The people dying aren't healthy children
I can't believe people are still coming out with remarks like this. Everyone who dies will have caught it from someone.
Anyway.
I completely understand where you're coming from @Mumlookingforadvise and am weighing up the same things myself. As things currently stand, I'm not happy about sending mine back in September. I have a Y9 (to be) who will be in a 'bubble' of 240 ffs. We've been told what arrangements are in place for social distancing etc and basically they amount to changing very little and hoping for the best. He's had remote learning this year and is doing more than fine educationally for his age, so I would not be concerned about that aspect. He's missed the social aspect of school but much of that will be gone anyway - no mixing with kids outside your own group, no clubs, etc - and he has siblings so would not be isolated completely at home. I also have a sixth former whose work is much more important but his school is offering excellent online support whether he goes in or not. He has a concerning commute to college and a serious medical condition, but on the other hand has the maturity and autonomy to manage his own social distancing. Then I have another at uni who will do a large proportion of his work remotely and may or may not go back to campus (we await updates). DH and I wfh and both have serious Covid risk factors. So weighing it all up, the risks of school are looming larger for me than the benefits. I'm not concerned about fines as I don't see them being enforceable at present.
I will be looking closely at what happens in Scotland when schools reopen the week after next. Scotland has had much lower prevalence and has been more decisive about taking necessary action, but like many European countries had really got the incidence rate down only to find it popping up again in the last two weeks. Nicola Sturgeon has been ready more than once to preempt the government, so if the Scottish numbers start going up again significantly once schools reopen, I feel confident it will enter the national narrative before E&W schools go back in September. What I'm absolutely not prepared to do is send my children back if the writing's on the wall just because the government says so. I pulled mine out a week before official lockdown in March, and, even though we got away with it, actually wish I'd been bolshy enough to do it sooner, like the end of February. I was proved right by events and will trust my own judgement without hesitation next time round. Lots of people agree things will go tits up by October half-term, so my feeling is, why wait for the tide to overtake you and then panic.
The only thing that would give me pause in your shoes, OP, is that from the sounds of it your DD is an only child, and I might have concerns about isolating her from other children for what may turn out to be an extended period. As you'll get more flexibility with a private school, I wonder if it might be better to send her back but be ready to pull her out decisively if the numbers start to look worrying.