To think we are seeing a second peak but nobody seems to be calling it that?

[KenAdams]

Areas of Germany have gone back into lockdown, a number of US states are seeing a huge surge in cases after reopening everything, some states are asking visitors from other states to quarantine and the number of cases in Russia, India, Brazil are rising significantly.

Do you think a second peak is on the way or did some countries mistakenly believe they had already reached their peak given the decline in cases after lockdowns were imposed?

I swear some people are positively wanking themselves into a frenzy in desperation to see this mythical second peak

And other people are just wankers...

No, we're not seeing a second peak in the UK YET. But with an R0 that is around 1 and an estimate of 7,000 new cases a day according to that PHE leak yesterday, we will - I expect we'll see the start of it by the end of next month.

Graph for Germany - remembering that it is on a different scale to the graph for the UK, above, as there have been so many fewer cases. I live in Saxony, with a population of about 4 million. 50 cases (not deaths, cases) in the past 7 days.

You have to have the first wave under control to have a second one. Certainly not the case in the US.

What constitutes a second peak? Genuinely. What is the definition as opposed to the first peak still being here?

We are extremely careful, but no I am not going to lock my children down any longer. How many years should we stay shut ins?

Balls. Wrong thread.

In the US and a couple of other places like Iran, yes.

In places that have T&T in place, basically no. We are seeing isolated outbreaks that are regionalized. The whole point of T&T is that it ensures that such outbreaks can be stamped out quickly.

How on earth can we NOT have a second wave? The virus is still active and our track and trace is crap.

God knows I don't want one, I am a nurse, but the vibe here at work is that it's inevitable.

How on earth can we NOT have a second wave?

I don’t understand how as a nurse you don’t know the answer to this nor do your colleagues

The virus can effectively die out, it can mutate and become less dangerous, many many waves we can not have a second wave.

@FatPantsOn

Balls. Wrong thread.

wrong thread - same theme 😂🤣

I've been worried about a second wave since lockdown started to ease. Since then we've had:-

Ve day and various street parties
Teenagers congregating and not distancing
Packed beaches
Blm protests
Non essential shops reopening
Schools reopening to non key workers
Etc etc

And numbers still haven't started to rise.
And I've come to the conclusion that we cant live our lives shut away for ever.

I have a relative who works for the dept of health who said yesterday that the nhs were planning for a second wave in the winter twice the size of what we've just seen. It might happen. It might not. But if it does, this time we'll be prepared.

And by that time, we'll understand more about how covid works, well have therapies which can be used, there might be a vaccine by that time. If a second wave happens we need to track / trace/ quarantine with local lockdowns if needed.

US is not necessarily a proxy for what happens elsewhere: the states which are seeing the big rises in infections (Southern and Western) are effectively on their "first" peak. It's also notable that these states had fairly lax lockdowns and reopened very early (in some cases in April) and there's a big ideological push by many of the governors in those states to get things open again.

It's also very difficult to contain a virus in a federation of states like that where you have rules made for different regions.

Germany the rise in cases is largely attributable to a particular outbreak at a meat processing plant. Australia I don't know enough about.

It's true that in the US case complacency, combined with the utter idiocy of the Trump administration, has been a major factor and I think we need to be extremely careful not to assume that we're all home free. But I'd be careful of drawing too many conclusions about what happens here based on that.

But the failure of track and trace is largely down to the public who refuse to cooperate.

Similarly if numbers go up it will be the fault of the public who refuse to use common sense and instead expect the government to hold our hands through every tiny change.

So what if the pubs are opening. Nobody has said you have to go to one. So if you’re still not confident in doing so then don’t go. It’s not rocket science.

It’s unreasonable to expect the economy to be put on hold forever. Whole industries are in danger of collapse, the food and drink industry, theatre and the arts, etc etc there has to be a balance however unpalatable that is.

And there has to come a point where we have to accept that COVID is here and we have to live with the risk, and in some instances, that risk will be greater than we can manage on a personal level.

But the truth is we’re all going to die. Most aren’t going to die of COVID. But you could equally go out tomorrow and be hit by a bus.

I am shielding, and I could just as easily die from the condition which means I’m shielding against COVID. Or alternatively when the time comes when I need a transplant, if COVID has put the service on hold I will die waiting for a heart.

You can’t spend your life so afraid of dying that you’re not living.

wrong thread - same theme

Tbf most threads have the same theme at the moment!

I coud post that across half of MN and don't think anyone would really notice.

How on earth can we NOT have a second wave?

Please explain why we HAVE to have a second wave.
It's not inevitable.

@deydododatdodontdeydo

How on earth can we NOT have a second wave?

Please explain why we HAVE to have a second wave.
It's not inevitable.

When you look at the behaviour of all the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who are behaving like utter fuckwits today (for instance see Bournemouth beach major incident thread) then I find it impossible to believe that we won't have another wave.

SIL nurse on Covid ward (Scotland). Briefed yesterday the second wave is expected in September and the third wave in January 21. I don’t mean we’ll lock down again like we did (that’s for government not NHS) but that’s what they’re working towards in terms of ward capacity.

When you look at the behaviour of all the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who are behaving like utter fuckwits today (for instance see Bournemouth beach major incident thread) then I find it impossible to believe that we won't have another wave.

Everyone said the same about the BLM protests that started four weeks ago

@Backbackandforth the original second wave was predicted in May, then July and now September. Preparing means nothing other than that they will be prepared if one occurs.

When you look at the behaviour of all the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who are behaving like utter fuckwits today (for instance see Bournemouth beach major incident thread) then I find it impossible to believe that we won't have another wave. This was said after VE Day when people flocked to the beaches. After the BLM protests a few weeks ago, and as yet nothing has happened.

Worldometer projections for the uk suggest our second peak will start in October. I thimk cases will probably flatline until then and then start to grow as more activity takes place indoors.

Worth keeping an eye on this

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53174059

WHO are alarmed by "very significant" resurgences in Europe.

@AlternativePerspective in the red tops you read, perhaps.

If a second wave happens we need to track / trace/ quarantine with local lockdowns if needed.

I hope they will have been able to look at data and see what kinds of rules were effective, and which less so. If they can cut out restrictions that don't have a lot of effect or which have bad effects, people will be able to handle the other restrictions better, I think.