There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

A young couple I know said they used contraception every day for five months ... but it was obviously an utter waste of time as they never even got pregnant once! They might as well just throw it all in the bin and save themselves some money. @Covidlogic

@OhTheRoses

I'd say a 0.00065% chance of dying is pretty safe. Can someone explain to the teachers and their unions please.

Fortunately schools and LAs are already well advised by PHE on the up to date risks in their area. We don’t need anyone on Mumsnet to take on this role thanks.

HipTigjtOnions you are absolutely right. It's still infinitesimal though.

The country has done what it can to help prevent the vulnerable from getting it. They’ve ultimately had to lose their jobs to help protect people and most have done that and been understanding.

They can’t be expected do it forever. If another peak starts, so be it. Nobody that is fit and healthy will agree to another lockdown to help preserve the lives of strangers. It’s not fair to ask people to lose their livelihoods, to lose their children’s education etc for the benefit of people they don’t know. There will be riots.

@Timeforanotherusername
Yep. But rest assured in 2024 it will all be Starmers fault for trying to block the ruinous Brexit and for not supporting the mismanagement of the current crisis. If people had just cheered a bit more loudly in support of the present and oncoming destruction everything would have worked out perfectly.

It seems to be a battle between the unions, the government and parental concerns. So it’s probably too early to say at this stage.

useruser absolutely. Why should they pay attention to NHS England when they have the teaching unions. Only up to a point will the scummy public put up with paying tax for teachers to keep on being paid for not doing my work. Accept some have rolled out super blended learning but those who haven't end to be performance managed and then I'll support the hardworking, competent, committed 70% being paid more.

Hopefully this may be the end up call. Much of the public hasn't been on full pay. A high percentage of the public will be unemployed come the autumn.

Social distancing will not be applied in schools and "bubbles" will be expanded to enable all pupils to return to their classes full-time in September, the Government will announce next week.

Pupils will not be expected to keep two metres or even one metre apart at all times while in the school building, The Telegraph understands.

Just saw this on another thread. I don’t fully believe it until it is actually said, but still

Only up to a point will the scummy public put up with paying tax for teachers to keep on being paid for not doing my work. Accept some have rolled out super blended learning but those who haven't end to be performance managed and then I'll support the hardworking, competent, committed 70% being paid more.

Wow so much to pick apart and criticise with this post.

1/I don't consider myself scummy.

2/ how do you get to your 70%

3/ what measures would you put in place to qualify the work the 70% have been doing to be considered acceptable?

4/ what corrective actions would you suggest

5/ what are measures are management going to put in place to address poor performance

6/ not my experience at all. Thank you my kids teachers. You have been amazing throughout.

Not every family's experience regrettably. Tune into R4 and that's churned out by the BBC.

@OhTheRoses not a stat really. The whole population haven't caught covid have they? Luckily we shut down albeit too late. The lockdown has saved thousands and thousands of lives.

I would also question why the government are ploughing millions of pounds into oak academy to produce a years worth of online learning! Totally unnecessary unless they are expecting further closures.

you are absolutely right. It's still infinitesimal though

I know I am.

It’s also a pretty unhelpful figure when talking about risk. It’s the proportion of the population who have died so far, while subject to the huge mitigating effect of lockdown.

That is not the same as the “risk of dying” if we carry on as normal and let the virus spread unchecked.

People need to see friends and family now while the R rate is low. If it's still 1 in 1700 with the virus, now is the time to catch up with our lives. It's likely to be short-lived, so don't miss out.
September was never guaranteed to be Covid-free and perfectly safe for teaching and support staff to go back to crowded classrooms.
But I agree, that track and trace is essential, and we don't have it.

Social distancing will not be applied in schools and "bubbles" will be expanded to enable all pupils to return to their classes full-time in September, the Government will announce next week.

How many times...

Bubbles don’t work for secondary schools.

People need to see friends and family now while the R rate is low. If it's still 1 in 1700 with the virus, now is the time to catch up with our lives. It's likely to be short-lived, so don't miss out

Oh FFS.

Timeforanotherusername

So we agree that all of the information isn't there.

Call it patchy, call it inconclusive.

Either way more work needs to be done.

OhTheRoses

Not an insult, just the truth.

But feel free to keep making up things about the unions.

Dying is not the only harm

@Babesinthewud

The country has done what it can to help prevent the vulnerable from getting it. They’ve ultimately had to lose their jobs to help protect people and most have done that and been understanding.

