To think we are seeing a second peak but nobody seems to be calling it that?

[KenAdams]

Areas of Germany have gone back into lockdown, a number of US states are seeing a huge surge in cases after reopening everything, some states are asking visitors from other states to quarantine and the number of cases in Russia, India, Brazil are rising significantly.

Do you think a second peak is on the way or did some countries mistakenly believe they had already reached their peak given the decline in cases after lockdowns were imposed?

Australia too. Although our numbers have been low.

Some restrictions have been set back.

our numbers are still falling but USA is climbing rapidly. They are having a second peak but we are not

source - worldometers

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

No. We are not. Local outbreaks will occur and, more importantly, they are being found and acted on. As for the US, they're still in their first wave, you would be better off treating each state as a country in its own right. NY, NJ etc ie all the ones we saw first are now following very much our curve, the others are lagging behind. Bit like we did after London. Yes, you could argue that some of those states aren't exactly helping themselves right now (understatement!) but if you click on the detail for each state it tells it's own story. Use worldometer and then drill down

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The important thing right now is how do our figures look, and that of our neighbours in Europe. Remember the rest of the world 'looked on in horror' at Europe and now we're concerned for them as it makes it's way around the globe. Luckily for them they've got the benefit of 6 months of our learning and understanding, plus dexamethasone, remdesivir, knowledge on cpaps etc so hopefully their deaths won't be so devastating even if their infections are high. Remember too that come the autumn we will have all that knowledge too plus hopefully even more clinical trials behind us and we've learnt a lot about what does and does not work. I am not worried about a 2nd wave, which is not the same as saying I don't think there will be outbreaks. I am confident that the NHS will cope and that our HCP's are no longer fighting in the dark.

The US is having its first peak in some areas, other areas have peaked, the US is a very large place, comparing it to individual countries is silly. So New York has peaked and cases are now low, following every other countries path that has failed in the initial stopping of any spreading. Other cities and areas never had that first peak, and are now having it, having failed to stop the spread.

Germany has no second peak, but are now doing what the successful countries did in preventing spread by having local interventions to stop is spreading everywhere.

By definition you can't have a second wave until the first is fully under control. New cases at the moment are still part of the first wave.

There's a local outbreak in my city, largely in the BAME areas but we don't seem to be excluded from the ease in restrictions in July. I feel that decisions like this will have a huge impact on whether or not we follow the US.

To clarify, by we, I didn't mean the UK, I meant globally.

I swear some people are positively wanking themselves into a frenzy in desperation to see this mythical second peak

Very good point @Frenchfancy

The US never really came out of the first peak. This is still it.

Hobnobswantshernameback totally agree.

We musn't get too hung up on small outbreaks distorting R as per Germany. The press don't report that the R there is not back to 0.76%ish. As for America as mentioned by pp, we would be better to view states as countries given the populations and distances involved.

I do not believe that there will be significant second peaks beyond pockets of cases in countries that have been hit harde, i.e UK, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, or regions/cities like NYC, however whatever happens, further lockdowns could be a death blow to these developed economies. Never mind save the NHS, we won't be able to fund the NHS, and I'm not convinced they help to a huge degree anyway.

Well seeing as new cases are falling each day and 111 enquiries are falling each day, no I do not think we’re heading for a 2nd wave. I would review your information sources OP.

I agree that for the US it is better to look at each state as a separate country. They are not having a second peak, some states are on their way to their first peak, while others have come down.

In one graph that tracks the whole world in the FT, rates that were decreasing are now increasing again. But when you look at the country breakdown, it's clear that what's happening is that increases towards a first peak in some countries are outweighing decreases elsewhere.

I do not think a second peak is on the way. There i said it! I haven't said it before i usually just eye-roll.

Globally we’re not out of the first peak, it’s more of a ripple than a peak. It didn’t hit all countries equally and simultaneously.

And like PP says, though the figures and images from the US are alarming, it’s outbreak wasn’t evenly spread around the country, some places are only now getting their first peak. And it’s worth noting that their deaths/population is actually lower than the UK’s, though I don’t know how much of that is due to reporting/testing etc.

We know there will be local peaks, like in Beijing, but hopefully we are now in a much better position to identify and contain them before they start increasing exponentially again.

Friends in USA saying people ignoring advice and carrying on so cases will continue to be happening, deaths will continue, they seem ok with that.

Food factories one near us is a blip, ditto in other countries. The difference is that we are testing and isolating now unlike at beginning, we are learning all the time how to deal with outbreaks, just a pity we ignored care homes for so long.

No.

It stands to reason that there will be localised outbreaks, and the situation in Germany is a case in point. Their R number went up because of one very significant outbreak which meant a particular area had to re-impose restrictions. But that doesn’t mean that Germany’s rate is increasing.

I also agree with PP that we have significantly more knowledge now than we did six months ago.

And controversially, I think our death rate looks as high as it does because we reported the deaths in care homes whereas the majority of the rest of Europe did not. I think that when you add Spain’s deaths in care homes into the equation (and their care home situation was far more of a fiasco than ours) the figures will look very different.

I think we will have a second peak of this first wave, over summer hols, before we go into the next wave in Autumn.
That's just listening to scientists talking though, not the government ones who can't be believed due to politics being the foremost consideration.

@AlternativePerspective

If you look at excess deaths (which will include care home deaths in all countries) the we still have a significantly higher rate than Italy and Spain.

link

I swear some people are positively wanking themselves into a frenzy in desperation to see this mythical second peak

Hobnobs, please could you explain why you think that....I don't know anyone who would like a second wave but I do know some people who are worried there may be one.

I swear some people are positively wanking themselves into a frenzy in desperation to see this mythical second peak

Talk about judging people by your own standards Whatever floats your boat

Well, at least the government can sigh in relief knowing they have already killed off at least 60K of our people and not have to worry about having such a high no. next time as there will be no extremely vulnerable people left to catch it.

The way we have treated our elderly, our vulnerable and each other during this pandemic is an utter disgrace.

There's no 'second' wave, it's just the same one, it never retreated. It's going nowhere. People need to realise this and act accordingly.

All decisions are now being made according to mental health and wealth.

Spain are reporting similar levels of infections now as the start of Lockdown, however are happy for tourists to come and go soon to kick-start their economy.

UK are reducing the 2m to 1m, not because spit suddenly travels less distance but because it will help more businesses reopen in a viable form.

I won't be rushing to be in close proximity to others but if you are happy to then do it.

Make your own decisions about safety and act according to your beliefs, that's the best you can do whatever way you sway.

we reported the deaths in care homes whereas the majority of the rest of Europe did not
"France and Germany, for example, have been including deaths in care homes in the headline numbers they produce every day. But the daily figures for England referred only to deaths in hospitals until 29 April, when they started factoring in deaths in care homes as well." BBC

How many threads will we have with people asking if it’s a second peak yet?

I’d understand it if hospital admissions etc were increased drastically but with all the data available it seems some folks are just desperate for it to happen.