about it.

Which subjects had less than 50% accuracy?

@SmileEachDay

BigChocFrenzy

Can you put that in really simple terms? I think I understand but want to check, 😡

... The Ofqal model was checked to see how well it could predict the 2019 resultls, since they are obviously known now

As a result of this check, Ofqal say their model will only predict the correct grades for about 45-65% of students' exams, depending on the subject

i.e. they will be wrong 35-55% of the time for the individual, but some will be up and some will be down

@SmileEachDay

BigChocFrenzy

Can you put that in really simple terms? I think I understand but want to check, 😡

I think what it means is that if you put last year's actual exam results into the algorithm, it only gets about two thirds of the grades right.

they will be wrong 35-55% of the time for the individual, but some will be up and some will be down

Rufus yes, you can feel blood pressure rising.

Where is this from, BigChoc - thank you for the explanation btw.

it only gets about two thirds of the grades right.
So they should have known that it was pretty shit.

It's disgusting. The government should have just said they will be given their predicted grades.

As a result of this check, Ofqal say their model will only predict the correct grades for about 45-65% of students' exams, depending on the subject

Ah the infamous algorithm of 'heads you win, tails you lose'.

Would have been just as fair.

This is from the Ofqal paper, predictive accuracy for a list of subjects - SHIT !
plus a bit of their explanation

Awarding GCSE, AS & A levels in summer 2020: interim report

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report

So the Ofqual algorithm isn’t actually any more accurate than the teachers allegedly inflated grades?

But the spread is more acceptable to Ofqual.

Is that right?

@SmileEachDay

So the Ofqual algorithm isn’t actually any more accurate than the teachers allegedly inflated grades?

But the spread is more acceptable to Ofqual.

Is that right?

From the looks of things, in some cases it's more inaccurate.

The algorithm shifts up some grades, shifts down others

It results in about the expected number of kids with the various grades... which seems to have been all they could achieve
rather than getting it correct for the individual student

I don't see how any reasonable person can say this is anything but unfair to those shifted down,
even if the upgraded students are happy