They can’t be expected do it forever. If another peak starts, so be it. Nobody that is fit and healthy will agree to another lockdown to help preserve the lives of strangers. It’s not fair to ask people to lose their livelihoods, to lose their children’s education etc for the benefit of people they don’t know. There will be riots.

I agree that there is a significant risk of social unrest. Unemployment is always a harbinger of that.

But it’s also not really true that the fit and healthy are spared from any ill effects. There’s a reason that the governments priority vaccination list includes all over-50...they are at not insignificant risk of being hospitalized . Add to that that even so-called ‘mild covid’ for previously healthy people can cause lung scarring, pulmonary fibrosis, and kidney problems. And then of course, the more rife the disease is in our society, the more hospitals will become dangerous places that must be avoided at all costs. We saw the devastating effects of that in March-April as A&E attendance went down. That will impact everyone.

@Redolent

**I agree that there is a significant risk of social unrest. Unemployment is always a harbinger of that.

But it’s also not really true that the fit and healthy are spared from any ill effects. There’s a reason that the governments priority vaccination list includes all over-50...they are at not insignificant risk of being hospitalized . Add to that that even so-called ‘mild covid’ for previously healthy people can cause lung scarring, pulmonary fibrosis, and kidney problems. And then of course, the more rife the disease is in our society, the more hospitals will become dangerous places that must be avoided at all costs. We saw the devastating effects of that in March-April as A&E attendance went down. That will impact everyone**

I don’t disagree that it can affect seemingly healthy people, but thankfully the evidence suggests that the vast majority will be absolutely fine. It seems like BMI plays a part in it too and there are many many people that don’t fall in to the healthy BMI category even if they appear otherwise healthy.

I suspect a scenario with a 33 year old that’s obese or a 58 year old that has a BMI of 20, the older one would fair just a well.

I think it’s safe to say that anyone under the age of day 55 that’s healthy and not overweight will absolutely fine unless of course you’re the one unlucky one.

And for those teachers who are over “say 55”, Babesinthewud? There are plenty of us.

Or those who are overweight? Or not “healthy”?

Tough shit, eh?

@HipTight

What you on about? I used 55 as an illustration to say there are plenty of healthy active over 55’s, that a probably more healthy as some 30 year olds!

As for the overweight, that’s an individual problem (I happen to believe that some people are more susceptible to being overweight through genetics but many would disagree) and that’s something that people can do to make it less likely they will suffer from covid in a way they would if they were obese.

Same question to you regarding otherwise you get healthy adults with children- tough shit for them to have to lose their jobs, theyr child not getting education etc? Should they just suck it up??

[quote Babesinthewud]@Redolent

**I agree that there is a significant risk of social unrest. Unemployment is always a harbinger of that.

But it’s also not really true that the fit and healthy are spared from any ill effects. There’s a reason that the governments priority vaccination list includes all over-50...they are at not insignificant risk of being hospitalized . Add to that that even so-called ‘mild covid’ for previously healthy people can cause lung scarring, pulmonary fibrosis, and kidney problems. And then of course, the more rife the disease is in our society, the more hospitals will become dangerous places that must be avoided at all costs. We saw the devastating effects of that in March-April as A&E attendance went down. That will impact everyone**

I don’t disagree that it can affect seemingly healthy people, but thankfully the evidence suggests that the vast majority will be absolutely fine. It seems like BMI plays a part in it too and there are many many people that don’t fall in to the healthy BMI category even if they appear otherwise healthy.

I suspect a scenario with a 33 year old that’s obese or a 58 year old that has a BMI of 20, the older one would fair just a well.

I think it’s safe to say that anyone under the age of day 55 that’s healthy and not overweight will absolutely fine unless of course you’re the one unlucky one.[/quote]
Unfortunately the UK is once again an outlier in not tracking recovered cases. So we have no idea how many people who have had mild covid have actually fully recovered, and how many are suffering from impaired lung function three months on. Coronavirus is a multisystem disorder and we’re finding out more about its medium and long term effects every day. Happy to dig out some papers for you.

I’m lucky to be in a position not to take the risk of ending up with a shitty quality of life, being on a dialysis machine, having neurological damage, or suffering from breathlessness for months at least, and happy to wait it out. Not ‘forever’. I believe by the end of the year we’ll have a reliable combination of drugs that prevents progression from mild to moderate illness.

That’s my own risk assessment. I think everyone is free to make their own —— to an extent. Because society is a long more interdependent than we realise.

We cant stay in forever though
And what about peoples jobs and homes being at risk , do you not think that kay have negative effects also
Re : 1 m plus , yes pubs will have to follow this and its nit pubs like normal by any stretch