To think we are seeing a second peak but nobody seems to be calling it that?

[KenAdams]

Areas of Germany have gone back into lockdown, a number of US states are seeing a huge surge in cases after reopening everything, some states are asking visitors from other states to quarantine and the number of cases in Russia, India, Brazil are rising significantly.

Do you think a second peak is on the way or did some countries mistakenly believe they had already reached their peak given the decline in cases after lockdowns were imposed?

A second wave is coming for sure. I've just been out for a walk and no one is social distancing. Went into a local food shop and it was like social distancing is a thing from the past!

When you look at the behaviour of all the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who are behaving like utter fuckwits today (for instance see Bournemouth beach major incident thread) then I find it impossible to believe that we won't have another wave.

Exactly what others have said. We haven't seen large waves due to other large outdoor events.
People were 100% convinced we would have them after VE day, BLM, etc. Where are the spikes?
Keep saying "we will definitely get one". One day you might be right.

So what exactly do people think should happen then?

We stay in lockdown forever?

You do know that lockdown was never about eradicating the virus, just slowing its progression so that the health services could cope?

Now we have greater knowledge and treatment and the health services are more likely to cope if there is a second peak.

A second peak was always predicted. it was never going to be a case of staying in lockdown.

Wanking themselves into a frenzy 🤣 I spat out my tea reading that

Imo we’ll revert back and move forwarded phases depending on the waves/nhs capacities for another 12-18 months.

We aren't likely to know anyway, the gov are hardly likely to say, "You know we told you to go to the pubs" well we got it wrong and lots of people are dying again, they'll fudge figures

The figures we are seeing in Brazil and other parts of SA, parts of the US, are just horrifying. If you look at US maps, the area worst hit 2 months ago are recovering, all the new cases - there are many - are in other parts of the US.

From the figures, it is under control in many European countries now but as soon as you start opening up global travel obviously the situation will change.

Face masks - the countries which required social distancing/face masks rather than total shut down have done the best by some considerable distance. The answer is not to stay in lock down but for people to limit unnecessary overseas travel and wear face masks outside for the next six months probably.

Didn't Boris effectively say that he was partly ignoring scientist's advice? There was quote where he said he was being advised by scientists but ultimately decisions are made by the government not scientists? I might have got that wrong, just caught a fleeting headline.

Definitely. Less people tested in today's figures and numbers have almost doubled since yesterday (600 to almost 1200)

Local outbreaks are not being acted upon. Town near me the cases are rising (against national trend) but there are no restrictions imposed they are out following the new guidelines all the shops opening, schools back rather than anything resembling lockdown.

@butterpuffed

I swear some people are positively wanking themselves into a frenzy in desperation to see this mythical second peak

Hobnobs, please could you explain why you think that....I don't know anyone who would like a second wave but I do know some people who are worried there may be one.

There have been people here wetting themselves over a second wave. VE Day - no. Rush to beaches - no. BLM marches - no. It seems some people are desperate for one.

@KenAdams

Areas of Germany have gone back into lockdown, a number of US states are seeing a huge surge in cases after reopening everything, some states are asking visitors from other states to quarantine and the number of cases in Russia, India, Brazil are rising significantly.

Do you think a second peak is on the way or did some countries mistakenly believe they had already reached their peak given the decline in cases after lockdowns were imposed?

It really doesn't matter if it's the first wave of second.

@goosefoot

Agree entirely.

@AlternativePerspective

So what exactly do people think should happen then?

We stay in lockdown forever?

You do know that lockdown was never about eradicating the virus, just slowing its progression so that the health services could cope?

Now we have greater knowledge and treatment and the health services are more likely to cope if there is a second peak.

A second peak was always predicted. it was never going to be a case of staying in lockdown.

I think we do need to ease lockdown.

I just think we also need to be prepared to tighten it again if cases increase.

By the attitude of many, that may be a big ask.

We aren't likely to know anyway, the gov are hardly likely to say, "You know we told you to go to the pubs" well we got it wrong and lots of people are dying again, they'll fudge figures well, did the government make it mandatory for you to go to pubs? No? So why, if you’re not comfortable with the idea of going to pubs do you think you should be going to them.

I swear to god some people want to live in a nanny state. What happened to thinking for yourself and using common sense.

@Newjez there won’t be another lockdown. People will absolutely refuse to comply with another lockdown.

We’ve had people doing what they want throughout really and even those who haven’t have been demanding the easing of lockdown for weeks now. And the media aren’t helping. When we were at the beginning the press were screaming for lockdown. As soon as we went into lockdown the press were screaming that it’s too strict and time we reduced the lockdown.

And the economy simply cannot cope with another lockdown. I know that people seem to think that we should expect to put a couple of hundred thousand lives above the economy which affects 60 million people, but there has to come a point where the balance has to tip the other way.

