There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

Timeforanotherusername

Define low risk?

Are children less likely to to be extremely ill?

Yes

But that isn't the be all and end all of the situation is it?
Children seemingly catch it and spread it at the same rate as adults and pass it on to adults.

What information we have on that is patchy.

@CupofHorlicks

Yabu, we cant and wont lockdown again I dont think. For almost all people it is an unnecessary over reaction and damages the economy/lives/livelihoods. Cancer and other illnesses also need to be treated, we cant stop again for one illness at the expense of all others.

How do you treat cancer patients in the middle of a pandemic?

I'm sick of people blaming cancer treatment on lockdown. The problem with cancer is the virus, not lockdown.

If all the schools had been providing perfect blended learning then fine. Delay a return. But that hasn't been the case has it. I believe the teachimgnunions have put barriers against that too due to contract, teacher competencies and pressures and inequality of pupil access to devices. --oh, let me think - the same teachers who constantly say that screens at home are a barrier to deprived children learning.

One. Really. Couldn't. Make. It. Up.

Utterly ridic. Hope the teachers and their unions are proud of the contradiction and themselves.

Funny how all the union members are on full pay with a fully paid summer holiday ahead of them. I assume, due to the potential risks, no teacher will go on holiday this year.

Do pubs tend to be unionised?

I'm not criticising the unions - they have a duty to their members.

But it does make it easier for the government.

I don't think the govt have prioritised pubs per se. I just think they are completely and utterly incompetent.

There is not one member of the current cabinet that should be in that position.

I didn't vote for them......who did?

OhTheRoses

One. Really. Couldn't. Make. It. Up.

You could and you frequently do.

They will be back in full regardless

How interesting @FrippEnos. Do provide an example to backup the insult.

Schools are really important and need to go back. It also frees adults up to work.

If we can only have a certain amount of freedom without cases increasing, schools should be prioritised over pubs and cinemas.

It really is a strange set of priorities.

The extra cleaning has to be paid for. Who will pay?

Classes of 30 are too big to allow for social distancing. Will the government pay the extra teachers needed?

How will children get to and from school with places on public transport limited to less than half the norm?

How will dinners be arranged ? Where will they be eaten?

Will there be a cleaner in each toilet block all day to ensure cleanliness?

I think the shitty way Mr Wetherspoon or whatever he is called treats his employees suggests it's a sector in need of a union!

@Redolent
Please provide proof for this level of scaremongering. You should be ashamed of yourself

@formerbabe

Loads of my dcs class are in thanks to their parents being keyworkers meanwhile my dc is still banned and getting even more behind because she point blank refuses to do the work. It's disgusting.

YOU are the parent. You know what she needs to do. You need to put your foot down and curtail all the nice bits of her life until she gives in. It's not a popularity contest. Believe me, I failed to do the crack down, quite badly, when DS was eight, and it took years to sort out the issues. Please get harder, because your DC will be the one paying the price, and it is a price your child will pay for the rest of life.

I would say roses that your post is unnecessarily catty on what has been an unusually civilised thread.

Spikes will be localised and contained. Treatment is improving daily, there are vaccine trials underway at human testing stage (a family member of mine is a volunteer and had it last week). Be positive.

I’m very curious to see what sturgeon will do re: the 2 metre rule, face masks etc.

In schools? It won’t apply, that’s the point. Until yesterday we were blended learning with social distancing. None of that is required with a full return. Back to normal she says.

Pubs and cinemas employ a lot of people so Yes they need to be open

My children are still loving lockdown. We get outdoors every day and regularly meet outside with friends and family. I have been on unpaid leave since April. We can afford to live on just my husband's income, mine just made things easier and allowed us to have savings. Mentally I couldn't juggle work and parenting/schooling. I wasn't coping. My husband works outside the home, so juggling work and childcare was left to me. He also had the bigger salary. I've enjoyed the time off, but I worry that if schools don't go back - will work keep my job open indefinitively. It's 3 days a week and pre coronavirus I found it a good balance working part time.

Whilst I'd like things to get back to normal, I worry if my children go back full-time they will bring coronavirus home to my DH and me. DH has type 1 diabetes and I'd like to avoid it. Part of me wonders if I'll have to extend unpaid leave beyond September.... or give up work and home school till vaccine.

[quote Institutkarite]@Redolent
Please provide proof for this level of scaremongering. You should be ashamed of yourself[/quote]
Proof of what? Every statement in my OP is the true, from the virus thriving in colder conditions (according to Patrick Vallance in yesterday’s briefing), the risks inherent in places of worship, to the dramatic rise in coronavirus cases across the globe.

You may disagree with the conclusion I’ve reached or the way I’ve assembled the information. You may reach for additional facts that you feep I’ve omitted, but nothing I’ve said is untrue...

The Tories only care about people who use private schools.

Private schools are doing lessons everyday through zoom type apps. State schools are mostly not.

Why are pubs more important before children?

Why do people persist in saying this? The two are unconnected. If an establishment can be opened with adequate safety measures in place, then it can go ahead. Schools, especially secondary schools, have tremendous challenges to ensure safety for children AND STAFF. That they haven't opened more widely so far is down to the Government's own guidelines. It has nothing to do with the teachers themselves. Or the Unions, for that matter. When has a Tory government ever paid any attention to anything a Union has to say?

If schools are back, people can get back to work and paying taxes.
Most people can do that already. Only 8% of the working population have children of primary school age, for instance.

If schools are back, people can get back to work and paying taxes.*

@MintyMabel

I’m very curious to see what sturgeon will do re: the 2 metre rule, face masks etc.

In schools? It won’t apply, that’s the point. Until yesterday we were blended learning with social distancing. None of that is required with a full return. Back to normal she says.

No not in schools, I mean across society in general.

I’m curious because Sturgeon is channelling Prof Devi Sridhar, who is strongly championing a policy of suppress/eliminate the virus in Scotland over the summer, so that kids can go back to normal in September.

Fripp

But that isn't the be all and end all of the situation is it?
Childrenseeminglycatch it and spread it at the same rate as adults and pass it on to adults.

Replace seemingly with may then i would agree, but seemingly implies its most likely the case and the evidence really doesn't suggest that yet.

We'll not really know that now until September probably October / November

Which is a shame. As getting limited numbers back in schools with staff who were low risk and prepared to work with little social distancing would have been worth investigating in June / July in my opinion.

Cases may have increased, but hopefully outbreaks could have been shut down quickly with limited risk to health. The school holidays would have then allowed things to normalise.

Instead we will have a completely different world in September. Many people will be unemployed / facing redundancy. I suspect their view on schools being shut may change. And the ones who've shouted the loudest won't be in such rosy circumstances. Its autumn and almost flu season.

It has the potential to be the perfect storm.

But we won't know will we. Which is a shame.

I hope, I really do, that kids don't spread it because it is quite terrifying if they are super spreaders and they haven't been exposed during the summer months and then go on a spreading spree when economics means schools have to be open.

@redolent 43000/66,500,000 = 0.00065%. That is the statistical fact.

Johnson is a compulsive liar - he even lies when he doesn’t have to. So whatever comes out of his mouth your best bet is to ignore it completely, or if you’re looking for certainties, assume the exact opposite is/will be true.

Carn77 no different to Bliar then.