There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

OhtheRoses they are not really comparable.

I know i would much rather have Blair as PM today.

Or to keep it balanced

May
Cameron (actually no)
Brown
Blair
Major
Thatcher

And that's about it for PM's i remember

So why is it felt that UK is going to be different from those other places.

The virus doesn’t care “what other countries are doing”.
If we have a very incompetent/complacent/uncaring government - which we do - added to a very bored/disillusioned/stupid populace - which we do - then the UK is at significant risk of a “second first wave” which could dwarf the first. What happened or is happening elsewhere is irrelevant. Nobody would have guessed that a pandemic would kill just a few thousand in metropolis dense often chaotic 1 billion China but would kill 50,000+ in the wealthy, supposedly technology and resource rich UK. But that’s what happened. Each country circumstances and response are utterly unique. You start relying on “what’s happening over there” at your peril.

The greatest risk to the British is hygiene. They had to be instructed to wash their hands after the lavatory and keep their surfaces clean.

Actually, I'd put John Smith at the top of my list of former leaders. For the record I voted for Jeremy Hunt but I concede that Starmer is electable.

Get real. Covid-19 appears to spread best and quickest in cool conditions, indoors, so let's hope for the warmest summer on record. Buy and use sun screen generously, at every opportunity. wash hands as often as possible, and hope that a vaccine is available quickly.

However terrified we are, we are risking having work to return to. Most children are very low risk, so the emphasis needs to shift to protect those at higher risk, ie, anyone with a chronic health issue should stay away from elderly folk in poor health. Lok at the stats.... this virus hits the old and frail and those with health problems much harder than children.

No work, no tax paid, no NHS. It's quite a brutal equation.

One thing I would comment on - people refer to the cold conditions in meat packing factories as a reason for spread.

That may be true.

But look at Saudi Arabia. If I remember correctly they locked down before us and it was a pretty strict lockdown.

The cases now are scary. They are having far more cases although I think they are due to come outnof lockdown any day now.

But KSA is not known for its cool climate. I suspect the spike may be due to Eid.

Probably working environments/ accommodations play a major role.

India / Pakistan too are hot countries.

It seems to spread in many countries.

So I'm not sure we can really claim cold conditions are a breeding ground.

Smith - the greatest leader never to have been PM.

We would be living in a differnet Britain now I am sure and Labour would still be a force to be reckoned with in Scotland.

Should clarify - I think it does spread in cool conditions. But it spreads in other conditions too.

Boris said right at the start they were "aiming" for a second peak during the summer holidays,
If that’s the case why unpause shielding bang in the middle of summer! X

Take away the bumbling posh accented delivery and silly hair and all you have with Johnson is an exceedingly average politician, albeit one with absolutely zero moral scruples - which is how he got where he is today. Such ruthless ambition, focused only on self of course, not on the country or any ideology, is a however virtue in the eyes of many.

May was of fairly average ability but she did at least have a moral compass and sense of duty, though she was an awful communicator.

Cameron was halfway competent but that’s it - basically Tony Blair minus the charisma and ambition.

@Timeforanotherusername
I’ve never been to Saudi, but I’ve known many people who live out there and none of them spend much time outside. It’s all air con inside.

Starmer is competent which is pretty attractive right now.

@Timeforanotherusername

One thing I would comment on - people refer to the cold conditions in meat packing factories as a reason for spread.

That may be true.

But look at Saudi Arabia. If I remember correctly they locked down before us and it was a pretty strict lockdown.

The cases now are scary. They are having far more cases although I think they are due to come outnof lockdown any day now.

But KSA is not known for its cool climate. I suspect the spike may be due to Eid.

Probably working environments/ accommodations play a major role.

India / Pakistan too are hot countries.

It seems to spread in many countries.

So I'm not sure we can really claim cold conditions are a breeding ground.

Saudi Arabia reopened their mosques end of May IIRC. They seemed fairly disciplined with social distancing inside (pic attached) but still doesn’t seem enough on its own.

In any case it seems like the role of aircon in circulating the viral droplets is absolutely crucial. This excellent article, which I’ve shared before on MumsNet, explains it:

english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-17/an-analysis-of-three-covid-19-outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-can-be-avoided.html

Define SAFE
AS unless you know what you want
you cannot slag off what there is

Cameron was not ambitious . Oh no, not at all. I don't know about charisma but he was every bit as insincere as Blair. He had a significantly more gracious wife however.

I saw a paper which said that spread is slower in warmer conditions.

So the rate here now is the slow one, because it's summer

If the study which showed that the rate of people having antibodies was about 17% in London and lower elsewhere (substantially lower outside cities) is correct, plus the ones which show that >60% of people lose their antibodies (more if a mild ie non-hospitalised case); then we could be in quite a difficult situation in the autumn and winter.

The NHS is certainly doing loads of contingency planning for autumn/winter, but I don't know how if that is prudent 'in case' planning or 'oh fuck tsunami 2 is inbound' planning.

Also, I'm trying to work out what they mean by the possibility of adding extra cohorts to the flu jab programme

I'd say a 0.00065% chance of dying is pretty safe. Can someone explain to the teachers and their unions please.

Flu season in September won't be the usual self because people won't travel as much this Summer. I would say flu will be much less prominent and fewer people would catch it (many ppl will still be wft well into next year).

Yeah it may be the air con.

I never considered that, was only going on discussions I have had with people over there. But if media is like anything over here they will get a distorted view.

@MarshaBradyo
Too late unfortunately. Brexit will have ripped Britain apart long before 2024. In fact I am a Labour supporter but I think it’s probably better Labour loses the next election so the Tories have ten years of managing their Brexit. Unfortunately it’s possible Labour will scrape a coalition government in 2024 thus inheriting the worst of the Brexit slump and likely huge unsolvable issues in Scotland/N.Ireland. They will then be blamed for this Brexit fallout/demolition of the UK when the next election swings round in 2029 - and could face annihilation...though it’ll probably just be an England/Wales rather than UK election by then.

@OhTheRoses if only people would listen

43000/66,500,000 = 0.00065%. That is the statistical fact.

It’s not though. 43000/66,500,000 = 0.065%.

@OhTheRoses give it a rest.

Cam if the economy is going to be fucked with Covid we might as well fuck it up with No Deal as well.

It will be a much lower cliff we are falling off!

I do jest! Although actually no deal is no longer as scary. We are fucked so

*we are fucked anyway

Cameron started the whole Brexit fiasco then the world offered up something even more distracting.

Agree on England / Wales at some point.