There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

Fripp what science?

What is patchy?

Surely the facts speak for themselves?

Unions are already expressing concerns about Scottish school plans

Of course they are.

Piggy it doesn’t surprise me about unions in France, it fits with my perception.

Be interested to hear about Germany too, as they were back as an earlier priority.

I don’t think we’re unique wrt pressures but I do think looking at other countries is interesting.

I suspect schools will be reopened come what may in September. Political suicide for the Tory party not to reopen, and economic suicide as well. Inevitable I think. We can't stay closed forever. The virus isn't going away, and a safe, effective vaccine is not on the horizon.

Timeforanotherusername
what science?

That would be the research that scientists do

What is patchy?

That there is so little of it.

Surely the facts speak for themselves?

Which facts?
That they don't get it as badly?
That they can spread it?
That schools in other countries have shutdown again because of outbreaks in schools?

No no no. If people can go back to pubs etc then schools have to go back. Why is it always about making the adults happy. Our kids are suffering at home and need to go back to school. There bloody better not be a decision to lock down again in sept.

Schools have to go back and if people have symptoms they isolate for 2 weeks or whatever. No more lockdown.

It will all be fine. Schools will be back as they are in other countries. This will all be forgotten and things will move on.

Local outbreaks will be dealt with and life will go on.

I don't know so much about Germany. They were back in a very limited way at first. They never have gone fully back, afaik. But they might have done very recently.

There was definitely a hoo ha in Denmark, contrary to our perception here. They have parents' unions there, too!

But schools are generously funded there and extra equipment , such as wash basins were provided to schools form central funds. They very much worked in transparent way to win over more public confidence. Still only got youngest in atm, mind.

Even if you accept the case for resuming the economy, the changes have been done in a way that is not business friendly.

You can go to places where it is difficult to have social distancing (or nearly impossible such as beaches, but not some places where it can be achieved (gyms) and where there is a ready made record of who attends, making track and trace easy to do.

As for schools, the government should have already started looking for extra venues such as church halls or parts of libraries to provide the extra classroom space needed.

@Redolent

Although long past parenting school-age DC I do hope that DD will not allow her DCs to go back to school until everything is certain. It is impossible - in my view - to set up social distancing in schools at any age to 18! I work sporadically in a [good, well disciplined] secondary school to 16 and there is just no way that the students are sufficiently disciplined to the standard required. No communal mixing whatsoever. Sitting in class 100% of the time...

Do you know what country we never hear about? Finland.

I wonder what they are up to. I imagine they controlled the virus really well in the first place and that is the really significant factor, of course.

Tories are putting the Economy above Education

At some point no economy = no education

Libraries are reopening though, so that space won't be available.

In Denmark, they tend to have all through schools,so they have used older students' classrooms and grounds. I don't know what will happen when the older ones go back but presumably they have a belief they will have , NZ like, squashed the virus soon.

The Netherlands is the latest country to say all schools secondary includes back full time after the summer. They have eased measures before the UK and doing OK

France and Germany also back. So why is it felt that UK is going to be different from those other places.

But it isn't? We are, therefore, the same as the Netherlands.

I don't think all areas of Germany are completely back.

France is quite similar to us and making quite similar decisions for similar reasons. I am quite glad they have done this before us as we can watch. It's literally for about 6 school days though so lots of kids aren't going.

France did, until last week, have phenomenally strict social distancing in its schools. and only the youngest were in.

Orangeblossom78

So why is it felt that UK is going to be different from those other places.

If it is felt that the UK is different it seems to becoming from those posters that want to stir and kick up some fuss.

@Oaktree55

Yes of course, only since Monday, should have said. But their infection rate is c500 per day and ours today is around 700. By September we should be able to follow France if all is going well. The french have said that they feel that pupils are not big transmitters and secondary school pupils are in masks. Teachers in primary can wear visors I believe but their choice. Not clear whether PPE expectations will be lowered in September, guess it depends what happens as they are basically out of lockdown now.

It is as if there is this strange British reverse exceptionalism. Very odd

I was talking to someone who lives in Finland today (!!)
She says "everything is back to normal" like "it never happened" where she lives, but she doesn't have kids so I suspect there could be social-distancing in their schools, it just doesn't touch her life.

Fripp point me to the science that says children are not low risk.

I'll have a look as it is the complete opposite of every bit of research I have seen.

If you are going to claim that the science is a patchy around kids being low risk then link it and evidence it. Not too hard surely.... . . .

@Orangeblossom78

WHO have praised the UK's easing of lockdown, from the BBC News

Dr Mike Ryan, the head of emergencies at the World Health Organization (WHO), has praised the UK for the way it is easing restrictions.

He said there had been a "steady, slow and step-wise exit from lockdown conditions" in the country.

Dr Ryan said the government had communicated the changes to the population at large and to the WHO – with a consistent dialogue between the four nations of the UK over regional differences.

He said testing in the UK had now increased and the "surveillance system is capable of understand where the disease is".

His comments came after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the next level of lockdown easing would take place on 4 July, when businesses such as pubs and restaurants can reopen under government guidelines.

Good quote. Of course it won't stop the constant whinging and whining negativity on Mumsnet , but we can't expect miracles. We're extremely lucky that we've been able to lock down for three months, but it can't go on for ever.

The children, especially those from poorer backgrounds have really been hung out to dry.

Why are pubs more important before children? If schools are back, people can get back to work and paying taxes.

There's not a strong chance, there's just a lot of speculation. Many other countries use 1 to 1.5 metres, we are only adopting it where 2 metres isn't possible. Pubs etc will also look very different than we are used to, there are plenty of mitigations that need to be adhered to, it's not going to be a free for all.

Why are pubs more important before children?

They aren't, but it's far easier to put feasible measures into place in a pub than in a school. I think schools should just go back personally, but obviously those that be don't think that's the case, therefore they can't. Things haven't been opening in order of importance, but in order of feasibility.