And before I am slated I am one of those at risk if I catch COVID.

Which "second peak" are we on now?

Last Night of the Pubs second peak?
Nice sunny bank holiday shocker (the shocker was the fact it didn't piss down to be fair) second peak?
VE Day Death Conga second peak?
IKEA queue shocker flat packed second peak?
Primark reduced to 99p peak?
Macdonalds drive thru do you want fries with it second peak?

Numbers go up and down a bit - the general trend is down. Sorry to stop you salivating over the idea of another 3 months of doom and gloom and being able to play school prefect over other peoples' lives.

I'm not sure new cases mean lifting restrictions was wrong. I'm not in the UK, but we have just lifted many restrictions - the health authorities were very careful to say that there would probably be some increase in cases as a result but that was expected and not to panic about it, and that we should not get invested in the idea that we can totally prevent this. And they have overall been very conservative in their management.

But lifting restrictions has been in part because many of them are not sustainable over the longer term.

Please explain why we HAVE to have a second wave.
It's not inevitable.

PPs above have said the NHS is preparing for the next wave. I am a senior scientist working in Pharma. Literally no-one at work is saying 'well that's Covid-19 over with, let's drop all the treatment and vaccine projects'. Everyone who know about pandemics (medics, virologists and epidemiologists) does not think this is over. If we are lucky then it will behave like flu, the pandemic will last ~ 2 years and then enough people will have long lasting immunity that it dies out. But plenty other infectious diseases have regular seasonal waves and that is what we have to prepare for.

I'm not being a Dementor and I'm not particularly worried about crowds on beaches but to think it's all over after less than a year is excessively optimistic.

Sorry to stop you salivating over the idea of another 3 months of doom and gloom and being able to play school prefect over other peoples' lives.

What a strange thing to say!

WHO made a statement saying the rises in case numbers are of concern.

It did not issue any new formal warning, but the need for this kind of statement does indicate that the situation remains risky

@CountFosco

Please explain why we HAVE to have a second wave. It's not inevitable.

PPs above have said the NHS is preparing for the next wave. I am a senior scientist working in Pharma. Literally no-one at work is saying 'well that's Covid-19 over with, let's drop all the treatment and vaccine projects'. Everyone who know about pandemics (medics, virologists and epidemiologists) does not think this is over. If we are lucky then it will behave like flu, the pandemic will last ~ 2 years and then enough people will have long lasting immunity that it dies out. But plenty other infectious diseases have regular seasonal waves and that is what we have to prepare for.

I'm not being a Dementor and I'm not particularly worried about crowds on beaches but to think it's all over after less than a year is excessively optimistic.

Organisations have to pragmatically look at different operating scenarios. That's not Dementoring.

Crying out that the 10th second wave is coming because of some group behaviour or minor relaxation and wanting life to remain in suspended animation indefinitely is Dementoring. (Especially if it involves enforcing and shaming over non-existant rules).

Oh god fucks sake
Of course we have to be prepared for a second wave
Same as we prepared for the first wave with field hospitals etc
Same as we prep for winter pressures
No one is pretending it's gone away
But so far I've seen people claim the NHS is predicting a second wave in
August
September
October
November
December
........
And stop acting like you know some top secret classified information when you post these claims
We are preparing
No one can actually know what will happen

Alternative
I don't understand your reply to my post tbh.
Are you trying to say I don't think for myself or others don't.
I can assure you nothing the government say will have me acting in a particular way, or anyone else come to that, I'm my own person
I don't believe a word they say, not just this government, any government.

I agree there's too much panic, as opposed to trying to be calm. However, I recognise it would be far more difficult for some than for others and some things are difficult to navigate - for example, we missed a funeral and never got to say goodbye to a family member (died during lockdown, but not from Covid-19). Even his wife had to make the decision in a 5 minute phone call between saying goodbye face to face or attending the funeral, so it's understandable some people are struggling to cope for a multitude of reasons.
However, I think often people's concerns about lockdown rule reductions and 1 metre rule coming in are being miscontrued by others as that person being concerned for themselves. In reality, I think more people are concerned with 'the masses' not thinking for themselves, as opposed to that individual not thinking for themselves. Of course most who are concerned about the pubs opening etc. are not going to go there. For us, it's more a case of shielding and waiting to see how things progress over the next few months to avoid our son (who has an underlying health condition) picking it up if possible. Of course we all need to still live our lives and people will make their own decisions (and entertainment in many cases), but the major concern is for those who are not thinking for themselves - which is a high number. I'm not sure it matters if it's a 'second wave' as such. The reason it reduced was because we were in lock down, so at some point it's likely it will increase as lock down rules decrease. I think CountFosco's reply is useful, as it's more about listening to the science behind it.