A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

I don't see how any reasonable person can say this is anything but unfair to those shifted down

Same

[quote BigChocFrenzy]Awarding GCSE, AS & A levels in summer 2020: interim report

[[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report]][/quote]
Oh no. From the summary here, their model was even less accurate with GCSE! What is next Thursday going to look like?

Even if they’ve enjoyed their time, education up to 18 is compulsory not just for the love if it
This will be totally soul destroying for some kids but it is not the end.... appeal and stay positive it will be ok hopefully

It is impossible for a model to predict at the individual level, but I hadn't realised it was this bad

I'm in Germany, where our senior students took ther exams in April, as scheduled, despite it being in lockdown and only just past peak deaths
The exam halls were opened, with extra ventilation, space, deep cleaning etc

Merkel & co obviously realised in advance the limitations of predictions,
so decided it was worth the risk for the kids and invigilators just for those few days in April.

(It's an advantage that she has a doctorate in quantum chemistry, whereas afaik neither BJ nor Williamson can evaluate science & maths)

Mind you, I suspect that the Heads of Eton and Harrow grumbling to Johnson and Co will have much more clout than two dozen Heads of ordinary comprehensives would.

This is an instance where we'll all see the benefits of independence. State school heads are far more likely to have to toe the line, and far less likely to have the money to do anything but toe the line. Independent heads don't need to curry political favour or do as they are told. They are also hugely pissed off and trying to figure out what is wrong with this wretched algorithm. Good on them, somebody has to do it.

What is wrong with the algorithm ?

No algorithm could accurately predict individual results, so not necessarily due to bugs etc but being asked the inmpossible

It has some odd things though
e.g. no tie allowed between 2 students in a class, so one has to be a grade higher than the other
unless in a very large cohort of > 500

Dd will have more than 15 in two of her A level classes. Small state secondary

ink{https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report\www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-repor]]t}

Oh no. From the summary here, their model was even less accurate with GCSE! What is next Thursday going to look like?

Bugger

Ok very worried about ds gcse results.

He got a 2 and 3 in English mocks. Every effort to get him a 4 but was a,always going to be hit and miss.

High achieving school in general and over NA with positive progress 8 every year with good feeder primaries.

A 2 is probably one of the lowest ranked. But he was consistently getting 2/3 in English assessment. Never quite that elusive 4.

Would predict 2/3 CAG.

But there is every chance based on an algorithm based purely on his ranking that will end up a 1 or U.

In terms of retakes it makes no difference as needs the 4.

But in terms of all the effort he and school put in to support him getting his mock results it'll be devastating.
And there's a real possibility

Just heard appeals are going to be free. They must realise they screwed up.

I'm in Germany, where our senior students took ther exams in April, as scheduled, despite it being in lockdown and only just past peak deaths
The exam halls were opened, with extra ventilation, space, deep cleaning etc

How did teachers and parents react at the time? Were there parents who refused to send their children or did everyone see the inherent sense of ensuring exams were done?

It’s all bollocks. The kids that have no IT, at home no tables to work on, kids that share bedrooms and every other space with siblings....they might get better grades because teachers know they are clever enough in class.

Some people were nervous, but it was recognised as v important for the students' future
They were just told calmly what would happen - it helped that deaths here are v low

I didn't hear of significantly high absences
but tbh I'm retired & childfree, so it would have to be a major problem to get on my radar

I'm dreading it tbh.

English came in really well at 6/5 but mocks were really low 3's and 2's in Maths and Science. She was the first year they stopped single science and she was gutted, just can't do it.
Maths is just as bad.
If she scrapes 4's it will be a miracle.

@Devlesko

I'm dreading it tbh.

English came in really well at 6/5 but mocks were really low 3's and 2's in Maths and Science. She was the first year they stopped single science and she was gutted, just can't do it.
Maths is just as bad.
If she scrapes 4's it will be a miracle.

Ah see ds was opposite end of maths and science. He got an 8 and a 9! Although watching what's happening they could end up as 4's too

The sheer volume of appeals probably means they won't be completed in time for Uni

Maybe ¼ million appeals would be what is needed to make the government U-turn, as in Scotland
They can't just bugger up results for so many kids and walk away

People won't forget this otherwise for years: parents or kids - who'll be voting age soon

@BigChocFrenzy I am also wondering how on earth the volume of appeals can be sorted in time, it's a logistical task in itself and there's a definite deadline.

I've been following all this with interest, though I don't have children affected. Huge sympathies to all those who don't have the grades they deserve, obviously.

There clearly are many winners as well as the losers. Can anyone who understands the algorithm better than I do explain the results at the Oxford Academy that a previous poster mentioned earlier? If the algorithm insists on awarding a U this year because someone at the school has had one in the last three years, how can it possibly allow 24% of entries at the school being graded A* or A when not a single entry was awarded either of those grades in the whole school last year?

@Fifthtimelucky

I've been following all this with interest, though I don't have children affected. Huge sympathies to all those who don't have the grades they deserve, obviously.

There clearly are many winners as well as the losers. Can anyone who understands the algorithm better than I do explain the results at the Oxford Academy that a previous poster mentioned earlier? If the algorithm insists on awarding a U this year because someone at the school has had one in the last three years, how can it possibly allow 24% of entries at the school being graded A* or A when not a single entry was awarded either of those grades in the whole school last year?

There are a few potential reasons but it's impossible to know without a lot more detail.

It could be that they have small classes for each subject and so CAGs have carried more weight.

It could also be because, as a school, Oxford Academy has had very low progress scores in some subjects at A level. This model seems to ignore previous progress scores. Therefore schools that normally have low progress scores could, potentially, do better out of this model overall.

How the A-level results algorithm was fatally flawed

Easy explanation & background

https://tech.newstatesman.com/public-sector/how-the-a-level-results-algorithm-was-fatally-flawed

“If you’re at a high performing school, it’s much more likely under-performers benefitted from over-prediction of their grades,”
says Wilkinson.

“At low-performing schools, high-performers have been shifted down:
they have all been shifted towards the average of the school performance over the previous three years.”

The overall results show record highs for A and A*s, but that doesn’t mean that the right students received them.

“They’ve gone for an approach which somehow maintains the integrity of the overall system, but I think there’s a lot of individual unfairness […],”
says Nason, chair in statistics at Imperial College.

@MrsFogi

I think one of the unfair outcomes of this will be that private schools will throw money and resource (not to mention lawyers) at the appeals process whereas state schools simply won't have the resource to do so. So there will be a double whammy given that I assume private schools will have had more of an incentive in the first place to inflate predictions.

Most private schools have charitable status & not pots of cash to pay for lawyers and appeals. Places like Eton are a minority in the private school system. Please stop trying to make this issue an attack on private school kids. I can assure you that some Schools are on the verge of financial collapse as they are losing pupils /customers and rising operating costs. I know many students in private schools who have been downgraded and are devastated. Just because they are at private schools doesn’t mean they are less affected Psychologically by this situation Than students in the state sector.

The BBC has announced that schools don't have to pay for appeals. Whether that is just state schools or all isn't clear though.

@Dilovescake21

I don't think anyone would argue that the emotional impact on an individual child whose grade has been unfairly down graded (by which I mean CAG and mock results where the awarded results were 1/2/3 grades lower) is less impactful because of whether the child was in the independent or state sector.

What is different is a) how many children were affected and the results show this was far more impactful on the state sector and b) the ability of those children to recover from this and arguably most children from independent schools have the school and parental support/finances that are in a better position to recover from this blow or challenge the outcome.

[quote DeRigueurMortis]@Dilovescake21

I don't think anyone would argue that the emotional impact on an individual child whose grade has been unfairly down graded (by which I mean CAG and mock results where the awarded results were 1/2/3 grades lower) is less impactful because of whether the child was in the independent or state sector.

What is different is a) how many children were affected and the results show this was far more impactful on the state sector and b) the ability of those children to recover from this and arguably most children from independent schools have the school and parental support/finances that are in a better position to recover from this blow or challenge the outcome.

[/quote]
Spot on. Especially as some local secondaries have announced resits will be at a cost of £50 per exam.

Those who can avoided tutoring and to pay for resits are mostly going to be those in the independent sector.